Toledo vs. Northern Illinois prediction, odds, MACtion picks: 2025 college football Week 11 best bets by model

MACtion takes center stage with a pair of Wednesday matchups, including the Toledo Rockets hosting the Northern Illinois Huskies. Toledo (4-4, 2-2 MAC) has alternated wins and losses over its last six games, with its most recent outing being a 28-7 road defeat to Washington State on Oct. 25. On that same day, NIU (2-6, 1-3 MAC) defeated Ball State, 21-7, which ended a six-game losing streak for the Huskies. Toledo defeated NIU last season, 13-6, on the road.

Kickoff is at 7 p.m. ET from the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. The Rockets are 14.5-point favorites in the latest Toledo vs. Northern Illinois odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 42.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Northern Illinois vs. Toledo picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and it enters Week 11 on a profitable 47-33 combined run on money-line and over/under college football picks since the beginning of 2024. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Northern Illinois vs. Toledo. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Toledo vs. Northern Illinois:

Why Northern Illinois can cover

NIU is coming off its best game of the year, matching a season-high with 21 points, while the seven points it allowed was one off matching its fewest given up all year. The defense is the strength of Northern Illinois, especially versus the air game. The Huskies rank 15th in the nation in both passing yards allowed per game and passing touchdowns given up. Additionally, Northern Illinois is a disciplined crew as they commit the 16th fewest penalties per game.

Discipline happens to be something that Toledo is lacking as just seven teams in FBS commit more penalties per game. The Rockets also struggle where it matters the most, and that’s in the redzone. Toledo ranks 117th (out of 136 FBS teams) in redzone scoring as the team registered just one touchdown over its 11 possessions in its defeat to Washington State. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why Toledo can cover

The Rockets have dominated both the all-time and the recent series between these programs. Toledo owns a 35-17 record versus Northern Illinois, including three straight victories. Toledo has also been the far better team this season, especially on its home field. The Rockets are unstoppable on offense at the Glass Bowl, having scored at least 45 points in all four home contests in 2025.

Toledo has an astounding 24 offensive touchdowns compared to just two giveaways in home games. The defense also plays its best in Toledo as the Rockets have given up a lone touchdown, total, over their last three at home. Meanwhile, NIU is 0-4 on the road this season, with an average margin of defeat of 18 points. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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SportsLine’s model has simulated Northern Illinois vs. Toledo 10,000 times and is going Over on the total, projecting 46 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Toledo vs. NIU, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the NIU vs. Toledo spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.