NFL Week 6 picks: Broncos ground Jets, Dak Prescott’s Cowboys declaw Panthers

What was the most shocking result from NFL Week 5? Was it the Denver Broncos handing the Philadelphia Eagles their first loss? No, we had them +4.5. Was it the New England Patriots defeating Josh Allen on his home turf? No, we had them +8.5. How about Trevor Lawrence leading a game-winning drive against the Kansas City Chiefs? No, we had them +3.5. 

Yes, we had some great wins last week, but all jokes aside we also had some surprising losses. My cash cow (any team playing the Tennessee Titans) has been milked dry, the Washington Commanders showed up to SoFi Stadium and whooped the Los Angeles Chargers, and I attempted to fade future NFL MVP Baker Mayfield. Never again. 

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 10-15
Overall ATS record: 46-32
Straight up record: 51-26-1

Denver Broncos (-7) vs. New York Jets (London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Jets are the lone winless team in the NFL, and they are now tasked with playing the squad that just handed the Eagles their first loss of the season. The Broncos offense has been a bit inconsistent through five weeks, but this Vance Joseph defense has recorded the most pressures in the NFL with 89. The Jets offense on the other hand has allowed the most pressures in the NFL with 95. Nik Bonitto has as many sacks (seven) as the Jets’ entire team.

Favorites of seven or more points in international games are 8-2 ATS, and the winners of international games have covered the spread in 18 straight. Bo Nix is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in his career when favored by three or more points. Go Broncos. 

The pick: Broncos -7
Projected score: Broncos 24-13

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

Dillon Gabriel played OK in his first NFL start, completing 19 of 33 passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings. However, the Steelers at home fresh off their bye is a different kind of test. Mike Tomlin’s defense did not play very well to begin the year, but they may have gotten on track against the Vikings in Dublin. Pittsburgh has now registered 10 takeaways this season, which ranks No. 2 in the NFL.

Tomlin is also 26-6 in his career vs. rookie quarterbacks, which ranks second-best among the 23 head coaches with 15 or more games coached vs. rookie signal-callers since 1970. The Browns have lost 11 straight games away from Cleveland, and average just 14.6 points per game, which is tied for worst in the NFL. T.J. Watt is going to be a difference-maker in this game.

The pick: Steelers -5.5
Projected score: Steelers 20-10

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Rams are angry following their Thursday loss to the rival San Francisco 49ers, and they will take out their anger on what I presume will be a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team that just fell to the Houston Texans, 44-10. 

I expect Baltimore will get a couple other pieces it was missing last week back, but how much will that really help? This defense ranks second-worst in yards allowed per game (408.8) and dead last in scoring defense (35.4 points per game). This secondary has allowed four passing touchdowns with zero interceptions in two straight games, while Matthew Stafford leads the NFL in passing yards per game (300.6). He has gone two straight games with 375 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and zero interceptions!

The pick: Rams -7.5
Projected score: Rams 27-17

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The 2-3 Panthers are undefeated at home this season, and just came back from down 17 points to beat the Miami Dolphins this past Sunday, which tied the largest comeback win in team history. Rico Dowdle exploded for a career-high 206 yards rushing, and now gets a chance to tee off against his former team. However, I think the Cowboys are just the better squad.

The Cowboys are one of the most “fun” teams in the NFL. What do I mean by that? Well, they rank No. 1 in total yards per game (406.6), and dead last in yards allowed per game (412.0). That means the Panthers are going to score some points, but I think Dallas can out-score Bryce Young.

Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level right now, as he leads the league in passing completions with 139, ranks second in passing yards with 1,356 and is tied for third in passing touchdowns with 10. I’m going to back him on the road vs. a team the Cowboys are definitely three points better than. 

The pick: Cowboys -3
Projected score: Cowboys 28-20

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Cardinals are coming off an embarrassing loss to the previously winless Titans, in which they blew a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter. Jonathan Gannon got so upset with running back Emari Demercado that the team had to fine him for his actions on the sideline. The Cardinals have lost three straight games, and now, quarterback Kyler Murray is dealing with a foot injury that caused him to miss practice on both Wednesday and Thursday.

As for the Colts, they have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL in a season that has been defined by parity. Daniel Jones‘ offense has scored points on 65% of drives, which is the highest rate through five games by any team in the past 25 seasons, and the Colts are the only team in the NFL to rank top five in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Indy looks great, and defeated the lowly Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points last week. At home for the second straight game, I say Shane Steichen can cover the spread vs. his former coaching buddy. 

The pick: Colts -7.5
Projected score: Colts 30-17

Other Week 6 picks

Seahawks (+1.5) 21-20 over Jaguars
Chargers (-4.5) 21-14 over Dolphins
Patriots 23-20 over Saints (+3.5)
Raiders (-4.5) 20-13 over Titans
Buccaneers (-3) 26-21 over 49ers
Packers (-14.5) 35-20 over Bengals
Lions (+2.5) 31-27 over Chiefs
Bills (-4.5) 30-24 over Falcons
Commanders (-4.5) 35-23 over Bears