Pete Prisco’s Week 1 NFL picks: Jaguars outscore Dolphins, Colts upset Texans, Giants over Vikings

Week 1 of the NFL season is the most challenging when it comes to picking games. I know I say that every year, but that’s the reality.

That’s why we usually stink.

We think we know these teams as they come out of training camp and the preseason, but do we really? You can’t get anything from preseason games, so it’s simply being reliant on the knowledge of the roster, especially when it comes to who is playing.

Every year I say I hope to get off to a fast start with these picks, but seemingly every year I don’t.

Time for a change.

I like this week’s card and I like a lot of dogs. So let’s get it going right way with a good first-week showing as the dogs will be barking — and some will win outright.

NFL Week 1 picks? Nothing to it. Just watch. 

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

This rematch of the AFC Championship game will feature two of the best in the NFL. Lamar Jackson is playing behind a rebuilt offensive line, which could be a problem early in the season against a team that loves to blitz. The Chiefs will be better this year on offense than a year ago, which will show up here. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs defense both get off to good starts. Chiefs take it. 

Pick: Chiefs 24, Ravens 18 (Result: Chiefs 27, Ravens 20)

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Peacock)

This first-ever NFL game in Brazil features two of the better teams in the NFL. The Packers found out Jordan Love could be their guy last season, and I think that will continue here. The Eagles have shored up their secondary, but they were terrible against the pass last year. Packers take it as Love has a big night and the attacking new-look defense of the Packers plays well enough. 

Pick: Packers 33, Eagles 28 (Result: Eagles 34-29)

Prisco likes the Packers to upset the Eagles in Brazil, but what does the SportsLine Projection Model — up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception — think of the historic showdown? Check out that prediction, as well as picks for all of the Week 1 games, right here.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This will be Russell Wilson vs. Kirk Cousins as both teams have new veteran quarterbacks. Wilson and the Steelers didn’t look good in the preseason, but Cousins didn’t play and is coming off a torn Achilles. The Steelers defense will be a tough matchup, but I think the Falcons will be able to turn over Wilson and get some short fields. Falcons win it at home. 

Pick: Falcons 23, Steelers 17

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Cardinals were a feisty team last season and will be even better in 2024. But this is a tough way to open, on the road against a Super Bowl contender. The Bills have a lot of new faces, but Josh Allen will still be Josh Allen. Even so, I think Arizona will keep this close. Bills take a tight one. 

Pick: Bills 27, Cardinals 24

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Bears have received a lot of the hype this summer with the addition of Caleb Williams. But this will be his first start. That’s tough for a rookie. The Titans will counter with Will Levis in the first game for new coach Brian Callahan. I think the Titans will keep this one close, but the Bears will win it late. 

Pick: Bears 23, Titans 21

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Joe Burrow is back healthy for the Bengals in this one, which immediately makes the Bengals a contender. Being at home is even more of an advantage against a Pats team that has roster limitations. New coach Jerod Mayo will have this team playing a tough brand of football, but in the second half it will be Burrow who takes over as Jacoby Brissett struggles. 

Pick: Bengals 26, Pats 17

Houston Texans (-3) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a rematch of the game the Texans won in Week 18 to get to the playoffs last year. The Colts didn’t have Anthony Richardson in that one, but he’s back now at quarterback. C.J. Stroud will build on his 2023 rookie season, but opening on the road is tough. The Colts will hang around here and find a way to win it late. 

Pick: Colts 24, Texans 23

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This will be a high-scoring game. Both teams should be really good on offense, while the defenses might take time. Miami is fast, which will cause problems for the Jacksonville secondary. But the Jaguars will also score against a Miami pass rush that is missing some key players. The Jaguars will win it late with a field goal. 

Pick: Jaguars 34, Dolphins 31

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

New coach Dave Canales will try and jump-start quarterback Bryce Young in Year 2, but playing in New Orleans is never easy. The Saints should be good on defense, but they have some line issues that could impact the offense. Even so, look for the Saints defense to limit Young and the Panthers offense as the Saints win it. 

Pick: Saints 29, Panthers 16

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Sam Darnold is the quarterback for the Vikings, playing in the stadium where he began his career with the Jets. The Giants will have Daniel Jones back as he’s recovered from a torn ACL. The Giants defense will be better this season with the addition of Brian Burns. They will force Darnold into a few turnovers, which will lead to points. Giants take it. 

Pick: Giants 23, Vikings 21

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Jim Harbaugh will be making his coaching debut for the Chargers, which means a more physical team. Justin Herbert is back from his foot injury, but how healthy is he right now? Gardner Minshew will start for the Raiders, which gives the Chargers a big edge at quarterback. Harbaugh will win his first game as the team’s coach thanks to a good game from Herbert. 

Pick: Chargers 28, Raiders 17

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Bo Nix makes his first start at quarterback for the Broncos in arguably the toughest place to play. It will be loud. This will be the debut for new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, who throws a ton of looks at quarterbacks from the defensive side. That could be an issue for Nix. Look for Seattle to win it big. 

Pick: Seahawks 30, Broncos 17

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Deshaun Watson has been banged up some for the Browns, but he will start at quarterback. The Cowboys have CeeDee Lamb back after his contract, which will be big. Cleveland is a tough place to play for an opener, but the Cowboys will be up to it. Look for the defense to attack Watson and turn him over as the Cowboys win a tough road game. 

Pick: Cowboys 22, Browns 20

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

This will be the first start for Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Facing a Todd Bowles defense is never easy, but it’s even tougher on the road in your first start. Look for Baker Mayfield to have success against the Commanders secondary here. Bucs take it. 

Pick: Bucs 27, Commanders 20

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock, fubo)

This is a rematch of the playoff game from last season won by the Lions. The return of Matthew Stafford to Detroit will be less of a story now. The bigger story for the Rams is the defense now without the retired Aaron Donald. The Lions are physical up front, which is why I think they will run it right at the Rams to control the game. Lions take it with a big game from Jahmyr Gibbs. 

Pick: Lions 28, Rams 21

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)

This is a long trip to play a team in an opener on Monday night for the Jets. It’s a big-time challenge against the defending NFC champions. But the Jets have Aaron Rodgers back. He has struggled at times against the 49ers in his career. Look for the Jets to keep this close, but the 49ers will win it late.

Pick: 49ers 23, Jets 21