NFL Week 13 picks: Our experts face off on Shedeur Sanders’ second start, Bills against Steelers and more

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours from the CBS Sports family. We get a Turkey Day tripleheader on Thursday, as the Detroit Lions host Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys, and Joe Burrow makes his return to the field against the Baltimore Ravens.

Elsewhere around the NFL, Shedeur Sanders will make his second NFL start against Robert Saleh’s defense as the San Francisco 49ers come to town, the Buffalo Bills look to get back on track against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the New England Patriots host the New York Giants on “Monday Night Football.”

Which teams should you pick in Week 13, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Nov. 26, via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users can get $300 in bonus bets:

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

Dajani (Bears +7): I don’t want to attack Chicago sports fans, but we can all agree the 8-3 Bears are overrated, right? They have won four straight games, each by five or fewer points, and have allowed inferior opponents to remain in games. HOWEVER, do the Eagles really deserve to be favored by a touchdown? This team hasn’t looked good in over a month! A.J. Brown is mad about the inefficiency on offense, Saquon Barkley admitted he’s in a “funk” and then the team just tied the largest blown lead (21 points) by a defending Super Bowl champion all-time! I would be pretty shocked if the Bears won this game straight up, but seven points does feel like a lot. Prediction: Eagles 24, Bears 20

Dubin (Bears +7): Chicago has won four in a row to improve to 8-3, and none of those games has been decided by more than five points. The Bears have played seven one-score games this year and gone 6-1 in those contests. That’s not exactly sustainable, but it is a sign they’re able to keep games close and give themselves a chance to win. Given Philadelphia’s offensive struggles, I like the Bears to keep this one close as well, even if the Eagles ultimately prevail. Prediction: Eagles 23, Bears 20

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns

Dajani (Browns +5.5): I can’t believe I’m buying into the Shedeur Sanders hype, but here we go. The son of NFL legend Deion Sanders became the first Browns quarterback to win his first career start since Eric Zeier in 1995, and I think you could make the argument he looked better than Dillon Gabriel. Why else would Kevin Stefanski roll with Sanders as the starter moving forward? Here’s what I’m thinking: The 49ers defense clearly is not as talented as it has been in years past due to injuries, Brock Purdy raised some eyebrows by throwing three first-half interceptions against the Carolina Panthers on Monday night and then the Browns have one of the best defenses in the NFL. This environment will be rocking for the home underdog. Prediction: 49ers 17, Browns 13

Dubin (Browns +5.5): The Browns are a significantly different — and better — team at home than they are on the road. Their defense is as ferocious as they come, and I expect that they’ll be able to keep the Browns in this game. We saw Brock Purdy throw a couple interceptions under pressure against the Panthers on Monday night, and he’s likely to be under considerably more pressure on Sunday against Myles Garrett and Co.  … Prediction: 49ers 20, Browns 16

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Dajani (Bills -3.5): Remember a few weeks ago when we were all wondering if the Steelers were really going to blow a 3.5-game lead to the Ravens in the AFC North? Well, the Steelers blew a 3.5-game to the Ravens in the AFC North. I expect Aaron Rodgers to return this week after fracturing his non-throwing wrist, but I wonder how comfortable he’ll be with the injury. The Bills clearly aren’t some Super Bowl contender with this horrific run defense, but I’ll take Josh Allen to bounce back and cover the spread in the fourth quarter. Prediction: Bills 23, Steelers 17

Dubin (Bills -3.5): Aaron Rodgers seems like he’s going to start despite a fractured wrist. Is that wise? Probably not, but he usually gets what he wants in these situations. Could the Steelers run the ball down the Bills’ throats if they load the box and dare Rodgers to beat them down the field, where he’s been reluctant to throw? Because that’s probably the best way to beat the Bills these days. I’m not sure I believe Pittsburgh (averaging 4.0 yards per carry) is equipped to do that. Prediction: Bills 27, Steelers 17

Denver Broncos (-6.5) at Washington Commanders

Dajani (Broncos -6.5): The Broncos offense has been inconsistent at times, but the Commanders defense ranks second worst in the NFL. The Broncos defense on the other hand leads the league in sacks, quarterback hits, third-down conversion percentage, red-zone touchdown percentage and yards per play. Marcus Mariota has lost four consecutive starts while the Commanders have lost six straight. Broncos country, let’s ride. Prediction: Broncos 23, Commanders 10

Dubin (Broncos -6.5): Washington is likely not going to have Jayden Daniels for this game. Subjecting Marcus Mariota to this hellacious Denver pass rush is not going to go well, if you ask me. I don’t trust the Denver offense as far as either I or Bo Nix can throw it, but I do trust that defense a whole lot — especially against a backup QB. Prediction: Broncos 23, Commanders 13

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-7.5) (MNF)

Dajani (Giants +7.5): I have more questions about the Giants than usual entering this week. How will Jaxson Dart look in his return to the lineup, and how will this team bounce back after that deflating loss vs. the Lions that officially eliminated them from playoff contention? Plus, will this run defense ever improve? The Giants rank dead last in the NFL with 157.2 rushing yards allowed per game. The Patriots are 7-2 ATS during this current nine-game win streak, but five wins have come by six points or fewer. It doesn’t feel like they have truly blown out a lesser team in over a month. Plus, New England just lost offensive linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson to injury. Patriots win, but maybe this game is closer than you think. Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 20

Dubin (Patriots -7.5): The Giants could get Jaxson Dart back here, but I’m probably more concerned about their defense than I am about their offense. They are getting clocked on the ground to the tune of 5.9 (FIVE POINT NINE) yards per carry and just gave up 200 million yards (approximately) to Jahmyr Gibbs on Sunday. TreVeyon Henderson isn’t Gibbs, obviously, but he has the ability to rip off huge chunk gains. And New England still has Drake Maye playing really well. Prediction: Patriots 30, Giants 20