Today’s top games to watch, best bets, odds: Chiefs at Jaguars, MLB playoffs and more

The reigning AFC champions Kansas City Chiefs will look to win their third straight game when they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Monday Night Football game at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. After losing their first two games of the season to the Chargers and Eagles, the Chiefs (2-2) have won consecutive games against the Giants and Ravens. With a win on Monday, Kansas City would create a three-way tie for first place in the AFC West with the Chargers and Broncos (both 3-2).

Like the Chiefs, the Jaguars also are on a two-game winning streak and also can move into a tie atop their division. After starting the season 1-1, Jacksonville has knocked off the Texans and 49ers in back-to-back weeks. If the Jaguars beat Kansas City on Monday, they would join the Colts and Bills (both 4-1) as the teams with the best record in the AFC.

The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over Jacksonville. 

Last week, for the first time this season, Kansas City looked like Kansas City of old. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns in a 37-20 victory over Baltimore. Speedy wideout Xavier Worthy, who suffered a shoulder injury on the first drive of the first game of the season, saw his first significant action of the year, catching five passes for 83 yards and helping spark an offense that had averaged just 20.0 points a game over the first three weeks. Kansas City set season highs in points, total yards (382) and first downs (24).

However, Worthy is dealing with an ankle injury to go with his shoulder ailment. While he was downgraded to questionable for Monday’s game, he is still expected to play. 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been one of the biggest surprises in the league through four weeks. Jacksonville has been led this season by its playmaking defense. The Jaguars have forced 13 turnovers this season, which is the most in the NFL through four weeks since the 2018 Browns. Jacksonville has at least three takeaways in each of its four games this season. On Monday, the Jaguars will face a Chiefs offense that has committed only one turnover, which is tied for the fewest in the league. 

The Jacksonville offense features one of the best running attacks in the NFL. The Jaguars average 144.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth in the league.

While the Chiefs-Jaguars Monday Night Football game is the marquee attraction on the sporting landscape on the day, there are other options on a sporting landscape that also includes the MLB playoffs.

Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet for Monday, Oct. 6. All times Eastern.

NFL best bets, where to watch

Chiefs at Jaguars

Time: 8:15 p.m. | Location: Jacksonville, Fla. | TV: ABC | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)

SportsLine picks — Model: Jaguars +165 | Expert: Jaguars +3.5 -112 (R.J. White)

Kansas City has dominated the recent head-to-head series against Jacksonville. The Chiefs have won eight consecutive matchups against the Jaguars including the playoffs, and haven’t lost to Jacksonville since 2009. Mahomes is 5-0 against the Jaguars, which is tied for his best record against any team, while completing 70.1% of his passes for 304.4 yards a game. He is the only quarterback in NFL history since 1950 to be 5-0 or better with a 70.0-plus completion rate and 300.0 passing yards per game against one team. But while Mahomes seemed to get back on track last week against the Ravens, White notes Baltimore was missing seven defensive starters by the end of the game. “The Jags may be without Travon Walker but are much healthier [than the Ravens] overall on defense, and the unit has played particularly well at home while ranking second overall in EPA per play on the year,” White says. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, also likes Jacksonville, giving a “B” grade to Jaguars money line (+165).

More NFL best bets

• Best sportsbook promos for Chiefs-Jaguars
• Model’s top player props for Monday night
• Model’s anytime touchdown scorer props for Monday night
• Model’s longshot props for Monday night
• Will Brinson’s top Monday Night Football plays
• Jimmie Kaylor’s top DFS picks for Chiefs-Jaguars ($)

MLB best bets, where to watch

NLDS Game 2: Dodgers at Phillies

Time: 6:08 p.m. | Location: Philadelphia | TV: TBS/HBO Max | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)

SportsLine picks — Model: Phillies +110 | Expert: Phillies +1.5 -152 (Matt Severance)

The Los Angeles Dodgers can take a commanding 2-0 lead in their best-of-5 National League Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies when the teams meet in Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. In Game 1 on Saturday, the Dodgers got a go-ahead three-run home run from Teoscar Hernandez in the seventh inning en route to a 5-3 victory. Monday’s pitching matchup features two lefties: Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA) for Los Angeles against Jesús Luzardo (15-7, 3.92) for Philadelphia. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Phillies a 55% chance to win and gives an “A” grade to Philadelphia money line (+110). Meanwhile, Severance notes Snell was 0-3 with a 4.30 ERA over his last seven regular season road starts and that the Phillies had the best home record in the majors this season.

NLDS Game 2: Cubs at Brewers

Time: 9:08 p.m. | Location: Milwaukee | TV: TBS/HBO Max | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)

SportsLine picks — Model: Brewers -133 | Expert: Aaron Ashby Under 1.5 total hits allowed -108 (Jake Fetner)

The Chicago Cubs will try to level their NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers at 1-1 when the two rivals collide in Game 2 at American Family Field. In Game 1 on Saturday, the Brewers jumped on the Cubs with six runs in the first inning and cruised to a 9-3 victory. On Monday, lefty Aaron Ashby (5-2, 2.16) will serve as an opener for Milwaukee; lefty Shota Imanaga (9-8, 3.73) will take the ball for Chicago. The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Brewers a 54% chance to win and assigns a “C” grade to Milwaukee money line (-133). Meanwhile, Fetner notes Ashby has allowed one or fewer hits in 30 of his 44 appearances this season. “The top of the Cubs’ lineup is loaded with left-handed bats (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch and Kyle Tucker), so going with a LHP opener makes a ton of sense here,” he says.

Looking ahead

ALDS Game 3: Mariners at Tigers

Time: Tuesday, 4:08 p.m. | Location: Detroit | TV: FS1 | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)

SportsLine picks — Model: Mariners -131

A 2-1 lead in the ALDS will be on the line when the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers meet in a key Game 3 on Tuesday at Comerica Park. In Game 1 on Saturday, the Tigers’ Zach McKinstry drove home the go-ahead run with two outs in the 11th inning as Detroit prevailed in extra innings, 3-2. On Sunday, the Mariners got back-to-back doubles from Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez in the eighth inning en route to a 3-2 victory of their own. On Tuesday, Logan Gilbert (6-6, 3.44) takes the ball for Seattle while Jack Flaherty (8-15, 4.64) gets the call for the Tigers. The SportsLine Projection Model says the Mariners have a 56% chance to win and gives a “C” grade to Seattle money line (-131).

ALDS Game 3: Blue Jays at Yankees

Time: Tuesday, 8:08 p.m. | Location: New York | TV: FS1 | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)

SportsLine picks — Model: Over 7.5 runs

The Toronto Blue Jays can complete a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees and advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2016 when the teams collide on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. The Blue Jays have dominated the Yankees so far in the series, winning 10-1 in Game 1 and 13-7 in Game 2. Toronto is hitting .392 with a 1.217 OPS and eight home runs in the postseason. The Blue Jays are 10-6 against New York this season, including the playoffs. Tuesday’s Game 3 will pit Toronto righty Shane Bieber (4-2, 3.57) against Yankees lefty Carlos Rodón (18-9, 3.09). The SportsLine Projection Model says there’s a 67.4% chance the teams combine for eight runs or more and assigns a “B” grade to Over 7.5 runs.