Stanley Cup contender tiers: Maple Leafs, Oilers among teams in win-now mode while others have time to wait

When the puck drops on opening night of the NHL season, every fan base has hope. Some of that hope is irrational, but it’s there nonetheless because everyone can talk themselves into their team coming out of nowhere to go on a special run.

Having said that, it’s time to confirm some of those prior beliefs while also squashing the dreams of others. That’s because we’re looking at Stanley Cup contender tiers today. We’ve put every team in one of six tiers based on how realistic their Cup chances are. Those tiers are as follows:

• Stanley Cup or bust: Teams that can (and need to) get the job done now.
• Stanley Cup contenders: Realistic threats to win it all.
• Dark horses: A couple of things have to come together, but it’s possible.
• Squint and you can see it: A lot of things have to come together.
• Try again next year: Some nice pieces in place, but not quite there yet.
• Try again in 3-5 years: There is some real work to be done here.

Now let’s take a look at which teams are on the cusp of glory this and which ones are a few miles behind.

Stanley Cup or bust

Edmonton Oilers: They were one win away from the Stanley Cup last year, and the Oilers will try to finish the job this time around. On paper, Edmonton might be the best team in the league. It does help to have two of the top five players in the NHL, but this forward group is deeper, and Evan Bouchard has emerged as a legit No. 1 defenseman to complement Mattias Ekholm.

Toronto Maple Leafs: I’m not totally convinced the Maple Leafs’ roster makes them a clear Stanley Cup favorite, but the urgency needs to be at an 11 out of 10. Toronto decided to run it back with the “Core Four” one more time, but John Tavares and Mitch Marner are on expiring contracts. It’s now or never for this group.

New York Rangers: The core of this team isn’t getting any younger, and it has suffered devastating playoff exits in each of the last three seasons. The Rangers’ four highest-paid forwards are all on the wrong side of 30, and goaltender Igor Shesterkin is reportedly looking to break the bank with his next contract.

Dallas Stars: After bowing out in the conference finals for the second straight season, the pressure to get over that hump will only grow in 2024-25. Aside from some questionable tweaks to their blue line, the Stars might come back even stronger this season. Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque will get the chance to make an already deep forward group even better.

Florida Panthers: They did just win their first Stanley Cup in team history, but the Panthers have the roster to repeat, and they need to capitalize on that championship window while it’s still wide open. Florida doesn’t have the same level of desperation as some other teams in this tier, but it does have a great opportunity to lift the Cup again.

Stanley Cup contenders

Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon is coming off a Hart Trophy campaign, and Cale Makar is the best defenseman in the league at his peak. Those two alone make the Avs true contenders, but I do think the addition of Casey Mittelstadt late last season will prove to be a great move in 2024-25. He should solve Colorado’s second-line center issue, which will take some of the burden off MacKinnon.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils decided they were done allowing goals this summer, so they added Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon to the blue line while also acquiring goaltender Jacob Markstrom. Add that to an elite young core of forwards, and New Jersey has the recipe for something special. Look for the Devils to shake off last year’s disappointment and go on a deep run.

Vegas Golden Knights: Don’t forget about the 2023 Stanley Cup champions just because of their early postseason exit last year. This roster still has plenty of juice, and now the Golden Knights will get a full season of Tomas Hertl, who was acquired right at the buzzer on trade deadline day. The biggest question for the Golden Knights will be their ability to stay healthy for a full season.

Carolina Hurricanes: Few teams could afford to lose two top-four quality defensemen to free agency, but Carolina is built different. The Hurricanes are as deep as any team on the blue line, and they still have plenty of talent up front, even after losing Jake Guentzel to the Lightning. As is usually the case with Carolina, the question is the lack of a truly elite goal-scorer. Who can the Canes count on for consistent scoring in the postseason?

Nashville Predators: Nashville has had elite goaltending and a superstar defenseman for a while now, but they’ve lacked elite finishers at the top of the lineup. That’s no longer the case. Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault join Filip Forsberg to create a fearsome trio of trigger men. Age is a concern with this group, but they will be dangerous if Father Time isn’t a factor this year. 

Boston Bruins: After losing to the Panthers in the playoffs two seasons in a row, the Bruins decided they needed to make some upgrades. Boston brought in Elias Lindholm to provide a better No. 1 center option, and Nikita Zadorov adds some size and physicality to the back end. As long as the Bruins can get star goaltender Jeremy Swayman signed and don’t have to roll with Joonas Korpisalo as the starter, they’ll be at the top of the East standings all season.

Tampa Bay Lightning: The Bolts had a chaotic offseason. They traded away star defenseman Mikhail Sergachev, reacquired 35-year-old Ryan McDonagh, let Steven Stamkos walk in free agency and signed Jake Guentzel to a massive contract in his place. In the end, I do think Tampa got better at forward but worse on defense, so that may be a wash. This team still has high-end talent, and if all else fails, Andrei Vasilevskiy is back there to stop the puck.

Vancouver Canucks: After an impressive 2023-24 season in Rick Tocchet’s first full season as the head coach, the Canucks are looking for an encore performance. The potential for Vancouver to break out as a contender was always there. It’s just that it hadn’t been realized until last season. Now the Canucks just have to prove they can replicate that success with the defending Western Conference champs in the same division.

Dark horses

Los Angeles Kings: In the past couple seasons, I’ve liked the Kings a lot and probably would have placed them in the contenders tier. However, three straight first-round losses to the Oilers combined with some roster turnover have Los Angeles in the dark horse category. Throw in an ankle injury to Drew Doughty, and now the Kings have some very serious questions. The key for the Kings will be whether some highly-touted prospects (i.e. Brandt Clarke) can start taking over.

Minnesota Wild: The path is clear enough that I bumped Minnesota up a tier while writing this. Kirill Kaprizov gets more help from youngsters like Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi. Brock Faber continues to develop into a Norris Trophy defenseman. The goaltending elevates above putrid. The blue line stays healthy. The Wild could be a sneaky team in the Central Division.

Winnipeg Jets: The Jets were a great team last season. They notched 52 wins and 110 points while riding great depth and elite goaltending. Then the bottom fell out in the playoffs. The team was bad, and Connor Hellebuyck was even worse. I have no doubt about Hellebuyck’s ability to bounce back, and that alone can make the team a contender, but I do wonder whether Winnipeg has the horses at the top of the lineup to go toe-to-toe with the West’s best in the postseason.

Squint and you can see it

New York Islanders: You don’t even really need to squint to see how the Islanders can go on a deep run. Ilya Sorokin is one of the best goaltenders in the world, and he’s capable of stealing multiple series. It just feels like the same movie all over again with the rest of the lineup.

Utah Hockey Club: According to the Vegas odds, this team should probably be a tier or two lower, but I love this roster. It may be a year too early for Utah, but the addition of Mikhail Sergachev gives the team a true No. 1 defenseman, and there is potential littered up and down the forward group. Clayton Keller. Dylan Guenther. Logan Cooley. Matias Maccelli. Salt Lake City is in for a treat.

Washington Capitals: In Spencer Carbery’s first season behind the bench, the Capitals were a surprise playoff team, thanks in large part to Charlie Lindgren standing on his head in goal. That formula isn’t sustainable, but Washington did upgrade its defense. Relying on Pierre-Luc Dubois as a No. 1 center hasn’t exactly worked for other teams, but maybe he can make it work in Washington.

Pittsburgh Penguins: This era of Penguins hockey is just hanging on by a thread. Sidney Crosby can try to will this team into a playoff spot, and he just might, but it could also get ugly. Are Cody Glass and Kevin Hayes the solutions to Pittsburgh’s forward depth? Probably not, but we’ll see how much magic Crosby still has up his sleeve.

Try again next year

Detroit Red Wings: After narrowly missing the playoffs last year, Red Wings fans are hungry for an end to their eight-year playoff drought. I’m just not sure it comes this season. Detroit is a serious regression candidate this season, and the offseason additions didn’t really move the needle in the East playoff race.

Buffalo Sabres: A lot went wrong for the Sabres last season, but some good did come out of it. Adding Bowen Byram to this defensive group is really exciting, and I’m pretty sure Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the long-term answer in goal. The complementary pieces on this team still need some work, so I’ll recommend patience for one more year in Buffalo.

Ottawa Senators: My bold prediction for the Senators last season was that they’d win a playoff round. That was not only a swing-and-miss, but the bat flew into the stands. The ceiling for this young core is high, but we also saw what the floor looks like. Beyond that, I’m not sold on the defense, and I have concerns about how Linus Ullmark will perform outside of Boston’s defensive environment.

Seattle Kraken: I was hoping the Kraken would be up a tier or two this season, but that’s just not the case. Brandon Montour was expensive, but he does provide an upgrade on defense. The issue is that Chandler Stephenson got over $43 million, and I don’t think he adds a ton to the forward group, so it may be a repeat of last year in Seattle.

St. Louis Blues: I debated moving the Blues down a tier, but they have a few great players at the top of their lineup. The problem is that, until they overhaul an aging blue line, they will alway be at least one year away from being a threat in the West.

Try again in 3-5 years

Montreal Canadiens: The Canadiens being this low isn’t a knock. I like what they’re building, but that’s exactly it. GM Kent Hughes is still in the midst of a very promising rebuild, especially with Juraj Slafkovsky finding his footing last season. It might take a few years, but Montreal is on its way to being a wagon.

Anaheim Ducks: I want to get excited about the Ducks, but their on-ice results the last couple of seasons have been horrid. Hopefully things start to improve this year, and there’s reason to believe they will. Young stars like Mason McTavish, Leo Carlsson and Pavel Mintyukov make this team worth watching.

Chicago Blackhawks: The Blackhawks’ plan is already well underway. Let Connor Bedard develop into a bona fide superstar, and build around him with prospects and outside acquisitions. Between Bedard’s continued development and some moderate upgrades, Chicago should be competent, but the finished product is still a couple seasons away.

Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia was a surprisingly feisty bunch last season, and that’s a credit to the locker room and head coach John Tortorella. It’ll just be tough to repeat that effort again in 2024-25. This team just needs more impact players at every position.

Calgary Flames: Maybe Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri have resurgent seasons and I wind up with egg on my face, but that seems like a very long shot. Calgary is now in the early stages of a rebuild, so there may be a couple more tough seasons on the way.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Obviously, the Blue Jackets will be dealing with tragedy all season. The focus this year will and should be on honoring the memory of Johnny Gaudreau.

San Jose Sharks: The Sharks are one of the biggest reclamation projects in the league, but landing Will Smith and Macklin Celebrinin in back-to-back drafts is a great start. The rest of the roster is relatively barren (all due respect to Tyler Toffoli and Logan Couture), so the Sharks will need to keep adding to their rapidly deepening prospect pool.