Tomorrow’s Top 25 Today: Oklahoma moves into top 10 in college football rankings after win over Alabama

Colossal clashes among some of the top teams in the sport promised some changes in the new college football rankings, and now AP Top 25 poll voters will have some tough decisions to make as they prepare to react to the chaotic nature of Week 12. 

Among the many complications when trying to stack teams up against each other is the conflict of head-to-head results among teams with similar resumes. Oklahoma is very clearly one of the biggest winners of the weekend after going into Tuscaloosa and beating Alabama, resulting in both teams carrying an 8-2 record into next week. But while voters can choose to slide Alabama down and move Oklahoma up, there are issues to negotiate like the value of the Crimson Tide’s win against top-five Georgia and also the Sooners’ loss to the Texas team that just lost by double digits in Athens. 

It’s worth noting that head-to-head results should not be the end-all, be-all when we have hit this point in this season, as there are enough games played to allow for context and a better picture of a team’s strengths and weaknesses. But untangling those knots is no easy task, and for our projections we think the voters will be swayed by the recency bias of Oklahoma’s impressive victory and move the Sooners up well ahead of the Longhorns to a position in the top 10 that makes them the highest-ranked two-loss team in the AP Top 25 poll. 

Another big rankings storyline of Week 12 was the upsets that weren’t — or, more specifically, the heroic comebacks by ranked teams that faced deficits in tricky spots. Texas A&M launched its biggest-ever comeback against South Carolina to preserve an unbeaten record, Georgia Tech stormed back from double-digits in the fourth quarter to beat Boston College and USC scored the final 19 points of the game to beat Iowa by five. Any of those results flipping the other way could have had dramatic impacts on the rankings, but instead, those top 20 teams will remain mostly close to their previous position despite the upset scare. 

Another tough decision for the AP voters will be filling out the spots in the 20s on their ballots, as once again many of the teams that did hold those positions lost. When the No. 19, No. 22, No. 23 and No. 25 teams all take losses, it’s easy to clear them off a ballot but less simple to find the appropriate replacements. After judging last week’s balloting and the Week 12 results, we’re projecting an influx of American squads, but there are some three-loss power conference teams that could end up getting plenty of votes as they lurch back into top 25 consideration in these late stages of the season. 

Here’s how we think the AP Top 25 will look on Sunday after the Week 12 results: 

1. Ohio State (Last week —1): No major changes are expected as Ohio State handled business at home against UCLA to improve to 10-0 on the year.  

2. Indiana (2): The Hoosiers got off to a slow start, but when Fernando Mendoza and the offense got rolling, it was a hard group for Wisconsin to stop. By the end of four quarters the final score of 31-7 was more than enough to satisfy voters looking for validation on Indiana’s current ranking. 

3. Texas A&M (3): The notion that Texas A&M was more worthy of consideration for No. 1 or No. 2 was put the test with a 30-3 halftime hole at home against South Carolina. The Aggies certainly showed championship form with their resiliency and second-half comeback, but in terms of the polls, the only bonus was avoiding the penalty of a loss. 

4. Georgia (5): The Bulldogs exposed a class difference in a heavyweight battle, looking much more like a team worth considering for one of the top spots in the College Football Playoff than one who should be concerned with the at-large bubble. The Bulldogs’ early-season loss to Alabama is long in the rearview, because the group that took the field in Athens on Saturday night looks primed for a deep postseason run.  

5. Ole Miss (6): A career night from running back Kewan Lacy and a strong second half defensive performance helped the Rebels avoid disaster and finish with a 34-24 win against Florida.  

6. Oregon (7): With a little bit better health and a slightly more favorable environment then last week’s sloppy slugfest with Iowa, Oregon stretched out its offense a little bit in a 42-13 win against Minnesota. It’s a sharp performance on a quick turnaround, but whether it inspires voters to make a big move on their ballots is harder to predict. 

7. Texas Tech (8): It was a star-studded afternoon for the Red Raiders as the team offered an impressive encore to last week’s win against BYU. UCF’s offense never stood a chance against one of the best defenses in the country, and Texas Tech even had star linebacker Jacob Rodriguez running in touchdowns and striking the Heisman pose in a 48-9 win. 

8. Oklahoma (11): The title of “best two-loss team” gets a new contender with Oklahoma’s road win against Alabama. The Sooners have wins against the teams ranked No. 4, No. 18 and No. 21 in last week’s AP Top 25 poll. Ever since laying an egg offensively in the Red River Rivalry against Texas, this team is 3-1 with the only loss coming to Ole Miss.  

9. Alabama (4): Voters will have to apply some varying principles to slotting Alabama in what is sure to be a step back in the rankings. Saturday’s 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma creates a simple head-to-head edge for the Sooners, so one expected range is somewhere between Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. 

10. Notre Dame (9): The Fighting Irish jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead and never looked back in a 37-15 win at Pitt to extend their winning streak to eight games. It’s going to be hard to move too far up in the rankings without some help from other teams losing, but Notre Dame’s bona fides as a top-10 team were confirmed with the ranked win. 

11. BYU (12): The Cougars should get a boost in voting points this week after running it up on TCU in a lopsided late night win. BYU took a game that many projected would be close and outplayed the Horned Frogs to a dramatic margin. It was the perfect response after losing at Texas Tech, and now at 9-1 this BYU team is in the mix for the Big 12 title for a second straight season. 

12. Texas (10): While it’s admittedly wild to consider that a three-loss team would still be this high in the rankings in mid-November, there are two factors that really strengthen Texas’ resume when it comes to finding their spot in the new poll. First are the wins against both Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, with the Sooners’ rising stock clearly helping that analysis. Second is a limited penalty for losing at Georgia, a team that seems to be rounding into form to make a run at another national title.  

13. Vanderbilt (13): The Commodores were off in Week 12 and will be back in action next week against Kentucky. 

14. Georgia Tech (14): Voters will not be rushing to move Georgia Tech up on their ballots after the Yellow Jackets needed a double-digit fourth quarter comeback to escape Chestnut Hill with a 36-34 win against Boston College. Still, voters had created enough of a gap between the one-loss Yellow Jackets and two-loss teams like Utah and Miami that it is unlikely they get jumped for the closer-than-expected win.  

15. Utah (15): The Utes were the more efficient team on offense in a high-possession game with Baylor, especially when it came to third down, and were able to withstand a big day from Bears quarterback Sawyer Robertson to win handily 55-28.  

16. Miami (16): A pick six in the first half broke open the game for Miami, and Carson Beck stepped up with three touchdown passes in a 41-7 rout of NC State. The Hurricanes are now 8-2 on the year with five wins of 25+ points, but those losses to SMU and Louisville have them on the outside looking in of the ACC title picture.   

17. USC (17): The Trojans put together an impressive second half rally after really struggling early against Iowa and eventually scored the final 19 points of the game in a 26-21 win against the Hawkeyes. USC is now 8-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play, staring down a huge opportunity next week with a trip to Eugene to take on Oregon in a battle of former Pac-12 foes. 

18. Michigan (18): Sherrone Moore noted that most teams don’t win football games while committing five turnovers, but the Wolverines found a way to escape Wrigley Field with a 24-22 win against Northwestern. Michigan was previously in a bit of a no-mans land in terms of the rankings, tied mostly to USC and a general trust in the team’s status as a two-loss power conference team. With so much turnover further down in the rankings there won’t be any reason to move Michigan much, but it wasn’t a performance to inspire a jump on voters’ ballots. 

19. Virginia (20): Quarterback Chandler Morris returned to the lineup and Virginia wasted no time putting Duke in an early hole and creating separation in a key win for the ACC title race. The Wahoos are now tied with Georgia Tech for first place in the ACC standings and set to hold on to their position in the top 25 following the 34-17 road win against the Blue Devils.   

20. Tennessee (21):  The Vols weren’t totally crisp, by their own admission, but the result was never in doubt in a 42-9 runaway win against New Mexico State. 

21. James Madison (24): Voters were already ahead of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee with appreciation for JMU, but both rankings will take note of the style points poured on in the Dukes’ 58-10 win against App State. 

22. Tulane (NR): The Green Wave were 26th last week in voting points and proceeded to take care of business with a 35-24 win against FAU to improve to 8-2 on the year and 5-1 in conference play. And while cracking the top 25 will come with some added attention for the final weeks of the season, the real key is securing a spot in the American Championship Game. Tulane will enter Week 13 as one of four teams with just one loss in conference play, with games against Temple and Charlotte left on the schedule. 

23. Missouri (NR): The Tigers were one of the top teams just outside the top 25 in last week’s balloting and in Week 12 were able to hold serve at home with a win against Mississippi State to improve to 7-3 on the season. The Tigers might not be the same team they were at the beginning of the season, but the resume is strong and Saturday night’s performance against a conference opponent with the freshman quarterback is worth rewarding.  

24. North Texas (NR): The Mean Green absolutely pounded UAB, winning 53-24 to improve to 9-1 overall and 5-1 in conference play. North Texas’ win total and the crooked score will get voters’ attention as they look to fill out their ballots, but it’s also a resume that got a boost from Navy’s win against South Florida. 

25. Navy (NR): Taking down South Florida puts the Midshipmen back on voters’ radar three weeks after they had Navy as the No. 26 team in AP poll. Navy is 8-2 with the only losses coming to North Texas and Notre Dame, and now they have a quality win to bolster their resume outlasting USF    

Teams projected to drop out: No. 19 Louisville, No. 22 Cincinnati, No. 23 Pittsburgh, No. 25 South Florida