NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, advice, best strategy for Week 4, 2025: Bypass New England

No double-digit favorites have lost yet in the 2025 NFL season, but Week 3 did bring perhaps the biggest upset of the year thus far as the Packers fell to the Browns as 7.5-point favorites. That was one of the first big hits for NFL survivor players, and now those who remain are formulating their Week 4 NFL survivor picks with the options beginning to dwindle a bit. The Bills are the biggest favorites on the board (-15) this week against the Saints, though many survivor pool players already used Buffalo as big favorites against the Dolphins in Week 3. 

The latest Week 4 NFL odds show six other games with a Week 4 NFL spread of 5.5 points or more, including Browns vs. Lions (-10), Patriots (-5.5) vs. Panthers, Titans vs. Texans (-7.5), Chargers vs. Giants (+6.5), Packers vs. Cowboys (+6.5) on Sunday night and Bengals vs. Broncos (-7.5) on Monday night. Those are the games many NFL survivor players will be targeting, but among those favorites, which ones bring the most value in NFL survivor pools? 

Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 39-19 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. The model can be used to crush the survivor pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. It survived through Week 1 by calling the Commanders over the Giants, Week 2 with the Ravens over the Browns, and Week 3 with Bills over Dolphins.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL schedule and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine. 

New users can also target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Patriots as they take on the Carolina Panthers. The Patriots are 5.5-point and -247 money-line favorites, as one of the home favorites in the Week 4 lines, but are coming off a 21-14 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Panthers, meanwhile, got into the win column in a big way by thrashing the Falcons. Fading Carolina prior to that game was a popular NFL survivor strategy. 

The model, however, projects this to be a one-score game, and only has New England winning 58% of the time, which is lower than many home teams this week. Drake Maye has had mixed results in three games and is still getting acclimated as the Patriots’ starting quarterback. He has played in 16 games over the course of two seasons, and is completing 68% of his passes for 3,061 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. For the season, he has completed 72.6% of his passes for 785 yards and five touchdowns with two interceptions. See which team to pick instead here. 

You can also use the latest FanDuel promo code to get $300 in bonus bets instantly:

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is confidently backing a team many have not used in survivor pools to win outright in more than 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that nails survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.