Projecting the 2025 NFL playoff field: Ravens miss out, Chiefs’ AFC West reign ends, NFC’s surprise top seed

The 2025 season has turned into one of the most unpredictable years in recent NFL history. The Chiefs have won the AFC West nine straight times but enter Week 10 in third place. The Bills have won every AFC East title since 2020 but currently look up at the Patriots in the standings.

This feels like a year where the playoffs could be flipped-turned upside down. Since it’s now November, we’re going to start the process of trying to figure out who’s going to make the postseason this year.

The beauty of the NFL playoff race entering Week 10 is that all 32 teams are still mathematically alive, which means, yes, even the Titans and Jets could reach the postseason. I’m guessing that they won’t, but they could, and that’s what matters here.

To help you figure out who’s going to make the playoffs this year, we’re going to be publishing a projection every week for the rest of the season. These projections will be based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh will plug some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulate the rest of the season. Using those numbers, we’ll project the 14 teams that we expect to make the playoffs.

In our first projection from the 2024 season, our computer correctly predicted all seven AFC playoff teams and five of the NFC’s seven, so you’ll definitely want to pay attention here.

With that in mind, let’s get to the projection. 

Projections via SportsLine

1. Buffalo Bills (AFC East Champion)

Although the Bills (6-2) are currently behind the Patriots in the division, the computer expects Buffalo to end the year as the AFC East champion. The Bills have a 57.7% chance to win the division while the Patriots are sitting at 42.3%, according to the computer. The two teams will face each other at Gillette Stadium in Week 15 — a matchup that could decide the division. The Bills are viewed as the overall Super Bowl favorite by the computer, with Buffalo getting a 14.5% chance to win it all. No other team in the NFL is above 9.5%. 

2. Denver Broncos (AFC West Champion)

The Chiefs have won nine straight AFC West titles, but their reign will end this year, according to the computer. The Broncos (7-2) are projected to win the division by finishing a game ahead of the Chiefs. Of course, the Broncos will probably need to beat the Chiefs on the field for this to happen, and they’ll get their first crack at Kansas City in Week 11. (The two teams also face each other on Christmas Day in Kansas City).

3. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South Champion)

The computer doesn’t think that the Colts (7-2) will finish with the AFC’s best record, but it does view Indy as any AFC division’s biggest lock right now. The Colts are getting a 80.8% chance to win the AFC South, which is the highest percentage for any favorite in an AFC division. If the computer ends up getting this one right, it would be the Colts’ first division title since 2014.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North Champion)

The Steelers (5-3) currently have a two-game lead in the AFC North, and the computer thinks that Pittsburgh will be able to hold on. The Steelers have a 72.3% chance of winning the division while the Ravens are sitting at just 26.3%, according to the computer. The advantage for the Steelers is that if they go just 5-4 over their final nine games (with one win over the Ravens), then Baltimore would have to go 7-2 just to match them. The Steelers and Ravens will play each other in Weeks 14 and 18.

5. New England Patriots (Wild Card 1)

The Patriots are currently on top of the AFC East, but the computer doesn’t think that they’ll end the season there. Instead, it has New England earning the top wild-card spot — still impressive for a team that finished 4-13 last season. One thing working in New England’s favor is the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the AFC.

6. Kansas City Chiefs (Wild Card 2)

The Chiefs haven’t entered the playoffs as a wild-card team since 2015, but the computer expects that to happen this year. The Chiefs have just a 26.9% chance of winning the AFC West, far behind the Broncos’ 54%. The computer isn’t giving the Chargers much of a chance of winning the division either, with their odds at 19.1%.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (Wild Card 3)

The computer doesn’t think that the Chargers can win the AFC West, but it does have them comfortably making the playoffs as the final wild-card team. The Chargers have a 68.9% chance of reaching the postseason and are projected to finish a game ahead of their closest contenders: the Jaguars (43.1%) and Ravens (33.4%).

Other AFC Playoff Chances: Jaguars (43.1%), Ravens (33.4%), Texans (17.3%), Bengals (1.8%), Browns (0.5%), Jets (0.1%), Dolphins (0.1%), Raiders (0.0%), Titans (0.0%).
Note: The Raiders and Titans aren’t eliminated, but their odds are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them.

AFC Wild-Card Round Projection
(7) Chargers at (2) Broncos
(6) Chiefs at (3) Colts
(5) Patriots at (4) Steelers
Bye: Bills

NFC Playoff Projection

Projections via SportsLine

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South Champion)

When it comes to predicting the NFC South winner, there’s not much to compute. The Buccaneers (6-2) have a 96.3% chance of winning the division, according to the computer. The surprise here is that the Bucs are projected to outlast the Eagles, Seahawks, and Rams for the NFC’s top seed. The Bucs also have a 9.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl, which is the highest of any team in the NFC. 

2. Seattle Seahawks (NFC West Champion)

The NFL’s most unpredictable division right now is the NFC West. The computer views the race as a coin toss between the Seahawks (6-2) and Rams. Seattle has a 41.7% chance of winning the division while the Rams sit at 40.8%. The 49ers are expected to make the playoffs but have just a 17.1% chance to take home the division crown.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East Champion)

No team in the NFC East has repeated as champion since 2004, but the computer thinks that drought will finally end. The Eagles (6-2) are essentially a lock for the division title with a 94.2% chance of winning the NFC East.

4. Green Bay Packers (NFC North Champion)

The Packers (5-2-1) could see their tie vs. Dallas pay off, as the computer has them winning the NFC North by a half game over the Lions. Green Bay has a 44.1% chance of winning the division with Detroit right behind at 39.4%. The Packers already own a win over the Lions, and the teams will meet again on Thanksgiving in Detroit.

5. Los Angeles Rams (Wild Card 1)

The Rams (6-2) are projected to finish with the NFC’s third-best record, but the computer has them behind the Seahawks, and if that happens, L.A. will be stuck playing on the road in the wild card round.

6. Detroit Lions (Wild Card 2)

The Lions (5-3) finished as the NFC’s top seed last year, but the computer doesn’t see that happening again. Detroit actually has the highest Super Bowl odds of any NFC team (9.2%). The Eagles (9%) and Buccaneers (8.9%) are right behind them.

7. San Francisco 49ers (Wild Card 3)

The computer clearly loves the NFC West with three teams projected to make the playoffs. Despite injuries, the 49ers (6-3) are expected to do just enough to earn the final wild-card spot, with a 76.1% chance to make the playoffs — well ahead of the Bears (41.5%), who are projected as the first team out. 

Other NFC Playoff Chances: Bears (41.5%), Vikings (20.2%), Panthers (14.2%), Cardinals (11.6%), Cowboys (8.8%), Falcons (3.4%), Commanders (2.9%), Giants (0.1%), Saints (0.0%).

NFC Wild-Card Round Projection
(7) 49ers at (2) Seahawks
(6) Lions at (3) Eagles
(5) Rams at (4) Packers
Bye: Buccaneers