Should Washington Spirit be on upset watch against Racing Louisville as NWSL playoffs begin?

On paper, it is hard not to favor a playoff perennial in a face-off between them and a postseason newcomer, the Washington Spirit’s quarterfinal clash against Racing Louisville easily nestles into this narrative in a quick one-over of the NWSL playoff schedule. Even if the heavyweights are expected to dominate in the opening round of the postseason, though, Saturday’s fixture between the Spirit and Louisville might sneakily be the weekend’s most competitive battle.

To put it simply, the Spirit are on upset watch. They may be one of the NWSL’s behemoths, bankrolled by women’s soccer’s most ambitious owner in Michele Kang while hoarding some of the world’s top talents like Trinity Rodman and Croix Bethune. The sum of their impressive parts means they cruised to a second place finish in the regular season, clinching that spot with weeks to go until Decision Day. Head coach Adrian Gonzalez has essentially been operating with a skeleton crew since, though – 11 players were unavailable for Sunday’s 1-0 defeat at the Utah Royals, and the list will only get so much shorter in time for Saturday’s playoff game against Louisville. Gift Monday and Leicy Santos should be back in the mix after an excused absence and illness, respectively, and Bethune could also be available. It is still unclear what type of role Rodman will play, if any, on Saturday, just three weeks removed from sustaining an MCL sprain.

With or without Rodman, Monday will be a focal point for the Spirit after an eight-goal regular season, placing her well inside NWSL’s top 10 goal scorers. The Spirit are undoubtedly a different team without her, though. While they have won eight of the 15 games she has played this season, they only have four wins in the 11 matches she did not play, while their goal differential with her stands at +13 and -3 without her. Their current two match losing streak might be an anomaly, a result of rotation after a quarterfinal at home was secured, but momentum is not on the Spirit’s side. They have just two wins in their last seven, smack in the middle of the NWSL with nine points earned during that stretch.

How to watch Washington Spirit vs. Racing Louisville, odds

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 8 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
• Location: Audi Field — Washington, D.C.
• TV: CBS | Live stream: Paramount+
• Odds: Washington Spirit -150; Draw +265; Racing Louisville +330

Racing Louisville’s plans to play spoiler

The promise of a knockout tournament means hope is inherently built into any playoff run, especially so for the lower-ranked teams, but true upsets are usually few and far between. There is a genuine sense of opportunity for Louisville, who have survived on-field trials and tribulations to reach the postseason for the first time.

Louisville went on a run of conceding goals in the 90th minute, doing so in four of their five games at the end of summer and winning just once. They have truly reversed course since, though, losing once since and entering the postseason on a five-game unbeaten run. They are tied for second on points in the last five weeks of the regular season, one point shy of NWSL Shield winners’ Kansas City Current‘s total of 12 and boast the league’s second-best defensive record with just four goals against. It is the type of defensive record that could stump the Spirit if they are without Rodman, a game state that suits Bev Yanez’s side just fine.

Yanez’s group prefers to play without the ball, dead last in the regular season for possession and touches per game, comfortable against a Spirit side that ranks high on the NWSL’s possession charts. They are an imperfect team in attack, leading the NWSL with an average of 14.7 shots per game but generate just 1.5 expected goals along the way, fifth-best in the league. They have two players who make up the difference for them, though in Canada international Janine Sonis and rising U.S. women’s national team talent Emma Sears.

Louisville are arguably overreliant on Sears, who has scored around 30% of the team’s goals this season, but the 24-year-old easily ranks amongst the NWSL’s best attackers this season with 10 goals. Sonis, meanwhile, plays a sizable role on a team that ranks fourth in chance creation and the right back herself is in the NWSL’s top three for assists, expected assists and chances. Sears and Sonis’ individual brilliance has lifted Louisville at times, the pair boasting enough quality on their own to make their team the trickiest lower seed in the playoffs this season.