Prisco’s Week 10 NFL picks: Buccaneers slow down Patriots, Packers edge Eagles

The calendar turned from October to November and I turned from being hot to just hot garbage with my NFL picks.

Week 9 was the worst week of them all for me this season. I went 4-10 against the spread and 6-8 straight up. That’s putrid.

That takes my season ATS record to 68-67 and my straight-up record is now 92-42-1. That’s not close to being good enough. 

I did have some tough ATS losses last week. I had the Bengals, Texans and Jaguars, all of whom could have easily been winners. Instead, it was a bad start to the month.

Let’s just hope it doesn’t stay that way. November is for surging, not sinking, so let’s get back on track. 

Bet NFL Week 10 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users who win a $5 wager get $300 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass:

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-8.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime

The Raiders are a mess, while the Broncos are surging. Denver has a fierce defense that will slow the Raiders offense and get after Geno Smith. Bo Nix will do enough at home to get the Broncos their third straight victory to stay atop the AFC West. 

Pick: Broncos 28, Raiders 14 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-6) (in Germany)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. on NFLN (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

Both of these teams are coming off road losses, which will make this an even bigger challenge. The Colts offense didn’t look good against the Steelers, but I think they bounce back as Jonathan Taylor gets going again. Bijan Robinson will get his for the Falcons, but I think the Colts – who traded for corner Sauce Gardner this week — will handle the Falcons run game better. 

Pick: Colts 30, Falcons 23 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (+4.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

Both of these teams got much-needed victories last week with the Vikings really impressing in beating the Lions on the road. The Ravens came to life at Miami and I think that will carry over here. Brian Flores will challenge Lamar Jackson in a big way with his schemes, but I think Jackson will get the best of him with his legs and his arm.  Ravens take it. 

Pick: Ravens 27, Vikings 20 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Buffalo Bills (-9.5) at Miami Dolphins

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Bills are coming off an emotional victory over the Chiefs, while the Dolphins suffered another bad loss to the Ravens last Thursday. This could be a spot for a letdown, but the Bills have owned the Dolphins in recent years, especially Josh Allen. That won’t change here as the Bills avoid a letdown. Bills big.

Pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 19 | Odds via BetMGM

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-1.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is one of the dog games of the week, featuring two teams coming off a bye. Both needed it. Both teams have quarterback issues, but at least the Browns have the better defense. The Jets traded away captains Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams this week. That won’t play well. I think the Browns win it behind their defense. 

Pick: Browns 21, Jets 17 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-1.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Jaguars are banged up in a lot of spots, but the Texans might not have C.J. Stroud, who is in the concussion protocol. The Jaguars are playing consecutive road games, which is tough. This is a tough pick because of all the injuries, but I will go with the Texans behind their defense because I think Stroud will play.   

Pick: Texans 23, Jaguars 17 | Odds via BetMGM

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is the best game of the week, with both teams legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Bucs are coming off a bye, which they needed. They are getting healthier. It’s also nice to be at home. Baker Mayfield will outplay Drake Maye to win it as the Bucs snap the Patriots winning streak. 

Pick: Bucs 30, Patriots 24 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Saints are playing consecutive road games against a physical Panthers team. The defense will be a challenge for Tyler Shough, who will be making his second start. Carolina will continue to run the ball to eat clock and move the chains. I think that’s good enough in a low-scoring game. 

Pick: Panthers 21, Saints 10 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Giants are struggling, while the Bears are playing good football. The Bears have played well on offense, while the Giants defense hasn’t come close to living up to the hype. Look for Ben Johnson and the offense to have another big game as the Giants continue to struggle. 

Pick: Bears 33, Giants 17 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Seahawks are playing as well as any team in the league and have a dominant defense and a big-play offense. Arizona is playing consecutive road games on a short week, which is tough. They are also keeping Jacoby Brissett in at quarterback. They should. He will keep it close.  

Pick: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Detroit Lions (-8.5) at Washington Commanders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Commanders will be without quarterback Jayden Daniels, which means Marcus Mariota starts. That’s not their biggest issue. The defense is bad. The Lions weren’t as good on offense last week in the loss to the Vikings, but that will change here. Jared Goff will light up the Commanders.  

Pick: Lions 35, Commanders 23 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

This is an enormous NFC West game in a tight division race. The 49ers have played well with Mac Jones playing, but Rams quarterback Matt Stafford is on fire. It will be a challenge for the undermanned 49ers defense to slow the Rams. But I think they show up and play well. It’s close. 

Pick: Rams 26, 49ers 24 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

These two are coming off victories with the Steelers really impressing in beating up the Colts. The defense came alive in that one. With the Chargers losing tackle Joe Alt, that could be a problem for Justin Herbert. But I think he will play well enough to find a way to win this at home.       

Pick: Chargers 29, Steelers 23 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Packers were stunned last week in losing at home to Carolina, while the Eagles are coming off a bye. The Packers had to be looking ahead to this game. They played like it. I think they get back on track and play much better. They tend to play better against good teams. Jordan Love wins it with a late touchdown pass.   

Pick: Packers 30, Eagles 27 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook