NFL predictions: How Chiefs-Broncos Week 11 showdown affects AFC West, Super Bowl odds

Even though they are in the midst of a seven-game winning streak and are tied for the best record in the league, the Denver Broncos enter Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season far from assured to capture their first AFC West title since 2015. A home victory against the division-rival Kansas City Chiefs certainly would boost their chances, though.

Denver enters the matchup at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. with an 8-2 record and a one-game lead in the AFC West over the Los Angeles Chargers, who were the last team to defeat the Broncos when they pulled out a 23-20 victory in Week 3 on a field goal as time expired. At 5-4, Kansas City is 2.5 games behind Denver.

Five of the wins during the Broncos’ current streak have been by four points or fewer, including their 10-7 triumph over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10. Denver hasn’t been particularly impressive since rolling past the Dallas Cowboys 44-24 in Week 8, as they entered the fourth quarter trailing the Houston Texans by eight points two weeks ago before a field goal on the final play gave them an 18-15 victory and struggled to generate offense while their defense carried them past the Raiders last time out.

The Chiefs got off to a rough start this year, losing their first two contests, but appeared to figure things out and won five of their next six games — all by double digits — to get back in the mix. Their surge got stalled two weeks ago, however, as they dropped a 28-21 decision to the Buffalo Bills on the road.

Kansas City has ruled the AFC West of late, winning the division title each of the last nine years. The club also owns a 73-56 record in the all-time series against the Broncos and won 16 consecutive meetings from 2015-23 before losing two of the last three.

Denver recorded both of those triumphs at home, and it reeled off seven consecutive victories in the series prior to the Chiefs’ aforementioned lengthy winning streak. The location of Sunday’s matchup suggests the Broncos should win, as they are 5-0 at home this year while Kansas City is 1-3 on the road, including a season-opening loss to the Chargers in Brazil while designated as the visiting team.

Under coordinator Vance Joseph, the Broncos boast one of the top defensive units in the NFL. They rank third in both total defense (270.7 yards allowed) and points permitted (17.3), are fourth against the run (91.2 yards allowed) and sixth versus the pass (179.5). 

Denver also leads the league with 46 sacks — 14 more than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks, who are tied for second place. Nik Bonitto is third in the league with 9.5 sacks while fellow linebacker Jonathon Cooper has recorded 7.5.

Offensively for the Broncos, Bo Nix is fifth in the NFL with 18 touchdown passes and has thrown at least one in every game thus far. As a rookie last season, he made six scoring tosses without an interception in two meetings with the Chiefs. Meanwhile, J.K. Dobbins is fifth in the league in rushing with 772 yards and is seeking the first 1,000-yard performance of his five-year career but could land on injured reserve after suffering a foot injury in last week’s win against Las Vegas.

Kansas City has quietly been strong on both sides of the ball as it ranks seventh in total offense (370.1 yards) and sixth in total defense (291.8 yards allowed). The Chiefs are fifth in passing offense (248.9 yards) thanks to two-time NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, who is fifth with 2,349 passing yards and seventh with 17 TD passes. They are seventh defending the pass (187.2 yards allowed) and have yielded 17.7 points per game, the fourth-lowest total in the league.

Although five of the Broncos’ last six wins have either been ugly or needed big fourth-quarter comebacks, SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team and its projection model currently still like their chances of winning the AFC West. But the ITL team’s model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, feels that a win by the Chiefs in their Week 11 showdown will make the difference between the clubs in their outlook for the division title extremely thin.

A Kansas City victory would give the Chiefs a better than 35% chance to win their 10th straight AFC West crown and reduce the Denver’s odds to 36.5%. However, the model says a triumph by the Broncos increases their chances for the title to more than 70% and reduces Kansas City’s to just under 8%.

Making the playoffs is almost a certainty for the Broncos, according to the model, and a loss on Sunday would do little to damage their chances. The Chiefs’ prospects for the postseason would take a hit with a defeat, but they still qualify in more than 64% of the model’s simulations.

The model says that despite being just above .500, Kansas City currently has a slightly better chance at representing the AFC in Super Bowl LX and winning the Vince Lombardi Trophy than Denver. That speaks to the Chiefs’ current run of success, as they’ve reached the Super Bowl in five of the last six years and won it three times.

The Broncos’ current prospects to finish with the No. 1 seed in the conference obviously are better than the Chiefs’, although Kansas City would draw much closer with a win on Sunday.

Kansas City is a 3.5-point favorite against Denver in the latest NFL odds. The Chiefs are 17-2 in their last 19 meetings with the Broncos, including a 13-1 mark with Mahomes under center as they rested most of their starters in a 38-0 loss in the 2024 season finale. Denver owned an 11-point lead in their Week 10 matchup last year before Kansas City rallied for a 16-14 victory.

The model believes Sunday’s clash also will be a close one and sees the Broncos covering the spread. However, it is predicting a 22-21 triumph by the Chiefs.