The Six Pack: Picks for Alabama vs. Missouri, Oregon vs. Indiana and Tom Fornelli’s lock for Week 7

The mediocrity continues here in The Six Pack. We put another 3-3 week under our belts last week and are now 19-17 on the season. The Lock of the Week has dropped to 1-5, which I don’t think I could do if I tried. I know this because, well, my Lock of the Week is 1-5.

The craziest part of it all to me is that there are four games guaranteed to be picked in this column every week. There are the two Games of the Week, the Lock of the Week and the Upset of the Week. Those four games have gone a combined 8-16 on the season.

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That means I’ve gone 11-1 in the 12 “free” games. Maybe I should ditch the weekly staples? Or maybe I should just keep doing what I’ve been doing and stick to my long-held mantra, one that’s working so very well for North Carolina general manager Mike Lombardi these days.

That’s right. We’ll continue to #TrustTheProcess and wait for this thing to figure itself out.

Games of the Week

No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon: This should be an absolute banger of a game, and I fear my pick won’t accurately reflect how I feel about the situation. I’ve already written this year about my feelings for Indiana. In my eyes, it’s a legitimate playoff team, and it’s a better team than the Indiana we saw last year. The squad has upgraded its offensive line, and Fernando Mendoza has been an upgrade on Kurtis Rourke. Keep in mind, I say that as a man who has been riding with Rourke since he was slinging it with the Ohio Bobcats. We covered a lot of spread together, Kurtis and I!

Anyway, while Indiana has upgraded its overall talent level, I don’t love this matchup for the Hoosiers. I wrote last week about the problems teams see when crossing the Rocky Mountains for road trips, and you saw what happened to Penn State. You also saw Washington fall behind 20-0 against Maryland before storming back. That travel will impact Indiana here, too.

But that’s only part of the equation. My bigger concern is Indiana’s ability to cover Oregon’s receivers. Indiana’s secondary has been excellent this year, but D’Angelo Ponds missed last week’s game against Iowa. All signs point to his return this week, but even if he’s at 100%, Dakorien Moore is a better receiver than he or the Hoosiers have seen this year. And he’s just one of Oregon’s options. Malik Benson and Gary Bryant round out the receiver corps, and then there’s tight end Kenyon Sadiq. The Ducks roll deep, and unless Indiana gets a tremendous amount of pressure on Dante Moore, I don’t know that it can cover all of them.

I do believe the Hoosiers’ offensive line can slow down Oregon’s pass rush a bit and that the Hoosiers will be able to find success of their own on offense. I just don’t know that they’ll find enough to stay within this number. I think Indiana is very good. I just think Oregon’s that much better. The Pick: Oregon -7.5 (-105) at FanDuel

No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri: You were probably a little surprised to see the spread in this game was only 3.5 points, but that’s how good Missouri has been this year. I’m telling you right now, if the Tigers win this game, I will not be all that surprised by it. That said, I’m staying away from the spread because I believe there’s a much better play available.

Alabama held Vanderbilt to 14 points last week, but Vanderbilt was a big reason why. The Commodores turned the ball over twice in the red zone. They still averaged 7.1 yards per carry on the ground, and Alabama’s defense remains 63rd nationally in success rate against the run and 80th in EPA per rush. Enter Missouri, which is fourth nationally in rushing success rate on offense, third in EPA per rush and sixth in rushing explosive rate. The Tigers run the ball quite well! Ahmad Hardy has rushed for at least 100 yards in every game they’ve played, and there’s depth behind him in Jamal Roberts and Marquise Davis. QB Beau Pribula will contribute a bit with his legs, too. So I expect Mizzou will move the ball and score points.

Alabama will, too. Missouri’s overall defensive numbers are solid, but the Tigers allowed 31 points to Kansas and 29 to South Carolina. Both of those teams moved the ball very effectively through the air despite not having what anybody would consider a great passing offense (though South Carolina’s has improved as the season has progressed). Missouri has a solid front seven, but if they can’t get home and put Simpson on his backside, I don’t think the Mizzou secondary will hold up. The Pick: Over 51.5 (-110) at Draftkings

Lock of the Week

UCLA at Michigan State: Timing is everything. Last week, UCLA hosted a Penn State team still licking its wounds after a double-overtime loss to Oregon that seemed to suck the life out of that locker room. UCLA was also in the process of installing a new offense under a new offensive coordinator. While Penn State was feeling sorry for itself, it also had no idea what to expect from the UCLA offense. Next thing it knew, the Bruins put up 27 points on it before halftime. Penn State’s defense adjusted at halftime and held the Bruins to 15 in the second half.

Well, Michigan State knows what UCLA’s offense looks like because they have an entire game’s worth of tape. Now, UCLA has to travel across the country to play three time zones over against a rested team that’s not in a great mood after losing its first two Big Ten games. Sparty played both USC and Nebraska on the road, but while it lost both games, it scored 58 points. Now it’s at home facing a UCLA defense that still ranks near or at the bottom of far too many defensive statistics I care about. I don’t expect UCLA to look nearly as good as it did last week, and this line should be double digits. The Pick: Michigan State -7.5 (-112) at Draftkings

Team Total of the Week

Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee: If you prefer taking the full game over here, I won’t try to stop you. The average Tennessee game has seen 80 points scored. I prefer sticking to Tennessee’s side of the equation since this will be Arkansas’ first game under interim (I think?) coach Bobby Petrino, and I don’t know exactly what they’ll look like. Given Petrino’s background, I’d expect they’ll try to score plenty of points, though.

But unless Petrino overhauled his defensive depth chart and filled it with new players, I know the Hogs will give up points. In three games against quality competition, Arkansas has allowed 129 points (43 per game). Tennessee is scoring 51 points per game and hasn’t scored fewer than 41 in any of them. If the Vols can put up 41 on freaking Georgia in Knoxville, I’m confident they can put up 41 on Arkansas, too. The Pick: Tennessee Over 40.5 (-120) at Draftkings

Technical School Game of the Week

Virginia Tech at No. 13 Georgia Tech: I can try to tell you about how much better Virginia Tech has looked since the coaching change, and it wouldn’t be a lie. It was 0-3 when it fired Brent Pry, and it’s 2-1 since. That includes a road win over NC State and a seven-point loss at home last week to Wake Forest. Georgia Tech is better than both of those teams, but I don’t know if it’s 14.5 points better than Virginia Tech.

And, even if it is, it might not matter. Georgia Tech has certain tendencies. The Bees typically play to their opponent. If you’re ranked, Georgia Tech’s a juggernaut. If you’re not, the Jackets aren’t. Seriously, since last season, Georgia Tech is 1-4-1 ATS when playing an unranked ACC opponent. If you expand that to unranked teams from a Power Four conference, they’re 2-5-1 ATS. That includes a mark of 0-2-1 when favored by more than 5 points in those games. The Bees aren’t a team I trust as a two-touchdown favorite in these spots. The Pick: Virginia Tech +14.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Upset of the Week

No. 15 Michigan at USC: The last we saw USC it was losing on the road at Illinois in a close game, but it suffered some injuries while in Champaign. The Trojans were already without starting left tackle Elijah Paige, and starting center Kilian O’Connor went down during the game. While Paige might return for this one, O’Connor is out, which is a blow to a unit that hadn’t been performing all that spectacularly to begin with.

The truth is, even at full strength, I like Michigan along the lines of scrimmage more than I like USC, so if the Trojans are banged up, that tilts the scales even further into Michigan’s direction.

None of which is to say I think Michigan dominates the game. USC’s offense remains lethal and is easily the best offense the Wolverines defense has seen this year. But if that line can’t protect Maiava, he’s prone to make bad decisions when pressured. I also don’t know that USC’s defense will be able to slow the Michigan run game, and Michigan QB Bryce Underwood looks like he’s getting better and more comfortable in the offense every week. I’m not convinced the right team is favored here, and there’s a strong chance Michigan goes into the Coliseum and gets a huge win in the Big Ten race. The Pick: Michigan (+114) at FanDuel

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