UFC 304 predictions — Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2: Fight card, odds, preview, expert picks, prelims

The UFC returns to England on Saturday for UFC 304. The card is headlined by a pair of championship matches featuring some of the most talented men in the sport, including welterweight champion Leon Edwards defending his title against Belal Muhammad in the main event.

Edwards has risen to prominence at 170 pounds thanks in large part to the head kick heard around the world. Edwards, who waited a lengthy time to finally get his crack at the welterweight title against Kamaru Usman, was down big on the scorecards in the final round of their 2022 clash. Then, Edwards landed a picture-perfect headkick that knocked Usman out cold to claim the title. Edwards went on to win their rematch in 2023 by decision and carries a 13-fight unbeaten streak into the rematch with Muhammad. The two originally met in 2021 when an inadvertent eye poke by Edwards left Muhammad unable to continue, leading to a no contest. Now, Muhammad looks to get his revenge after winning five in a row since that meeting.

The co-main event is another rematch of a fight that ended prematurely. Tom Aspinall will defend his interim heavyweight championship against Curtis Blaydes. The first meeting only lasted 15 seconds, ending when Aspinall landed a leg kick but suffered a knee injury as he returned his foot to the floor.

The biggest fight on the undercard sees another British star back in action when Paddy Pimblett takes on Bobby “King” Green at lightweight. Pimblett, the brash former champion for Cage Warriors, has had decent success so far in his early UFC career. The lone blemish was still scored a unanimous decision win over Jared Gordon despite many believing he lost the bout. He gets a stern test in the veteran Green, who has had a career resurgence at age 37, winning three of his last four appearances. 

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 304 fight card, odds

• Leon Edwards (c) -260 vs. Belal Muhammad +210, welterweight title
• Tom Aspinall (ic) -370 vs. Curtis Blaydes +290, interim heavyweight title
• King Green -120 vs. Paddy Pimblett +100, lightweights
• Christian Leroy Duncan -150 vs. Gregory Rodrigues +125, middleweights
• Arnold Allen -250 vs. Giga Chikadze +20, featherweights
• Nathaniel Wood -425 vs. Daniel Pineda +330, featherweights
• Molly McCann -360 vs. Bruna Brasil +280, women’s strawweights
• Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley, bantamweights
• Modestas Bukauskas -160 vs. Marcin Prachnio +135, light heavyweights
• Preston Parsons -140 vs. Oban Elliott +120, welterweights
• Muhammad Mokaev -140 vs. Manel Kape +120, flyweights
• Sam Patterson -350 vs. Kiefer Crosbie +275, welterweights
• Mick Parkin -280 vs. Lukasz Brzeski +230, heavyweights
• Shauna Bannon -180 vs. Alice Ardelean +155, women’s strawweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 304 picks, predictions

Edwards vs. Muhammad

Campbell: For whatever he lacks in name recognition, Muhammad more than makes up for in intangibles. He has supreme cardio, a better grappling game than Edwards and a deep well of confidence within himself that has been painstakingly cultivated through years of being overlooked on the elite level. Make no mistake, this will be a close fight that will very likely go the distance. But as long as he can prevent Muhammad from controlling him on the ground — in the same manner he was successful against Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington over his last few fights — this is still Edwards’ fight to win. The advantage in speed, athleticism and explosiveness that Edwards holds over Muhammad should be enough despite the seeming inevitability that this fight ends up being close and competitive.  

Brookhouse: I think this fight will neither be close nor will it go the distance. Edwards is simply the better fighter, as he was when they met the first time and the fight ended with a 19-8 Edwards advantage in significant strikes landed. Edwards’ confidence has only grown and over five rounds, I think he can wear Muhammad down and get the finish despite not being the greatest finisher on the roster. Muhammad is going to be there to be hit too often while trying to force the action and eventually he’ll run into something that hurts him.

Mahjouri: Edwards is well-prepared for Muhammad’s weapons. Muhammad and Kamaru Usman prioritize similar paths to victory by wrestling to overwhelm and control their opponents. Usman is arguably the better wrestler and has the added benefit of striking power. Edwards proved, particularly in the third Usman fight, that he’s well-equipped to lockdown the takedown threat and is a far smoother operator on the feet. We got a short sample of Edwards vs. Muhammad in 2021. Edwards was leading the dance before an eye poke drew a no-contest. Both men have improved significantly, but I don’t think Muhammad has closed the gap. Muhammad could take a round or two but I suspect Edwards will earn the judges’ nods. Edwards via unanimous decision.

Aspinall vs. Blaydes

Campbell: The only blemish on Aspinall’s eight-fight UFC journey was a 2022 loss to Blaydes, which occurred just 15 seconds into the fight when the native of England badly injured his knee. Not only did Aspinall return nearly one year to the day of the injury, he has looked as explosive and dynamic as ever in back-to-back early finishes of Marcin Tybura and Sergei Pavlovich, with the latter giving him the UFC interim heavyweight title. Blaydes remains the elite litmus test for any heavyweight looking to enter the title picture and all three times he has appeared ready to make his own move to the top, he saw his title hopes detonated in often brutal fashion via knockout. And even though Blaydes could have success taking Aspinall down and shouldn’t be taken lightly in this matchup, Aspinall has too many ways to finish the fight and remains motivated, regardless of whether full champion Jon Jones retires without fighting him this fall, to prove that he’s the best heavyweight on the planet. Give me Aspinall by convincing knockout. 

Brookhouse: Aspinall is close to being one of those “if you could create a fighter in a lab” guys. He’s big, he’s fast, he’s powerful, he has great hand speed and he can grapple. Blaydes is a very good heavyweight with power and a good wrestling game. But Aspinall is the total package. Heavyweight can be volatile and it could only take Blaydes landing one of those heavy hands to throw the division into chaos but I don’t see that happening. Aspinall is too good on paper to get caught sleeping against a guy with a very straightforward gameplan of throw big power punches and shoot for takedowns.

Mahjouri: It’s always tricky dubbing someone the future when their fights generally last seconds or minutes, but Aspinall is tough to deny. He seems like the full package: fast, powerful and technical. UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, renowned for his boxing, told CBS Sports that Aspinall has the fastest hands he’s ever seen from a heavyweight. Aspinall is also one of the division’s smartest fighters. Blaydes must score a takedown but we’ve yet to see anyone ground Aspinall. I also have doubts about Blaydes striking defense and ability to absorb Aspinall’s power, particularly after his quick loss to Sergei Pavlovich last year.

Green vs. Pimblett

Campbell: The 37-year-old Green is riding a bit of a resurgent streak with three wins in his last four fights and brings the combination of dangerous striking and stubborn takedown defense to find himself as a slight betting favorite. All of that makes a ton of sense when one considers just how inconsistent the 29-year-old Pimblett has been in five UFC fights. This is the defining fight in Pimblett’s early arc and one he must win in order to have a shot at fulfilling the bright crossover potential he initially brought with him into the Octagon. Yes, there remain a ton of flaws to Pimblett’s game. But he does have a strong chin to cover for mistakes and a natural ability to raise his game to another level when the stakes increase. Green, who has been stopped three times in the last two years alone, often leaves far too many openings given his reckless striking style, which includes stalking forward with his hands down to often dare his opponent to make the first move. This is where Pimblett can rise to the occasion and record the type of breakthrough finish which his hype demands.

Brookhouse: Green is a dangerous opponent for Pimblett. He’s also an opponent who was picked to face someone the UFC sees as a potential golden goose in Pimblett. Everyone is aware of Pimblett’s weaknesses, including UFC matchmakers who likely want to give him time and test his development. That doesn’t mean this fight is a gimmie for Pimblett, he could absolutely get crushed by Green. Still, Green’s flaws may be more of an issue than Pimblett’s in this fight. Pimblett is quick and he should be able to take advantage of Green’s wide-open nature. Pimblett could also score some takedowns and dominate the fight on the ground.

Mahjouri: I’ve never been more intrigued by a Pimblett fight in the UFC. There are still doubts about Pimblett’s competitive potential relative to his high profile but Green presents him with a suitable entry into the UFC’s official lightweight Top 15. It’s Pimblett’s striking defense that gives me pause. Pimblett is a dynamic striking and jiu-jitsu threat but lacks the offensive wrestling to expedite his ground game. If the fight comes down to who lands a knockout or knockdown blow, I favor Green’s intentional hands-down style over Pimblett’s bad habits of keeping his chin up and hands low. Green, 37, enters his 50th professional fight against an opponent eight years his junior, but I think Green has enough in the tank to make Pimblett pay.

Who wins UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2, and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on UFC Fight Night, all from the MMA expert who profited more than $1,200 on UFC main-card picks, and find out.