Pete Prisco’s Week 6 NFL picks: Desperate Chiefs win shootout vs. Lions, slumping Chargers upset by Dolphins

After two good weeks, it was back to average for me last week with my NFL picks.

The good news is that it wasn’t a losing week. I went 8-6 straight up and 7-7 against the spread.

That’s a cooler the way I had been going.

My season records are now 57-20-1 straight up and 43-35 ATS. Anytime you can be over .500 ATS after five weeks, that counts as a good start to the year.

Like the teams in the NFL, now is go time. This is when contenders emerge and pretenders start to fade away.

I plan on being a contender, so here we go.

Bet NFL Week 6 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager. Click here to get started:

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at New York Giants

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Prime Video

The Eagles lost for the first time last week and haven’t looked that impressive in getting to 4-1. They need to run Saquon Barkley more and they will in this one against his former team. The Giants turned the ball over too much in losing to the Saints last week and I think Jaxson Dart will have some troubles against the Eagles defense. Eagles big.  

Pick: Eagles 29, Giants 17 | Odds via BetMGM

Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs. New York Jets (in London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Jets are a disaster right now at 0-5, showing nothing on defense. The Broncos are riding high after beating the Eagles last week. Bo Nix played better in the second half of that game than he did all year, which will carry over here. The Jets don’t tackle and the Broncos will take advantage of it. 

Pick: Broncos 26, Jets 14 | Odds via BetMGM

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Colts impressed in beating the Raiders last week, while Arizona is coming off the type of loss to the Titans that can demoralize a team. This will be a real challenge for the Arizona defense and I think Daniel Jones will continue to play well. Colts take it. 

Pick: Colts 27, Cardinals 24 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Steelers are coming off a bye, while the Browns are coming off a loss to the Vikings in London last week. Dillon Gabriel made his first start at quarterback in that game and handled himself well, but didn’t roll up big numbers as they played it safe. The Steelers have played well in getting to 3-1, especially Aaron Rodgers. But this Browns defense will keep them in the game. It’s close. 

Pick: Steelers 21, Browns 18 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Cowboys are playing consecutive road games, but they are rolling on offense with Dak Prescott. The Panthers came back to beat Miami last week, but slowing Prescott will be a big challenge. Look for the Cowboys offense to continue to roll as their defense continues to improve. Dallas wins it. 

Pick: Cowboys 30, Panthers 21 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is a long trip for a beat-up Chargers team that didn’t play well in the second half last week in their loss to the Commanders. The Dolphins are coming off a bad loss to the Panthers. Their defense has struggled to stop the run, but the Chargers have injury issues on their line and in the backfield. The Dolphins will win this one behind a good game by Tua Tagovailoa. 

Pick: Dolphins 27, Chargers 26 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Ravens are a mess, while the Rams are coming off a bad loss to the 49ers at home. The Ravens will likely be without Lamar Jackson again, and the banged-up defense can’t stop anybody. The Rams defense didn’t play well against the 49ers, but will here. Rams take it.

Pick: Rams 31, Ravens 17 | Odds via BetMGM

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (+3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Patriots are riding high after beating the Bills on Sunday night, but this will be a tough game coming off that big victory. The Saints beat the Giants last week as Spencer Rattler and the defense played big. This will be a challenge for the Patriots and Drake Maye. It’s close, but Maye will win it late. 

Pick: Patriots 22, Saints 21 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

This is a long trip for Seattle, but the Jaguars are playing on a short week, which evens it out. Seattle didn’t look good last week on defense. But this has the look of a shootout to me. Look for the Jaguars to continue to roll as Trevor Lawrence wins a wild one against Sam Darnold.

Pick: Jaguars 33, Seahawks 30 | Odds via BetMGM

Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Titans are playing consecutive road games after winning in miraculous fashion last week at Arizona. The Raiders were blown out by the Colts last week in game in which they looked lifeless. Geno Smith hasn’t played well, but I think he will play better here. The Raiders win it.

Pick: Raiders 27, Titans 17 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Cincinnati Bengals (+14.5) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Bengals have major offensive issues with Jake Browning playing quarterback, which is why they traded for Joe Flacco. Whoever plays quarterback is on the road against a good Packers defense coming off a bye. This will be ugly for the Bengals again as Green Bay wins it, thanks to a defense that didn’t play well the last time out. 

Pick: Packers 31, Bengals 17 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The 49ers are rested after playing last Thursday, which will help the injured. They upset the Rams, while Tampa Bay beat Seattle behind Baker Mayfield last week. Mac Jones played well for the 49ers, but Mayfield and the Bucs are on a hot streak. They will keep it rolling. 

Pick: Buccaneers 30, 49ers 20 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Chiefs are on a short week off a tough loss to the Jaguars on Monday night. But they face a banged-up Lions team. The Chiefs are in desperation mode, and I think that will show here. The Chiefs will win a high-scoring game, taking advantage of the injured Lions defense. Patrick Mahomes will win it late. 

Pick: Chiefs 34, Lions 30 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Monday, 7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Bills are coming off their first loss Sunday night, while the Falcons are coming off a bye. The Falcons will present a tough challenge for the Bills defense, but I think this game will be about Josh Allen. He will start to hit shots down the field in the passing game, which hasn’t happened much this season, as the Bills win it. 

Pick: Bills 33, Falcons 27 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Chicago Bears (+4.5) at Washington Commanders

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

This game matches Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels, the two top picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. They met last year in a game won on a Hail Mary by Daniels. The Bears are coming off a bye and two straight victories, but this game will be won by Daniels outplaying Williams. Commanders take it. 

Pick: Commanders 31, Bears 27 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook