NFL Thanksgiving overreactions: Lions playoff hopes dashed? Does Kansas City need to win out?

The turkey has been carved, family football games in the backyard have been won, and the NFL has ripped through a wild Thanksgiving slate. Coming into Thursday, the league’s triple-header was described as monumental, and for good reason. This wasn’t your typical holiday slate with one game standing above the rest, as every game carried with it a massive weight in terms of the playoff picture. 

We began the day with the Packers heading into the Motor City and taking down the Lions, while wrapping things up with the Bengals upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore. Sandwiched in between those two divisional matchups was the Chiefs and Cowboys squaring off in what was essentially a do-or-die contest for each of their playoff hopes, and Dallas coming away victorious. 

Naturally, there are plenty of storylines that’ll come out of this trio of games from the holiday. But which storylines should we take a face value and which should we shrug off as nothing more than an overreaction? Thankfully, we’re here to help slice through those storylines and determine just that. 

Detroit’s playoff hopes are dashed

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Lions are probably feeling dejected coming out of Thanksgiving, and for good reason. Their chances of winning the NFC North likely went up in smoke with their loss to the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field. That completed the season sweep for the Packers, and dropped the Lions to a mere 1-3 record within the division. While that creates a near-impossible hill to climb for the NFC North crown, all is not lost in terms of the Lions getting into the playoffs. They are on the outside looking in on the playoff picture at the moment and have zero margin for error, but there’s still a path for them to get in at this current snapshot. If they take care of business over the next two weeks against the Cowboys and the Rams (no small task), they could play themselves back in the picture with some outside help. 

Chiefs need to win out

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Things are getting pretty bleak for the Chiefs, who are now 6-6 on the season after a loss to the Cowboys. Not only does that dig them into a deeper hole in the AFC West race, but Kansas City’s playoff hopes are remarkably dwindling. At the moment, they are the No. 9 seed in the conference. With the main Week 13 slate still on deck, teams like the Houston Texans (6-5), Buffalo Bills (7-4), and Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) could all push further ahead of them with wins on Sunday. Speaking of the Bills and Jaguars, Kansas City would need to finish the year at least one game above them as they each own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The same could be said for the Texans by the end of Week 14 after they visit the Chiefs at Arrowhead. If the Chiefs lose that game or any other contest over their final five games, it’ll likely be curtains for their playoff hopes. 

Cowboys are going to make the playoffs

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Dallas Cowboys are suddenly one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Jerry Jones’ club is riding a three-game winning streak, and the previous two wins include both clubs that were in the Super Bowl a season ago. While that has Dallas rightfully flying first class on cloud nine, these wins don’t necessarily indicate that they are a shoo-in for the playoffs. At 6-5-1, there is still plenty of work that needs to be done. If we strictly look at the wild card race, the Cowboys need to catch the likes of the Packers (8-3-1), 49ers (8-4), or Seahawks (8-3). Green Bay already won its Week 13 game, while San Francisco and Seattle are both favored to win their matchups on Sunday, potentially pushing them to nine wins on the year. That creates quite the gap for Dallas. Is it impossible? No, but not a lock as it may feel in this moment.  

Packers are the real team to beat in the NFC North

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Thursday’s win over the Lions didn’t move the Packers into first place in the NFC North, but it may as well have. Being able to go into Detroit and pull out a win in that environment further showed that Green Bay is the team to beat in this division, even if they are momentarily looking up at the Chicago Bears. The Packers completed the season sweep of the Lions and have both of their contests against the Bears still left on the docket, giving them an opportunity to leap atop the NFC North by season’s end. Already, Green Bay is 3-0 in the division and is the more talented club when firing on all cylinders. Yes, they sometimes play down to their competition, but as the stakes rise as we head down the final few weeks of the regular season, I think their play will level up as well. 

Bengals will make playoffs with Joe Burrow back

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Cincinnati is now 3-0 when Joe Burrow starts for them this season. The club was certainly happy to welcome him back under center on Thanksgiving as he helped pave the way to a pivotal win over the Ravens in Baltimore. Seeing No. 9 slinging it for two touchdowns has the Bengals dreaming of making the playoffs, but that’s no guarantee. Even if they end the regular season on fire as they did a year ago, they could, in a similar fashion, still miss out on the postseason. This victory pushes the Bengals to a 4-8 record on the season. With teams like the Bills and Jaguars coming into Week 13 at 7-4, there’s a hefty gap for them to notch a wild-card spot. Their best path would be to win the AFC North, where they now own a 3-1 record. That could prove valuable in tiebreaker scenarios, but it also involves both the Steelers and Ravens cratering. It’s possible one of those teams falls by the wayside, but Cincinnati would also have to win out. Even with their defense playing well on Thursday night, that side of the ball is still at risk of costing them key games and dashing their playoff hopes. 

Lamar Jackson is in a slump

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Lamar Jackson isn’t right. Even as the Ravens were on their five-game winning streak heading into Thanksgiving, the offense didn’t exactly look right, and Jackson, in particular, seemed out of sync. He hadn’t thrown a touchdown in the two games entering Week 13, and not only did he fail the find the end zone again, but he also tallied three giveaways (one interception and two fumbles). In all, Jackson has five turnovers over his last three games with zero total touchdowns. Regardless of whether it’s health-related or not, if Jackson isn’t able to turn the tide soon, it could put the Ravens’ playoff hopes at risk.