Paul Skenes vs. Shohei Ohtani: What to know about Round 2 of ‘big on big’ matchup between MLB stars

The Dodgers and the Pirates will continue their weekend series at 9 p.m. ET with a game that features a juicy subplot: the second career meeting between Los Angeles’ superstar DH Shohei Ohtani and Pittsburgh’s rookie ace Paul Skenes — two of the most compelling athletes in the world, no matter the sport of the league. 

Ohtani and Skenes previously squared off back in early June, when Skenes was weeks into his big-league career. The ensuing months have only added gravitas to the matchup. While Ohtani has furthered his case for becoming the first full-time designated hitter to win a Most Valuable Player Award (he continues to progress in his recovery as a pitcher, but he is not expected to return to the mound in-game until next season), Skenes is attempting to become the first player to ever start the All-Star Game and win the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Awards the year after being drafted. (Fernando Valenzuela checked those first three boxes. However, he wasn’t drafted, and his brilliant ascent occurred during part of his third professional season.)

With due respect to the eventual Manager of the Year, it’s conceivable that Ohtani and Skenes will take home the National League’s three biggest individual awards. As such, we think it’s fair to write that a meeting of this magnitude deserves more attention. With that in mind, let’s dive in on three things to know about Ohtani-Skenes 2.

1. Skenes won first round, Ohtani first battle

We suppose June 5 is the logical starting point for this article. That’s when Ohtani and Skenes first encountered one another during a game at PNC Park. They faced off three times that night: Skenes won the first matchup, Ohtani the second and the third.

Their first clash played out like something ripped from baseball’s lore, with Skenes recording a K on three swinging strikes. Skenes showed off his rare combination of velocity and command, beating Ohtani with a 101 mph fastball dotted on the inside corner, then with a 100 mph fastball to the furthest up-and-in point within the strike zone, and then, to mix things up, with a 101 mph fastball up and away. Observe:

As noted above, Ohtani struck back in his subsequent at-bats against Skenes. But that wasn’t until whiffing on each of the first five fastballs he saw. Ohtani did right the ship from there, working a full count before ripping a 415-foot home run to center field on another triple-digit Skenes fastball that caught too much of the plate. Again, observe:

“I like to call that big on big because I obviously beat him a couple of times earlier,” Skenes said at the time. “I think that was the right pitch to throw there, he’s just a pretty darn good player. Stuff like that is going to happen.”

The final meeting between Ohtani and Skenes that night presented the least drama. Ohtani fouled off a slider and took a ball before pulling a single to right field on a similar pitch to the one he homered on the previous at-bat.

Coincidentally, the single was Ohtani’s hardest-hit ball of the night, clocking in 107.6 mph, or a full two ticks hotter than his home run. 

2. Ohtani well-equipped for Skenes’ velocity

Perhaps this will come as no surprise given what happened in their first meetings, but advanced statistics support one conclusion: Ohtani can handle Skenes’ velocity.

Skenes has quickly established himself as the hardest-throwing starter in baseball. He’ll enter Saturday’s game ranked fourth in the majors in average four-seamer velocity at 98.9 mph. The three pitchers ahead of him are all closers: Mason Miller, Jhoan Duran, and Ryan Helsley. That’s appropriate, in our minds, since a good framework for describing Skenes to someone is “an elite closer with a starter’s command and stamina.”

Skenes’ special combination allows him to hector most opponents. Yet Ohtani is, fittingly, one of the few who has proven he’s capable of damaging top-end velocity.

Coming into Friday’s series opener, Ohtani was 9 for 18 this season against pitches that were 98 mph or hotter. His average exit velocity on those pitches, meanwhile, was 99.8 mph. That’s not skewed by a couple of well-struck balls, either: nearly 82% of Ohtani’s balls in play on extreme velocity pitches have cleared a 95 mph exit velocity. 

Now, to be fair, Ohtani has swung and missed at a higher-than-average clip against extreme velocity pitches — that, too, shouldn’t be so surprising given how he started his matchups against Skenes. Ohtani’s 40% whiff rate on 98-plus-mph pitches is well above the league-average mark (24.7%).

When Skenes talked about his approach versus Ohtani being “big on big,” he may have inadvertently spoiled the results of their matchups, too. Based on the underlying data, it seems likely that their plate appearances end in either hard contact or a K. It’s all or nothing.

3. When’s the next meeting?

This weekend will represent the last time the Dodgers and Pirates play this season and, therefore, the last guaranteed time we get a chance to watch Ohtani face Skenes. While it’s not likely, we do feel obligated to note that there is a possibility of the Dodgers and the Pirates meeting again in 2024, with that matchup taking place in October.

Of the two squads, the Dodgers have the more obvious pathway. They own a 2 1/2-game edge in the National League West and SportsLine gives L.A. a 98.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. Even if the Dodgers find themselves falling behind the San Diego Padres, they should be able to hold onto a wild-card spot.  The Pirates’ trek to October, conversely, is more treacherous. Coming into play on Saturday, Pittsburgh is 4 1/2 games back of the final wild-card spot and has lost five games in a row. The Pirates were also stuck behind three other teams, further complicating matters.

The most direct path to an Ohtani-Skenes postseason meeting is easy to plot. It would entail the Dodgers finishing with the worst record of the National League division winners, thereby requiring them to play a wild-card series against the last team in. The Pirates are a longshot to even secure the third wild-card spot, suggesting that’s probably their ceiling, barring something weird happening over the final month-plus.

Again, it’s not a terribly likely scenario (and if they don’t face off in the playoffs, the first Pirates-Dodgers series of 2025 is set for April 25-27). That makes it all the more vital to savor tonight’s sequences between Ohtani and Skenes, for these are the kinds of matchups you dream about during the offseason.