Texas vs. Florida prediction, pick, spread, football game odds, where to watch, TV channel, live stream

No. 5 Texas will host Florida in a marquee showdown between two of college football’s most recognizable brands. This weekend will mark the fourth-ever meeting, the first since 1940 and the first SEC conference game between the two programs. The Longhorns lead the series 2-0-1. 

Coming off a bye, the Longhorns are one of five SEC teams with one conference loss heading into the home stretch. At +200, they have the second-best betting odds to win the conference, according to Fanatics sportsbook. Texas held off Vanderbilt 27-24 on Oct. 26. The Commodores jumped out to a 7-0 advantage before Texas scored 21 unanswered points to take the lead back for good.

Florida is coming off a 34-20 loss to Georgia in Jacksonville. The Gators led 13-6 at halftime before Georgia scored 28 points in the second half to pull away. Florida quarterback DJ Lagway exited the game with an injury, which forced Billy Napier to turn third-string quarterback Aidan Warner the remainder of the game. If Lagway is out, Warner would be in line to make his first career start against the Longhorns.

Here is everything you need to know ahead of Florida’s matchup with Texas this weekend.

Texas vs. Florida: Need to know

Texas’ defense is on a historic pace: Texas’ defense has allowed just 11.5 points per game through the first eight games of the season — the program’s best mark since 1983. Texas also ranks No. 1 in the FBS in yards per play allowed (3.8), total yards allowed per game (241.3), passing yards allowed per game (135.8) and passing touchdowns allowed (three). 

Lagway’s status is TBD: Lagway’s status for this weekend remains up in the air. At his weekly press conference, Napier said the prognosis of his non-contact injury was better than expected. If Lagway can’t go, Warner will be in line to make his first career start. Graham Mertz, Florida’s Week 1 starter, is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL against Tennessee last month. Warner finished 7 of 22 for 66 yards and an interception in the loss to Georgia.

Both teams need this game for different reasons: Florida has lost its last seven games against ranked opponents, with the last win coming against Tennessee last season. The Gators are 0-3 against ranked opponents this season and could face two more (LSU and Ole Miss) to conclude conference play. It’s no secret that Napier is under a microscope due to his 15-18 career record with Florida, so a win over a top-five opponent could do wonders for his job security. On the other side, the Longhorns will have to run the table to guarantee a spot in the SEC title game.

How to watch Texas vs. Florida live

Date: Saturday, Nov. 5 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium — Austin, Texas
TV: ABC | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)

Texas vs. Florida prediction, picks

Florida a 20-plus point betting underdog for only the fourth time in the last 30 years. If Warner gets the nod at quarterback, he will face a relentless defense that ranks near the top in most statistical categories. Texas has won 17 consecutive games against unranked teams, and eight have come by at least 20 points. This has all the makings for a blowout win for the home team. Pick: Texas -21.5

Sports betting odds via Fanatics. Check out Fanatics sportsbook for all the Week 11 action and use Fanatics promo to get in the game. 

SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for five outright upsets in Week 11 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.