NFL odds, expert picks: Predictions, best bets, where to watch, stream Thanksgiving, ‘Black Friday’ games

How about a side of football to go with your Thanksgiving meal? The NFL has a jam-packed three-game holiday slate this Thursday, and the cherry on top is another “Black Friday” matchup on Friday afternoon, where the Raiders will visit the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The only way that this could get any better is by putting some extra change in your wallet leading up to the holiday shopping season, which is what we’re here to do. 

As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get sports betting picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more. 

If you haven’t yet, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this DraftKings promo code so you can make money, too. Ready? Let’s jump in.

Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 13? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Time: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Lions -3.5, O/U 50 (via Fanatics)

SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein has been on a roll with his NFL picks, owning a 98-63 record (+2324), and now he’s zeroing in on this Thanksgiving matchup between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions. The Lions are a a hefty 10.5 point favorite while the total sits at 48.5. We can tell you Hartstein is leaning Under the total, but to see his ATS pick for this game, you’ll have to head over to SportsLine. 

“If you’ve been following my picks throughout the season, you know that we are not scared away from laying big numbers when it comes to the Lions. They don’t like to just win, but they want to blow teams out of the water. That’s particularly true at home, where they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games at Ford Field and have covered the spread by an average of 22.3 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bears struggle mightily on the road, owning a 1-5 ATS record over their last six games away from Soldier Field. Let’s not overthink this one too much.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he is laying the 10.5-point spread with the Lions. Check out all of his Week 13 picks.

“The Bears have lost four straight while the Lions have rolled to the top seed in the NFC right now. Playing the Lions on the road is never easy, but it’s even tougher on Thanksgiving. Caleb Williams showed well last week and will here as well to keep the Bears close. Lions win it, but it’s tight.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he likes the Lions to beat the Bears, 30-27. Check out all of his Week 13 picks.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Time: Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free) 
Open: Cowboys -8, O/U 44.5 (via Caesars)

“The Cowboys upset the Commanders last week, so they have some life. The Giants have none. In a game where it’s Cooper Rush against Tommy DeVito, give me the home team — even though Dallas hasn’t been good at home this year. They find a way.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he like the Cowboys to beat the Giants, 24-17. To see all of his Week 13 picks, click here.

“I don’t want to tell anyone what their napping plan should be on Thanksgiving Day, but if you’re going to take a nap on Thursday, you have a three-hour window to do it and that window starts as soon as this game kicks off. I don’t want to say this is the worst Thanksgiving QB matchup in NFL history, but it has to be close: We have Tommy DeVito against Cooper Rush. 

“We haven’t seen anything like this in a Cowboys Thanksgiving game since Dallas sent out Chad Hutchinson to face Danny Wuerffel in 2002. Of course, that game ended up being so bad it was good. Wuerffel threw three interceptions and Hutchinson only completed 12 passes, but two of those went for touchdowns and the Cowboys ended up beating Wuerffel’s Washington team 27-20. If we get anything remotely like that in this game, I will consider it a success, but I’m not counting on it based on how the Giants played last week. 

“The Giants got destroyed 30-7 by the Buccaneers in Week 12 and a big reason that happened is because, apparently, everyone has given up on Brian Daboll, at least that was my takeaway from these Malik Nabers comments. When a rookie is calling out the rest of the team for being soft, that probably means they’re being soft. After scoring exactly seven points against the Buccaneers, the Giants now get to face a Cowboys defense that’s getting healthy and starting to play better. 

“The first start of DeVito’s career actually came against the Cowboys last season and he threw for just 86 yards in a 49-17 loss. The Cowboys probably won’t score 49 here, but I still think they win. The Cowboys have been horrible at home this year, going 0-5, so this game will probably be closer than anyone thinks, but I don’t think Dallas is bad enough to blow it.” — CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech on why he likes the Cowboys to beat the Giants, 24-17. To see his other picks for Week 13, click here.

When looking for help deciding on a pick for Cowboys games, you can find no one better than SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein. He is on a 27-10 tear on Cowboys picks, and that’s exactly what he’s providing here for the second game on the Thanksgiving slate. Hartstein has found a key X-factor that has him attacking one side of the spread. While we can tell you he’s leading Under the 38-point total, you’ll have to go to SportsLine to see that ATS pick. 

“The Giants are a mess right now, and it seems like everyone is pointing fingers inside that locker room. Meanwhile, the pivot to Tommy DeVito at quarterback didn’t provide any sort of boost offensively in a blowout loss at home to the Buccaneers on Sunday. Against a Micah Parsons-led Cowboys defense, I expect those struggles to continue as New York heads to Dallas on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are one of just two teams not to have an ATS win at home this season, but I expect that to change here. Cooper Rush has been solid over the last two weeks and should be able to move the ball against a Giants defense that is giving up 5.8 yards per play this year (fourth-highest in the NFL).” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he likes the Cowboys to cover at home against New York. To see the rest of his picks, click here.

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fubo (try for free) 
Open: Packers -3, O/U 48.5 (via BetMGM)

SportsLine’s R.J. White has been on a remarkable 73-30-2 roll when it comes to Packers games, so there is no one else you should be looking to before making a wager on this nightcap on Thanksgiving. We can tell you that White is leaning Under the total, but to see that ATS pick for the game as he looks to stay hot, you’ll have to go to SportsLine. 

“The NFL clearly hates the Miami Dolphins, because that’s the only way to explain why the league would force them to play at Green Bay in late November. Whenever I see that the Dolphins are playing on the road in a cold-weather city in late November, the first thing I have to do before making my pick is check the weather for the game and I have some bad news for the Dolphins: It’s going to be cold in Green Bay. 

“For most teams, that’s not a huge issue, but it’s kind of an issue for the Dolphins because no team in the NFL hates cold weather more than them. The game-time temperature on Thursday night is expected to be about 26 degrees, which is bad news for the Dolphins, because they’re 0-12 in their past 12 games where the kickoff temperature was below 42 degrees, including the playoffs. The Dolphins and cold-weather just don’t mix. There’s a reason you never see Dolphins swimming in the arctic ocean. At least, I don’t think you do. I didn’t actually do any research before writing that sentence. 

“Normally, the weather forecast would be enough to get me to pick against the Dolphins, but I’m not sure I’m going to do that here and that’s mainly because of Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins QB has been so hot during the month of November that he might melt the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field. 

“… The fact that Tua is playing well could be a problem for the Packers because every loss they’ve had has come against a team with a good offense. The Packers have faced four teams this year that rank in the top-10 in terms of offensive yards per game and they’ve gone 1-3 in those games. Their only win came on Sunday against San Francisco, but the 49ers were starting a backup quarterback, so I’m not sure I can even count that. 

“I think this is going to be a high-scoring shootout and it’s going to end with the Dolphins finally winning a game in cold-weather so that we all stop talking about it, even though we probably won’t stop talking about it.” — CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech on why he likes the Dolphins to upset the Packers at home on Thanksgiving night, 27-24. To see all his Week 13 picks, click here.

“The Dolphins come here playing well, especially Tua Tagovailoa. But this is a proving game of sorts for he and the Dolphins. He has to show he can win against a good team on the road. Green Bay seemed to get it going on offense last week against the 49ers. I think that carries over. Packers take it.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he like the Packers to take down the Dolphins, 28-22. To see all of his Week 13 picks, click here.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: Friday, 3 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Open: Chiefs -7, O/U 45.5 (via DraftKings)

“It looks like Aidan O’Connell is going to get the nod for the Raiders after Gardner Minshew went down for the year with a broken collarbone. O’Connell is just coming off injured reserve himself, so he’ll likely be shaking off rust on a short week against the defending Super Bowl champions, which is why we see nearly a two-touchdown spread. The Chiefs have been entrenched in one-score games throughout the season and have come out on top each time but have yet to truly dominate. Patrick Mahomes even admitted on Sunday that he “would love to win a game not by the very last play,” and I think he will get his wish this week. The Raiders are allowing opponents to score on 64.2% of their red zone trips this season, which is in the bottom 10 in the league. They also struggle on third down, meaning the Chiefs should be able to go on extended drives that result in touchdowns. Given what Las Vegas has on offense, this shouldn’t be close.” — CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he has the Chiefs covering against the Raiders on Friday. To see the rest of his Week 13 picks, click here.

SportsLine’s Mike Tierney has been the go-to source when it comes to betting Raiders games. Tierney is currently on a 11-3 run in games involving Las Vegas, so why look anywhere else when searching for a pick for this “Black Friday” matchup between the Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs? That’s especially true considering Tierney is zeroing in on one side of this lofty 13.5-point spread. To see that pick, head over to SportsLine. 

“The Raiders will start Aidan O’Connell here at quarterback after Gardner Minshew was lost for the year. That’s not a good thing against the Chiefs on the road. Kansas City hasn’t looked great this season, but this is the type of game that can get it rolling. It will.” — CBS Sports Senior NFL Analyst Pete Prisco on why he likes the Chiefs to blow out the Raiders, 31-14. To see all of his Week 13 picks, click here.