Nebraska’s Year 3 breakthrough under Matt Rhule still out of reach as Huskers can’t shake old script

LINCOLN, Neb. — Another chance at a Big Red revival. Another Saturday of being frustratingly close. Another reminder that Nebraska still isn’t there despite all the talk of a Year 3 breakthrough under Matt Rhule.

The Huskers’ 30-27 loss to Michigan extended one of college football’s cruelest streaks: 28 consecutive defeats to AP Top 25 opponents, a drought dating back to 2016. Every time Nebraska circles a game like this — the kind of program-changing opportunity that’s supposed to flip a rebuild from hope to results — the script ends the same way

This was supposed to be different. Rhule is in his third season in Lincoln, the stage when the other programs he turned around, Temple and Baylor, clicked into full form. Nebraska, which snapped its bowl drought last season, had reason to believe the same would happen in 2025. For a moment Saturday, it looked like the breakthrough had arrived. Dylan Raiola’s 52-yard Hail Mary to Jacory Barney Jr. on the final play of the first half sent Memorial Stadium into a frenzy. 

But the momentum didn’t last long. Michigan reasserted itself in the third quarter and never let Nebraska close the gap until it was too late.

Since the losing streak against AP Top 25 teams began nearly nine years ago, Nebraska is 14-40 (.259) in games decided by eight points or less — 10 more losses than the next closest FBS team over that span. Eleven of those defeats came against ranked opponents. Rhule himself is 0-18 against AP Top 25 opponents since leaving Temple, a number that underlines just how elusive these wins have been.

“Once the sadness dissipates on our end, there’ll be a lot of things to build on in terms of plays like that, plays where we jumped up and made a play,” Rhule said. “Those are the building blocks of hopefully getting to where we want to get to.”

That line — building blocks — is familiar. And indeed Nebraska has the type of building blocks under Rhule it had not had in previous iterations. A former 5-star recruit, Raiola is one of the nation’s most talented quarterbacks. He is a Nebraska legacy, but the program had to win a fierce recruiting battle for him and then hold onto him when SEC teams came calling in the transfer portal last offseason — proof of the program’s investment, which was underscored by big-ticket portal acquisitions. But in Year 3, the term “building blocks” does land differently. Fans don’t just want flashes. They want proof the foundation is finally sturdy enough to support something bigger. 

The cracks, though, showed quickly. Four trips to the red zone produced only 13 points. A missed 44-yard field goal in the first quarter stung. So did a fourth-and-1 stop at the Michigan 6 on the opening drive, a chance to plant an early flag that instead left Nebraska empty-handed.

That early red-zone futility set the tone for the rest of the afternoon.

“If you want to beat Michigan you’re going to have to get those plays,” Rhule said.

And Nebraska simply couldn’t get them. On the line of scrimmage, the Huskers were bullied. Michigan rushed for 286 yards, while Nebraska managed just 43. Raiola faced relentless pressure, was sacked seven times and picked off once — a mistake that set up the first of Michigan’s three long touchdown runs. Nebraska finished just 2-of-12 on third down, never sustaining enough offense to tilt the game back in its favor.

“I don’t like where we’re at right now,” Rhule said. “I feel like someone hit me with a hammer right now. I thought we would win the football game. It’s like anything else. There’s things that were exposed that have to be improved or we won’t be the team that we want to be. There’s other things that I thought were excellent. It’s just going back in methodically, the same process, the same approach we had after games we’ve won.”

Effort and heart are no longer enough. Nebraska has to start making the plays that matter.

Rhule’s words carried the weight of another missed chance; Raiola’s carried something else entirely, pushing back against the idea this loss would linger.

“A lot of people think this might break us, but I’m just telling you right now be careful,” the sophomore quarterback said. “We’re gonna come together and do something scary.”

The Huskers enter their bye week 3-1 before hosting Michigan State on Oct. 4. A College Football Playoff run, which the most optimistic of Nebraska fans held in the preseason as a quiet dream, looks increasingly fragile unless Nebraska quickly patches the holes Michigan exposed. 

Year 3 was supposed to be the turning point. Instead, Nebraska is stuck in reruns, watching the same script play out again and again.