NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket: Proven simulation predicts surprising upsets, March Madness picks, and sleepers

Number 2 seeds boast a 145-11 (.929) all-time record versus No. 15 seeds in March Madness entering the 2025 NCAA Tournament. However, 15-seeds have upended 2-seeds in three of the last four NCAA Tournaments. This year’s second-seeded teams, which are Alabama, Michigan State, Tennessee and St. John’s, should be on upset alert. There’s more parity in college sports than ever with the arrival of the NIL and transfer portal, so exercise caution when filling out your 2025 March Madness bracket. Alabama will face No. 15 Robert Morris, which is on a 10-game win streak. RMU is 16-1 over its last 17 games, the lone defeat coming by just two points, while Bama is 4-5 over its last nine. It was just three years ago that a 2-seed SEC school, Kentucky, fell in the first round, so who’s bold enough to back the RMU Colonials with their NCAA Tournament bracket picks? Before you make your 2025 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida, and No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin last year. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past six tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run last year. It nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16 and was all over Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2025 March Madness bracket 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2025 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: the First Four winner of North Carolina vs. San Diego State will knock off No. 6 Ole Miss in the first round. Ole Miss hasn’t seen the Round of 32 in 12 years, while the Tar Heels and Aztecs have much more recent and notable March Madness success. San Diego State was the national runner-up in 2023 and made the Sweet 16 last year. UNC also had a Sweet 16 run in 2024 and was in the National Championship Game in the prior NCAA Tournament, falling to champion Kansas in 2022.

The Rebels were ranked most of the season, peaking at No. 16, but they fell out of the Top 25 entirely in late February. They enter March Madness with five losses over their last eight games, with a 13.8-point average margin of defeat in those setbacks. They also narrowly scraped by in the three wins, prevailing by three points or fewer in each of them. Ole Miss is going in the wrong direction entering the tournament, and its stay could be short-lived in facing a First Four team that will have confidence after winning on Tuesday.

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 13 Yale knocks off No. 4 Texas A&M in the first round. The Aggies average the most offensive rebounds per game in the nation, but you can only get an offensive rebound after missing a shot. That’s A&M’s problem — it struggles with shooting and ranks outside the top 300 teams in the country in FG percentage, 2P percentage and 3P percentage. Teams that can prevent offensive boards for A&M are teams that can beat the Aggies as Texas A&M is 1-4 when its opponent grabs 32-plus rebounds.

Yale ranks among the top 25 in total rebounds per game, defensive rebounds per game and total rebound percentage. The Bulldogs, unlike A&M, also don’t struggle with their shot, ranking 11th in FG percentage and eighth in 3P percentage. Yale, as a 13-seed last year, upset a fourth-seeded SEC school in Auburn, and one shouldn’t be surprised if the Ivy League gets the better of the SEC again with this matchup. See which other 2025 March Madness matchups to target here.

How to make 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a team that’s only ever won a single tournament game, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.