Penn State vs. Michigan State prediction, pick, odds, spread: Nittany Lions, Spartans eye Land Grant Trophy

The Land Grant Trophy isn’t exactly a prize for the ages this year — but it’s still a rivalry game worth playing for when Penn State (3-6) and Michigan State (3-6) meet in a battle of winless Big Ten teams just trying to salvage slim chances of bowl eligibility in disappointing seasons. It marks only the second time in 14 meetings that neither side is nationally ranked. 

The Nittany Lions are a month removed from firing longtime coach James Franklin and nearly pulled off a stunning upset last week against No. 2 Indiana before surrendering a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minutes. The Spartans suffered heartbreak of their own prior to a bye week with an overtime loss at Minnesota, matching their longest losing streak in nine years. Penn State, meanwhile, has dropped six consecutive games for the first time since 2004.

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Saturday’s matchup will be the 39th all-time meeting between the two programs. While the Spartans have won six of the last 11 contests, the Nittany Lions have taken four of the past five to hold a narrow 19-18-1 edge in the rivalry series, which has been played annually since its inception in 1993.

Quarterback situation: Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith is keeping his quarterback plans flexible for Saturday. Redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic threw for 311 yards in his first career start at Minnesota, ranking third-most by a freshman/redshirt freshman and fourth-most for any Spartans debut. But junior Aidan Chiles — who followed Smith to Michigan State from Oregon State last season — remains in the mix. Smith said both players will continue splitting first-team reps in practice, and using either or both in the game is “all on the table” as the Spartans look to regain momentum.

Record chasers: Kaytron Allen became Penn State’s career leader in rushing attempts last week, surpassing Evan Royster (2007-10). Allen has 3,613 career rushing yards, just 319 shy of Royster’s all-time mark. Meanwhile, Nicholas Singleton continues climbing the Nittany Lions’ record books as well, tallying 41 rushing touchdowns and 51 total touchdowns in his career, putting him within reach of Saquon Barkley’s all-time school marks of 43 and 53, respectively.

Late down woes: Both teams have struggled in critical late-down situations against FBS opponents this season. Michigan State’s offense converts just 37.4% of late downs, ranking 99th in FBS, while Penn State is more effective at 46.5% (33rd). Defensively, the Spartans allow conversions on 55.3% of opponents’ late downs (92nd), and the Nittany Lions give up 54.0% (106th).

Where to watch Penn State vs. Michigan State live

Date: Saturday, Nov. 15 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Spartan Stadium — East Lansing, Michigan
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App, Paramount+ Premium

Penn State vs. Michigan State prediction, picks

The records may be the same, but the talent disparity heavily favors Penn State. While Michigan State has fought hard with a 5-1-0 ATS record vs. Big Ten opponents — the Nittany Lions possess far more firepower on both sides of the ball. Last week’s near-upset of No. 2 Indiana showed Penn State hasn’t quit under interim coach Terry Smith, and quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer was decent, keeping the offense balanced. That could be key against a Spartans pass defense that ranks fourth in the Big Ten in yards allowed per attempt (7.6) against FBS opponents this season. With bowl eligibility still on the line and a chance to cap a tough season on a high note, Penn State should leave East Lansing comfortably.  Pick: Penn State -7.5

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Who will win and cover in each Week 12 college football game? Legendary Vegas expert Bruce Marshall is on a 29-17 roll on college football picks. Visit SportsLine now to see all his college football picks.