The conversation: Can Luka Doncic’s Mavericks get through the wild West again?

The Dallas Mavericks shot 30.4% from 3-point range in the NBA Finals. In the losses, they only attempted 31.2 3s per 100 possessions, eight fewer than they averaged in the regular season. (Only the Los Angeles Lakers attempted 3s less frequently than this.) There are numerous reasons that the Mavericks lost to the Boston Celtics in five games, but, as coach Jason Kidd told reporters on media day, better shooting would have helped.

Enter Klay Thompson. At 34 years old, Thompson left the Golden State Warriors, the franchise that drafted him 13 years ago, for a fresh start in Dallas. The four-time champ and five-time All-Star has a stronger gravitational pull than any of the Mavericks’ incumbent role players. His presence on the perimeter will make it even more difficult for opponents to defend Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

The appeal of Thompson is simple, as is the appeal of 3-and-D wing Quentin Grimes, acquired from the Detroit Pistons in exchange for Tim Hardaway Jr. and three second-round picks. Defense-first wing Naji Marshall will effectively replace Derrick Jones Jr., and guard Spencer Dinwiddie is back to reprise his supporting role. Questions linger, however. If Thompson is starting, will the defense take a hit? Can Grimes get back on the trajectory he was on before things went south in New York? What happens when teams roam off of Marshall? Dallas made it through the gauntlet last season, but the West is going to be even tougher this time.

The state of play

Last year: The Mavs were 26-23 with a negative point differential in early February, but deadline-day deals for P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford breathed new life into the team. Doncic made a strong MVP push, Dante Exum authored a fun comeback story, Dereck Lively II was way more ready than anyone anticipated and, thanks to a 16-2 stretch beginning in March, they finished 50-32 (No. 6 on offense, No. 18 on defense). Their team defense in the playoffs was eye-opening, particularly against the No. 1-seeded Thunder in the second round, but their Finals opponent was better on both ends.

The offseason: Nico Harrison’s front office continued tweaking the supporting cast: Jones, Josh Green and Hardaway are out; Thompson, Marshall, Grimes and Dinwiddie are in. Dallas has improved its depth to the point that it’s difficult to project its rotation.

Best case for 2024-25: Doncic finally wins MVP, Thompson is rejuvenated, Washington shoots around 40% from deep, advanced stats suggest that Lively should be an All-Star and the second unit — featuring Grimes and Marshall, whose perimeter defense sparks a thousand fast breaks — outperforms the starters’ point differential and the Mavericks sweep Thompson’s old buddies in the Bay Area on their way back to the Finals.

Worst case 2024-25: In an effort to fix their dismal defense, Kidd reconfigures the rotation several times in the season’s first 30 games, eventually calling on Jason Terry to chat with Thompson about how to approach the sixth-man role; Harrison moves both of their tradeable first-round picks in a popular, win-now move at the deadline, but, when the Mavs fall in the first round, analysts regret giving the trade the benefit of the doubt, talking heads call their Finals appearance fluky and reports indicate that Thompson has second-guessed his decision to leave Golden State.

The conversation

Mavericks believer: I can’t remember the last time I felt this good about the Mavericks at this time of year. It’s so nice to just know that their formula works, you know? Luka has the co-star he always wanted, the lob threats he always wanted and a sort of staggering amount of solid role players to fill in the gaps. Klay is the commander of this small army of wings, obviously, but I’m almost as excited about Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall. I don’t get why Spencer Dinwiddie keeps winding up in weird situations on other teams, but bringing him back on a minimum is a massive steal. I don’t know if they’ll avenge the Finals loss — everybody who wins a title acknowledges that it requires a fair bit of luck — but I can confidently say that this iteration is better. It sort of bugs me that everybody’s already anointing OKC as the best in the West.

Mavericks skeptic: This iteration might be better, but are you really that confident? If the Mavericks had signed Prime Klay, I’d pick them to come out of the West, but this is not Prime Klay. This is not even 2022 Finals Klay — remember how good he was defensively in that series? Time makes defensive liabilities of us all, unfortunately, and at this point his best attribute is his strength, so he’s best hidden on 4s. The Mavs often hide Luka on 4s, though, and if Klay is in the starting lineup — instead of, say, Grimes or Marshall — they’re probably going to have to ask Washington to defend star wings. If the goal this summer was to add shooting and depth, then the front office was successful, but I worry that the team has basically just sacrificed defense for offense when what it really needed was more two-way players.

Mavericks believer: The Mavs did sacrifice defense for offense. As they should have! This is the new NBA; there’s a reason teams aren’t modeling themselves after the 2004 Pistons. And you saw how the season ended, right? Dallas scored 106.7 points per 100 possessions in the Finals, which is a tenth of a point worse than the Grizzlies‘ league-worst regular-season offense. Think about trying to guard a Luka-Lively pick-and-roll with Kyrie one pass away and Klay on the opposite side. Think about how much more effective the Spain pick-and-roll will be when it’s Klay instead of DJJ setting the second screen. Think about how much more diverse the offense can be with Klay in constant motion, Marshall pushing the ball off misses and Dinwiddie and Grimes driving closeouts. I don’t think there’s any less defensive talent here. Marshall and Grimes vs. DJJ and Green is a wash, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper might break into the rotation. But the lineups should tilt more toward offense, which is perfectly fine with me. Kyrie and Luka have both shown they can hang on that end, Klay’s still switchable enough and everybody knows that either Lively or Gafford will be around the rim, ready to clean up mistakes.

Mavericks skeptic: No one wants to be the 2004 Pistons, but if you have championship aspirations, you don’t want to be the 2024 Pacers, either. Yes, the Mavs’ offense was rough in the Finals, but the Celtics broke their defense, too! Unlike Boston, Dallas had one or two weak links on the court at all times. Since the Mavs couldn’t hold up one-on-one, they were constantly in rotation, and, since they didn’t want to surrender layups, they surrendered tons of open 3s. As long as Kyrie is Luka’s running mate, they’re not going to be as balanced as the Celtics, but they should at least be trying to mask that problem. Instead, they’ve actively exacerbated it, committing $50 million over three years to a sharpshooter who can’t stay in front of anybody anymore. The reason everyone’s anointing the Thunder already is that they just signed one of the league’s best defensive centers and swapped their worst perimeter defender for a First Team All-Defense guy.

Mavericks believer: Do you really think Luka and Kyrie are concerned about that? The Mavs showed the whole league the formula to beat the Thunder: pack the paint, don’t give SGA anything easy and don’t overreact if they make a few 3s. I know every smartypants analyst is obsessed with Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso, but neither of them is going to fix OKC’s shooting issue. Sam Presti should have gone after someone like Klay! Speaking of Klay, maybe you can help me out with something. I keep going back and forth about what will have a bigger positive effect on the Mavs’ offense this season: Klay getting two on the ball or Lively expanding his game. Thoughts?

Mavericks skeptic: I guess my answer is Klay getting two on the ball, but it’s kind of by default. You don’t think Lively’s going to start shooting a ton of 3s, do you? If you’re expecting Lively is going to be anything other than a low-usage, lob-catching 5 who makes some nice reads in the short roll, you’re setting yourself up to be disappointed, which is a shame because I’ve just described an extremely useful player tailor-made for this specific team. I fear, too, that you’re setting yourself up for disappointment with Klay. He got two on the ball with the Warriors because they ran him off screens constantly and forced defenses to make difficult decisions. In that system, he was an incredible offensive weapon for years and years, and an underrated one even as his ability to create separation diminished. Playing with Luka, however, is completely different than playing with Steph. I hope the Mavs run some stuff for Klay, but I can’t imagine they’re about to reorient their whole offense. If Klay can adjust to standing around and watching Luka hunt mismatches, this doesn’t have to be a bad thing. He’ll get more open catch-and-shoot opportunities, and I won’t be surprised if he shoots his best percentage in years. But I don’t necessarily see him getting two on the ball all that often, either.

Mavericks believer: Do you enjoy being a killjoy? Sheesh. In an average Mavericks game last year, there were 100.6 possessions. Who says that all of them have to look the same? Luka is one of the best on-ball playmakers in the history of the sport, so, yes, he’s going to have plenty of opportunities to pick on weak defenders and attack one-on-one. I’ve been impressed, though, with how he’s made room for Kyrie to be himself in Dallas, and I imagine that Luka and Kidd are both smart enough to know you don’t sign Klay to be exclusively a standstill shooter. They’re also smart enough to see the potential in Lively. Based on the preseason, the Mavericks are going to give him the freedom to push the ball in transition rather than throwing an outlet pass every time, and he’s going to be more aggressive in the post against switches. I’d love to see him empowered even more as a handoff hub/high-post passer, and I truly don’t care if he attempts a single 3-pointer. (I mean, Lively making 3s would be cool, but it’d be a bonus.)

Mavericks skeptic: To be clear, I was not implying that the Mavs would run zero pindowns for Thompson all season. I’m just hesitant to believe that the offense is going to be, as you put it earlier, much more diverse. Sure, Luka has been happy to let Kyrie cook at certain times, and sure, the offense went from the league’s worst transition team to a decent one last season. But this is still fundamentally The Luka Show. They’re not about to lead the league in passes or pace or pretty set plays. It’s a plus, in theory, to have other sources of offense, but I feel the same way about Klay’s off-ball movement as I do about Spencer Dinwiddie’s pick-and-roll game. This stuff seems most valuable to me in the non-Luka minutes, and even then it’ll mostly be The Kyrie Show.

Mavericks believer: Strong disagree! Even if Luka leads the league in usage again, I’m positive the Mavs will evolve offensively. As you mentioned, their increased pace last season demonstrated that they have the capacity to do this. They simply have more weapons now — I expect a Jaden Hardy breakout, by the way — and, after their experience against the Celtics, they know that they need to make the most of them. Maybe the difference won’t be as stark as I’m anticipating in the regular season, but I assure you that you’ll see it in the playoffs. When they face an elite defensive team, they’re going to need to use every tool in the toolbox.

Mavericks skeptic: Weapons? Tools? Please stop describing players as inanimate objects, it’s dehumanizing. Other than that, though, I don’t have it in me to push back that hard on what you said. It’s sort of sweet that you think the Mavs are going to blend Lukaball with a more varied attack. It’s kind of heartening that you’re willing to overlook their defensive deficiencies. I just can’t get there.