NFL predictions: How Eagles vs. Giants Week 6 Thursday Night Football impacts race for NFC’s No. 1 seed

Donning a green Philadelphia Eagles hat and a black hoodie, quarterback Jalen Hurts took questions from the media from behind a podium on Tuesday. His mood was less than jubilant, you could say, about 48 hours after the Eagles blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead at home to the Broncos and lost, 21-17, on Sunday. The defeat was Philadelphia’s first since Dec. 22 and ended a 10-game winning streak.

“Thank God it’s a short week,” said Hurts, whose team faces the New York Giants in the Thursday Night Football game. “It’s a tough, tough week in my house.”

The Eagles (4-1) aren’t familiar living with losing. And according to SportsLine’s Inside the Lines Team and Projection Model, Philadelphia certainly has more to lose than to gain on Thursday. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, already projects the Eagles to finish with fewer wins than both the Lions and Buccaneers (both 4-1) in the NFC. A loss to a 1-4 Giants team that ranks at the bottom of the model’s NFC power ratings would be a significant setback to Philadelphia’s hopes of earning the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

As much as the numbers say that Philadelphia needs to win in order to stay on track to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff bracket, perhaps what’s most at stake on Thursday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. is something that can’t be quantified: the reigning Super Bowl champions getting their mojo back.

This season, the Eagles, who are in their first season under offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, are averaging just 261.6 yards total yards per game, which ranks 30th in the league. Only the Titans (233.8) and Bengals (228.6) average fewer.

Philadelphia is rushing for just 99.8 yards per game (25th in the league). This comes one season after the Eagles ranked second in the NFL in rushing (179.3) with Saquon Barkley becoming just the ninth player in league history to rush for at least 2,000 yards.

The struggles on offense prompted Hurts, Barkley and receiver A.J. Brown to have a meeting amongst themselves.

“You’ve got to look inward,” Hurts said. “What can we control? How can we master our detail? How can we be better with the things that we can control?”

Philadelphia, which has won seven of the last eight meetings and 19 of the last 23 games against the Giants, is a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday.

Meanwhile, for the Giants, Thursday’s game carries little significance, according to the Projection Model. The team’s chances to win the division and make the playoffs do not swing significantly with either a win or a loss to Philadelphia. 

The model has New York at No. 30 in its Power Rankings and projects the Giants to be in a dogfight for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft. According to the model, they have a 15.8% chance to land the No. 1 pick, behind (or ahead, depending on your point of view) just the Titans (28.1%) and Jets (18.3%). 

An unexpected upset over the defending Super Bowl champions would obviously alter the Giants’ projections significantly. 

The Eagles clearly have more on the line on Thursday, and they know they have an opportunity to return to their elite level of play.

“I’m excited,” Barkley said about playing on a short week. “I know how the team’s going to respond. I believe in my heart because I know the type of men that we have in this locker room.”