NFL Week 10 overreactions: Jonathan Taylor the runaway MVP favorite? Super Bowl window closed for Bills?

The second half of the 2025 regular season is officially underway in the NFL. As the calendar dives deeper into November, now is about the time when teams either sink or swim. In Week 10, we started to see a little bit of separation in some pockets of the league. 

In Minnesota, the Baltimore Ravens continue to claw themselves back into the playoff conversation, winning their third straight game, with the latest coming against the Vikings. Meanwhile, New England extended its lead in the AFC East not only with a win on the road over Tampa Bay, but with Buffalo’s stunning loss to the Dolphins. Miami’s improbable victory wasn’t the only upset of the week, however, as the Saints took down the Panthers.

There was plenty to digest from Sunday’s action, but what are the developments that we should take seriously, and what are some that are more fluky? Below, we’ll figure out which overreactions from Week 10 are just that and which are legit.

Jonathan Taylor is the runaway NFL MVP favorite

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Jonathan Taylor has been sensational in 2025. Otherworldly even. He just tallied 244 yards and three touchdowns (including the game-winner in overtime) against the Falcons in Germany. Those 244 yards rushing were the most by any player in a game this season. It’s also his fourth three rushing touchdown game of the year (tied for the second-most in NFL history). Speaking of touchdowns, his 15 rushing touchdowns through his first 10 games are the most since LaDainian Tomlinson did it in 2006 when he went on to win MVP. Like we said, insane. 

However, let’s not get lost in the moment. Like it or not, the NFL MVP award is really the MV-QB award, so Taylor has a massive uphill battle to break those norms. Even if it’s close, the tie will go to the quarterback.  

Matthew Stafford is the true MVP favorite

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Speaking of quarterbacks and the MVP race, it’s Matthew Stafford who should be looked at as the favorite coming out of Week 10. The Rams signal-caller has been nothing short of prolific. In a 42-26 bludgeoning of the 49ers, Stafford completed 24 of his 36 passes for 280 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. That is the third straight game Stafford has thrown at least four touchdowns with zero picks, making him the first quarterback to accomplish that feat in NFL history. Stafford is currently on a streak of 22 passing touchdowns without an interception, which is the second-longest streak all time. He’s only looking up to Tom Brady in 2010 (26 straight), who he went on to win MVP that year. 

Buffalo’s Super Bowl window has closed

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Maybe the most stunning result from Week 10 was the Buffalo Bills being blown out by the Miami Dolphins, 30-13. This loss was compounded by the Patriots defeating the Buccaneers on Sunday, which extended their lead in the AFC East. Now, Buffalo trails New England by two games in the win column for first place in the division, and is currently losing in the head-to-head tiebreaker. Beyond where Buffalo currently sits in the standings, the jarring result does bring questions about whether or not this team has missed its window for a championship. That would be a bit of a stretch, however. Yes, Buffalo has its deficiencies — including at wide receiver — but with Josh Allen under center, this team still has a championship ceiling, even if that comes via a wild-card entry. 

Jaxson Dart needs to change his play style 

Overreaction or reality: Reality

If you watch Jaxson Dart this season, it’s both entertaining and frightening whenever he tucks it and runs. The Giants‘ first-round rookie can dazzle with his legs, and he rushed for 66 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. However, he also takes far too many hard hits, and once again left the contest after suffering a concussion. That put Russell Wilson under center, and New York ended up blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead to the Bears with him under center. This should be a lesson for the young signal caller. While his dual-threat ability makes him a tantalizing prospect, he needs to pick and choose his spots better in order to be available to his team from wire to wire. 

Tyler Shough is franchise QB  for Saints

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

New Orleans notched its second win of the season on Sunday and the first under rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, logging a 17-7 victory over Carolina. In the winning effort, Shough completed 19 of his 27 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns. Those are solid numbers for the second-round pick, but is it enough to have the Saints balk at the chance of selecting a quarterback prospect atop the 2026 NFL Draft? We’re not there yet. If Shough strings together a few more of these performances, the conversation can be had. Until then, however, New Orleans should continue to scout the nation for its possible QB1 of the future. 

Brian Daboll will be the next coach fired 

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Entering Sunday, you may have had Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel atop the bingo card of the next NFL coach to be fired. After the upset win over Buffalo, however, he’ll live to coach another week. The same may not be said for Brian Daboll. The New York Giants coach was already sitting on the hot seat, and the temperature has only continued to rise after his club’s Week 10 loss to the Chicago Bears. This was yet another blown fourth-quarter lead by the Giants. Not only have they lost back-to-back games when leading by 10 or more points in the fourth quarter, but the club is now 0-4 on the road in games when leading by 10-plus points on the season overall. That’s a recipe to get fired, no matter if Jaxson Dart left with an injury or not. 

San Francisco has left the playoff conversation

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Niners were blown out by the Rams at home, and are now behind both L.A. and Seattle in the division race, along with falling to the No. 8 seed in the conference. While that’s a grim picture, San Francisco is still very much in the playoff conversation. That’s largely thanks to a cupcake schedule over the next month-plus where they should be favored in most, if not all, of their contests. The 49ers visit the Cardinals next week, host the Carolina Panthers in Week 12, and then face the Browns in Cleveland in Week 13. After the bye, they host the Tennessee Titans. That’s a pocket where a four-game winning streak is very possible, which would suddenly put San Francisco at 10-4 heading into the final three weeks. 

Baltimore has entered the playoff conversation

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Suddenly, the Baltimore Ravens have won three games in a row and sit just a game under .500 exiting Week 10. At 4-5, they are just a game behind the Steelers for first place in the AFC North after Pittsburgh fell to the Chargers on Sunday night. They’re also only a game behind Jacksonville for the final wild-card spot. Looking ahead, the Ravens face the Browns in Cleveland before back-to-back home games against the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens will likely be favored in all three of those contests and, provided they take care of business, you’re looking at a 7-5 squad riding a six-game winning streak as they gear up to face the Steelers for the first time this season in Week 14. As surprising as it may have sounded when they dropped to 1-5 earlier this year, the Ravens are firmly in the playoff conversation. 

Steelers at risk of missing the playoffs entirely

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Further emphasizing that point above, Pittsburgh is now 5-4 and suddenly barely hanging on to first place in the AFC North. While their narrowing lead to the Ravens in the division will be the focus, there’s a real threat that Mike Tomlin’s club misses the playoffs entirely. They currently have a worse record than the Chargers (7-3) and the Bills (6-3). Pittsburgh has already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker with Los Angeles and will play Buffalo in Week 13. On top of that, the Kansas City Chiefs are a team currently on the outside looking in on the playoff picture that will likely jump into the fray down the stretch. With K.C. coming in, a team will need to go out, and that could end up being the Steelers, especially if Baltimore leapfrogs them in the division.