NFL Week 2 anytime touchdown parlay: Derrick Henry among top choices to score

The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. 

Best anytime touchdown bets methodology

We track the percentage of simulations in which each player scores a rushing, receiving, punt return, kickoff return, interception return or fumble return touchdown. We then compare that to the consensus betting line’s implied percentage and look for the ones where our percentage is at least as good as those odds.

We DON’T rely on straight betting value based on SIM% – ODDS%. We are not robots. We feel, we bleed, we love football.

We select our favorite bets based on situational factors, relevant history and BEST PRICE. If we have a 58% forecast and every major book has -135 to -145, we may not have a ton of value, but perhaps our forecast assumes the player’s backup is active when he’s highly questionable. We know if that backup is inactive, our percentage jumps to 67%. We’ll pounce on that action at the best price at the time of publishing (-135 in this example).

Shoutout to DraftKings for posting these lines really early and offering us three great values that can be parlayed for +410. You can bet this parlay at DraftKings here, where new users can get $200 in bonus bets and $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket from a $5+ first wager:

Derrick Henry -225 DraftKings

One big reason we have good value on the Ravens to cover a double-digit spread is Derrick Henry has reached “lock status” for anytime touchdowns but is still being priced like it is up for debate. The Ravens’ odds implied team total is 28.8. Even if the Browns manage to stop them on two scoring drives with FGs, that leaves basically four touchdowns. Additionally, make sure not to dismiss his chances of scoring through the air. He almost never did that in Tennessee but delivered for me last season vs. Tampa Bay.

As a member of the Ravens, he has scored a TD in 16 of 20 games. He deserves the 2023 Christian McCaffrey treatment, where he was -300 or more. Last week, we said the same thing about Kyren Williams, and he delivered. A salty King Henry, who had a critical fumble in the loss to Buffalo, delivers this week vs. the Browns.

Marvin Harrison Jr. +125 DraftKings

Sometimes it seems that his father and Peyton Manning had more chemistry in a single strand of hair than he and Kyler have, but not when it comes to scoring touchdowns. Harrison Jr. has averaged 0.5 TDs per game in his NFL career and 0.7 at home (5-4 over 0.5). The Cardinals get to play a bad Panthers defense that allowed 26 points last week and a whopping 35.1 points per game on the road last season. 

Kyler Murray is projected for 2 passing touchdowns, which syncs with Arizona’s near-26-point implied team total. Harrison Jr. has accounted for just 18% of team receptions as a pro but a whopping 41% of team receiving TDs. Our Murray-to-Harrison projection (0.8 TDs per sim) is higher than the odds would imply because we like Arizona to score 30, but even if you discount the projection by 15%, you still have well over a 60% chance of scoring in our opinion. Our Inside the Lines non-profit sportsbook would set this at -150, so to get +$$$ is wonderful pricing.

Jahmyr Gibbs -175 DraftKings

Considering Gibbs tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns a year ago with 16 last season, it would lead you to believe he would be at least -200 like Derrick Henry. But Detroit was shut down in Week 1, and Gibbs had just 19 rushing yards on 9 carries. But he did have 10 targets and 10 receptions. While he only had 31 receiving yards, the volume he got as a receiver when facing a tough defense makes me that much more confident that he’s in for 20 touches. 

The defensive matchup of the Bears at home is a heck of a lot easier than the Packers on the road. Gibbs has scored a rushing touchdown in 68% of his home games over his career. The -175 implies 63.5%, so we’d take this bet if it were just receiving TDs. When you add in his career 0.2 receiving TDs per game at home (21% over 0.5), then you get the tremendous value and a projection of over 0.8 touchdowns.

These are just a fraction of our best bets, all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team’s personal best bets for every NFL game.