The Dodgers have become World Series underdogs, but they still have one big advantage vs. Blue Jays

The Los Angeles Dodgers lost to the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday in Game 5 of the World Series. The Dodgers, who are hoping to become MLB’s first repeat champion since the New York Yankees won the 1998-2000 Fall Classics, are now down 3-2 in the best-of-seven series and without any margin for error. The Blue Jays, conversely, are another victory from claiming their first championship since 1993.

The odds are not in the Dodgers’ favor, empirically or theoretically. Roughly 70% of MLB teams to trail a best-of-seven set by a 3-2 margin have then lost the series. That only makes sense when you do the math yourself. Affording the Dodgers a 55% chance to win each game — and that’s generous — would give them a 30% chance at winning both. Drop those odds to a coin flip, and they’re looking at a 25% probability of running the table and repeating. It’s not a great situation to be in either way.

If there is a silver lining for the Dodgers, it’s this: the remaining structure of the World Series should empower them to eliminate their biggest weakness: a leaky bullpen that tied for the second-most meltdowns during the regular season. The playoffs haven’t been much better:

Manager Dave Roberts has had to navigate a quagmire throughout October. The disparity between the quality of his rotation and bullpen is such that he’s made the logical call to lean on the former — even as those pitchers have risked overexposure from working three-plus times through the opposing lineup. That’s left him in an uncomfortable spot. If Roberts keeps a starter in too long, he’ll be second-guessed, but if he removes a starter too early, he’ll be second-guessed. Ain’t managing fun?

Roberts will still face that consideration in Game 6, and a potential Game 7, but the circumstances are different. Now, instead of picking between middle-relief options if a move is required in the fifth or sixth inning, Roberts can prioritize getting as many frames as possible from his four starting pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, and Blake Snell.

Yamamoto and Glasnow, the projected starters, can work in bulk. Yamamoto has already thrown two complete games this postseason, including one in World Series Game 2 in Toronto. Roberts can then sub in Ohtani and/or Snell in accordance with their throw days (usually two days after a pitcher’s start). There is no tomorrow if the Dodgers lose Game 6, and there is no tomorrow period in the event of a Game 7. That allows Roberts to push those starters a little further in relief than he might if this were the LCS round.

Combined with Roberts’ willingness to let his starters work deep — every starter except Glasnow has averaged more than six innings per pop in the playoffs, and Yamamoto has cleared seven — that could present scenarios where the Dodgers are only calling upon one traditional reliever, if any. Obviously that doesn’t guarantee anything — a starter in either role could have a bad night, or the offense could continue to no-show — but it does put the Dodgers in a better situation than if they were trying to piece together four or five innings from a relief unit that hasn’t gotten the job done on a steady basis. In fact, the Dodgers might be wise to limit their bullpen exposure so that only right-hander Roki Sasaki, L.A.’s postseason closer, is in Roberts’ circle of trust.

The one consideration the Dodgers ought to think about is how to best deploy Ohtani — as in, would it make more sense to have him start any game they intend to deploy him within, that way he doesn’t have to bother attempting to warm up while still being part of the lineup. 

Whatever the case, the Dodgers can take solace in this much: if they lose this series, it may not be because of their middle relievers falling apart.