Predicting Week 12 college football overreactions: Lane Kiffin should stay put, Pitt emerges as CFP contender

It’s fair to say that Week 12 of the 2025 college football season is shaping up to be one of the most important slates yet. There’s a lot on the line as multiple teams jockey for spots in the 12-team College Football Playoff and, now that rankings are released weekly, we have an even better idea of how the landscape looks. 

With that in mind, there are several prominent programs facing make-or-break games this weekend. For instance, neither No. 9 Notre Dame nor No. 22 Pittsburgh could brunt another loss and still keep their playoff hopes intact — especially not Notre Dame, which does not have the benefit of a conference championship at the end of the year. 

So it’s fascinating that Notre Dame and Pittsburgh must face one another Saturday. No. 10 Texas and No. 11 Oklahoma don’t play each other, but they do have to contend with ranked conference foes and, with two losses already, their respective seasons are likely on the line. 

It’s a lot of action for one weekend of college football and the CFP Rankings will almost assuredly look entirely different next Tuesday. 

We here at CBS Sports have been overreacting to each college football weekend for a while now. Let’s try and manifest some into existence for a change ahead of the 12th week of the season. 

Lane Kiffin shouldn’t go anywhere 

No. 7 Ole Miss continues its push for a playoff appearance Saturday as it hosts a Florida team searching for a new coach after the midseason firing of Billy Napier. Ironically, Kiffin’s name has received plenty of buzz in connection with Florida’s vacancy. 

Kiffin has also been linked to LSU and there’s been a prevailing thought — for quite some time — that he would jump at the chance to fill a high-level opening. This is not the year to do that. 

Kiffin’s Rebels should dispatch the Gators handily. In that, Kiffin should realize how good he has it at Ole Miss. He could do no wrong in Oxford. He has steadily built Ole Miss into a legitimate national competitor while teams like Florida have been mired in decades of inconsistency. 

Why would he leave one rebuild for another? LSU is a little more stable — on paper, at least — but there have been plenty of red flags cropping up in the early days of its coaching search, including interference from the state’s governor and the “will they, won’t they” nature of Verge Ausberry’s promotion to athletic director. 

Going to either Florida or LSU would also increase the level of expectations that Kiffin faces. LSU just fired a coach who produced multiple double-digit win seasons because he was unable to win a title. Kiffin could cruise at Ole Miss with consistent nine or 10-win campaigns. 

It just seems like an unnecessary risk when he already has it made with the Rebels. 

Pittsburgh is championship quality 

Pittsburgh has flown under the radar all season even though it has landed inside the top 25 of each of the first two College Football Playoff rankings. The Panthers have quietly won five games in a row to emerge as a real contender for the ACC Championship Game and beyond. 

Saturday will serve as their coming out party. It’s an ideal chance to make some noise, as they welcome No. 9 Notre Dame to Acrisure Stadium in a colossal matchup between two programs that really need the win. 

The nation will recognize Pitt’s legitimacy after it takes down the Fighting Irish. This will be Notre Dame’s second road test since the start of October. The only other away game the Irish played in that span was at one-win Boston College. 

Outside of that, Notre Dame has lost its only road contest against a ranked opponent, though that came all the way back on Aug. 31 at Miami. Pittsburgh will be able to limit Notre Dame’s explosive rushing attack with a defense that is tops in the ACC against the run. 

If the Panthers can put the onus on Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr — especially in what should be a hostile environment — they can pull out the stunner. 

The CFP’s Group of Six team will come from outside the American

Conventional wisdom this season has regarded the eventual winner of the American Conference as the Group of Six’s most likely College Football Playoff representative. After all, the American is filled to the brim with seven and eight-win teams, some of which — like South Florida — have marquee wins over Power Four programs on their résumés. 

Memphis was the highest-ranked (outside the top 25) Group of Six program in the initial College Football Playoff rankings and South Florida followed suit on Nov. 11. Navy, Tulane and North Texas are all still in the hunt, as well. 

The problem with the American is that it continues to cannibalize itself. Navy lost to North Texas. North Texas lost to South Florida. South Florida lost to Memphis. Memphis — somehow — lost to UAB and dropped a pivotal game against Tulane. Tulane suffered a bad setback against UTSA. 

It’s a mess, and it’s going to get messier Saturday when South Florida drops its road game to Navy. That will allow a program outside of the American Conference, like James Madison, to enter pole position. 

James Madison remains unblemished in conference play and its lone loss on the year came by 14 points against Louisville, a potential ACC champion, on the road. If the Dukes can finish undefeated and win the Sun Belt, they should have a compelling case against whatever champion emerges from the beat-up American.    

Jerry Mack will be a top coaching candidate one day 

If you’re not familiar with Jerry Mack, it’s time to learn his name. The former assistant coach at Tennessee and with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL got his first crack at being an FBS head coach at Kennesaw State. 

In just his first year in that capacity, and in Kennesaw State’s second season as an FBS program, he has the Owls looking like a favorite to win Conference USA. This just one year removed from a 2-10 campaign, as well. 

Kennesaw State is 5-0 in league play this year and, on Saturday, Mack’s squad will take a commanding lead in the standings when it downs fellow undefeated C-USA opponent Jacksonville State. Mack may not be a hot coaching name this cycle, but he will be down the road if he sustains the success.