NL wild-card breakdown: Padres, Diamondbacks, Braves are favorites for playoff spot with Mets closing in

It’s September, and that means our full focus is on the various and sundry playoff races across Major League Baseball. For this exercise we’re narrowing that focus a bit and checking in on the wild-card races. We already looked at the American League wild-card fray, and now it’s time for the National League to have its stretch-drive inspection. 

Speaking of which, here’s how the NL bracket would look if the season ended today: 

• Bye: No. 1 Dodgers and No. 2 Phillies
• Wild Card Series: No. 6 Braves vs. No. 3 Brewers
• Wild Card Series: No. 5 Diamondbacks vs. No. 4 Padres 

It should be noted that none of the seeding is etched in any kind of lasting medium, such as Quikrete, which sponsors the Braves’ sleeve patch. It’s quite yellow. Can’t miss it. The Dodgers narrowly lead the Phillies for top spot in the bracket, and the Phillies in turn narrowly lead the Brewers for that last first-round bye. The higher stakes, however, involve those three wild-card berths. Now let’s have a closer look. 

The favorites

Padres (+3.0 GB) 

The Padres still have designs on the NL West title, but at 4 1/2 games behind the first-place Dodgers, their hopes are somewhat slim. The more urgent matter is remaining in playoff position. As you can see, there’s a great deal of compression among the top four teams in the wild-card chase, so even though the Padres are in the top spot they’re still in peril to a certain degree. The good news is they still have three games against the White Sox remaining. That’s prelude to a critical stretch to end the regular season that will see the Padres play three against the Dodgers in L.A. and three against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. Mike Shildt’s club would do well to lock up a berth before that stretch begins on Sept. 24. 

Diamondbacks (+2.5 GB)

The D-backs were seven games under .500 on the last day of May, but since then they’ve been one of the best teams in baseball. They also boast the top run differential among the wild-card contenders. As you can see above, they have just a 2 1/2-game cushion over the Braves and are in playoff position by just three games. That’s a narrow margin, and as such it’s worth pointing out that Arizona plays a fairly tough schedule the rest of the way. That docket includes seven games against the Brewers, three against the Astros, and, as noted, three against the Padres. 

Braves (+0.5 GB)

Given the season-ending injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider and the host of other major injuries to other core contributors, it’s impressive that the Braves would crack the bracket if the season ended today. The race for the last spot is almost as close as can be, and that means all eyes are on the penultimate series of the regular season in which the Mets visit Atlanta for three games starting Sept. 24. If paces hold, then the stakes of that series will be exceptionally high, to say the least. For the Braves, a seventh straight division title probably isn’t going to happen, but that’s not what they’re sweating at the moment. 

In the mix

Mets (0.5 GB)

The Mets, like the D-backs above them, were brought low by early struggles. On June 2, they were a season-worst 11 games under .500. Today, barely three months later, they’re a season-best 12 games over .500. That, as you know, is enough for relevance and contention in the NL. That late-September series against the Braves hints at a relevant subplot in this race, and that’s the strength of schedule. The Mets’ opponents the rest of the way have an average winning percentage of .533, or fourth-toughest in MLB. The Braves’ opponents, meantime, have an average winning percentage of .488, or eighth-easiest in MLB. Of particular note is that the Mets still have seven games against the first-place Phillies left to play. 

Longshots

Cubs (4.5 GB)

Here’s another team that’s surged to get back in it. An 18-8 mark in August helped make surprising post-deadline contenders out of the North Siders. The offense has been cooking of late. Longshot may seem unsparing for a team just 4 1/2 games out, but it’s getting late out there. The Cubs would also have to jump the Mets for that final spot. Craig Counsell’s squad is about to play six in a row against the Yankees and Dodgers, but after that it’s 10 in a row against the Rockies, A’s, and Nationals. That’s probably their chance to make a move. 

Cardinals (5.5 GB)

In similar straits to those found on the North Side of Chicago are the rival Cardinals. They’ve been .500-ish for some time but are finally getting healthy up and down the lineup and in the rotation. As well, they have a soft remaining schedule. All that said, it’s hard to put much faith in a team that’s been outscored by the opposition this season by more than 50 runs. Longshots indeed.