Penguins vs. Predators odds, props: Expert shares picks for Friday’s Global Series matchup in Sweden

Friday offers matinee NHL hockey courtesy of the Global Series as the Pittsburgh Penguins face the Nashville Predators with a 2 p.m. ET puck drop from Stockholm, Sweden. NHL Network has the telecast. There are a couple of Swedish players on both sides, and the teams will play again on Sunday. The Preds are the official home team today and are +105 underdogs with a total of 6.5 goals. I have a game wager and a player prop. 

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Penguins vs. Predators picks

• Nashville +1 (-160) 
• Filip Forsberg anytime goalscorer (+170)

In case you aren’t a huge hockey person, it’s important even in a neutral-site game to know which team is designated as the home side, because that club gets the last line change. That’s definitely one reason why I’m on Nashville +1. 

Pittsburgh is better than expected early on with 21 points through 17 games, but the Stanley Cup title window has shut for the future Hall of Fame trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. That being said, Crosby (11 goals, eight assists ) and Malkin (three goals, 18 assists) are having solid seasons despite their advanced ages. Crosby is the +165 goal-scoring favorite today, just ahead of Filip Forsberg (+170).

Despite that decent start, the Pens are still +20000 longshots to win the Cup, which are shorter odds than the Predators (+10000) even though Nashville only has 14 points in 18 games, sits last in the Central Division and likely won’t even make the playoffs (+900 to get in).

Perhaps the Penguins are coming back to earth as they have lost two straight and four of five, but the team is also incredibly banged up with the likes of No. 1 goalie Tristan Jarry and top-six forwards Rickard Rakell (Swedish) and Justin Brazeau among many players on injured reserve. Arturs Silovs (4-2-3, 2.49 GAA, .916 SV) should start in net today, and he has just one regulation loss in his past seven starts.

Nashville enters on a five-game skid amid a bit of turmoil with Ryan O’Reilly recently publicly apologizing for a frustration-fueled postgame rant and major trade rumors swirling around the team, with the most mentioned name being future Hall of Famer Steven Stamkos.

The Predators are much healthier than the Penguins, missing only the former Norris Trophy winner Josi and depth forward Cole Smith. It should be Juuse Saros (5-6-3, 3.11 GAA, .892 SV) in net, and he’s at least much closer to his native Finland this weekend. Saros is a big reason why Nashville is struggling so badly. He was pulled Monday in a loss at the Rangers and has just one victory with a 3.72 GAA and .865 save in his past seven.

Exactly half of all NHL regular-season games played outside North America have been decided by a one-goal margin or ended in a tie (23 of 46), including all four the last time games were played in Sweden. Pittsburgh swept Nashville last season with Crosby scoring two goals and adding four assists. 

The SportsLine Projection Model has Nashville winning in 53% of its simulations. I’m not a huge goalscorer props guy, but Swede Filip Forsberg, a longtime Nashville fixture, will be quite motivated to score in his native country. Oddly enough, all seven of his goals this season have come at home. And this is really home for Forsberg!