The Conversation: Are the Timberwolves about to take a step back even as Anthony Edwards enters his prime?

The Minnesota Timberwolves have made the conference finals in consecutive seasons and their best player, Anthony Edwards, isn’t even in his prime yet. They improved as the 2024-25 season went on, overcoming a rough start with their new personnel. Julius Randle’s playoff performance was encouraging, and he’ll be back on a contract that doesn’t break the bank. Why, then, isn’t there more excitement about this team?

The answer isn’t complicated: The Wolves haven’t added anybody. In fact, while teams like the Rockets and Nuggets loaded up in an effort to challenge the Thunder, the biggest difference between the Minnesota roster that lost in five games against OKC and the one it’s bringing into 2025-26 is that the latter doesn’t have Nickeil Alexander-Walker on it. There could still be paths for the Wolves to get back to where they were, but most of them involve Rob Dillingham and either Terrence Shannon Jr. or Jaylen Clark becoming reliable rotation players. And based on that last series, they’re going to need more firepower the next time they see the Thunder, even if all the second-year guys pop. 

The State of Play

Last year: The Wolves were .500 through 34 games and 32-29 at the end of February. For much of the season, they made headlines only when Edwards got fined or complained about their issues on offense. Then they won 17 of their final 21 games, with the league’s second-best offense and fourth-best net rating in that span. In the crowded West, their 49-33 record was just barely good enough to avoid the play-in and just one game worse than the third-place Lakers, whom they eliminated in five games in the first round. They did the same thing to the Warriors (who were without Stephen Curry for all but 13 minutes), then lost in five games themselves to the eventual-champion Thunder in the conference finals.

The offseason: Randle re-signed on a three-year, $100 million contract; Reid re-signed on a five-year, $125 million contract and both of them got player options. Alexander-Walker left for the Hawks on a four-year, $60.6 million sign-and-trade arrangement that returned a 2027 Cleveland second-round pick and a trade exception that Minnesota may or may not use. Josh Minott and Luka Garza left, too, signing minimum contracts in Boston, but Joe Ingles returned on a minimum contract and rookie Joan Beringer, an 18-year-old French center drafted No. 17 overall, joined the development program. 

Las Vegas over/under: 50.5, per BetMGM

The Conversation

Timberwolves believer: Michael Jordan won his first MVP award in his age-24 season. Same with LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo. And it just so happens that the Minnesota Timberwolves’ franchise player, a shooting guard who is on a Hall of Fame trajectory, turned 24 in August. Anthony Edwards has already made All-NBA twice. About halfway through last season, he became the Wolves’ all-time leader in 3s made. The next step is the top of the damn mountain. 

Timberwolves skeptic: Are you saying that Edwards will reach the top of the mountain this season or that the Wolves will? Either way, I disagree. Talented as he may be, he is still rounding out his game. It seemed pretty cool that he increased his 3-point volume last season, but in the playoffs he shot 6.3 pull-up 3s a game and made just 28.7% of them. His midrange shot isn’t there yet, his rim frequency decreases every year and he gets frustrated when opposing teams blitz him. I still don’t totally trust his decision-making or his off-ball defense, and it’s hard for me to imagine him winning MVP over guys like SGA and Nikola Jokic, especially because I don’t see the Wolves being on the same level as OKC and Denver. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a big loss!

Timberwolves believer: I’m saying it’s time for Edwards to at least be in the mix for MVP, and if he gets there then Minnesota will at least be a top-tier contender. By the way, you and all the other people who are writing off the Wolves because they lost their eighth man have only reaffirmed my belief that Ant has a real shot at it. Because of you, it’ll be treated like some kind of miracle when he and the team come back stronger, a narrative that will strengthen his MVP case. Really, though, everybody should expect Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels and Donte DiVincenzo to start the season better than they did last time and Ant to be sharper than ever. If you’re already an elite player and you need to figure out what parts of your game need fine-tuning, there’s nothing better than battling one of the best defenses of all-time with a spot in the Finals on the line.

Timberwolves skeptic: The Wolves better hope that all of those guys have better seasons this year because they need to make up for NAW’s absence somehow. And aren’t you worried about Mike Conley? He’s turning 38 before the season starts, and 2024-25 was a weird one. He lost his starting spot for a bit, had a career-low usage rate (14.1%) and went scoreless once in each of Minnesota’s playoff series. I’ve been a big Conley fan forever and would love to see him win a title before he retires, so I hate that the front office has not put him in a position to do so. In terms of minutes and usage, Conley has already transitioned to a supporting role, but if he’s the point guard equivalent of Brook Lopez on the Clippers, there is no Ivica Zubac here. Overpaying Naz Reid instead of re-signing NAW is a total disaster — you saw Reid in the Thunder series, right? — and I can’t believe a supposedly serious, win-now team is betting on Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark, who are all totally unproven.

Timberwolves believer: The Wolves drafted Dillingham because they knew Conley couldn’t play heavy minutes forever. They chose Reid over NAW because they knew they had Shannon and Clark waiting in the wings. I think Tim Connelly will be vindicated for all of this, just like he’s been vindicated for trading Karl-Anthony Towns. You surely scorched the whole organization for making such a move right after making the conference finals, but it looks pretty good now that Minnesota has made another conference finals and re-signed Julius Randle to a contract that will pay him $22.3 million less than Towns this season, doesn’t it?

Timberwolves skeptic: Sure, the Randle contract seems fine. But why pay Reid all that money to do the same stuff? This is a massive misallocation of resources, and it’s particularly disappointing because I thought Minnesota might use the offseason to make the roster more balanced. I want to see McDaniels play the 4 more often, and I really want to see Edwards in a healthier offensive environment, with better spacing and someone other than Randle to share the playmaking burden. Unless Connelly has another just-before-training-camp trade coming, I guess I’ll have to wait.