UFC 304 predictions — Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, expert picks

The UFC returns to England on Saturday for UFC 304. The card is headlined by a pair of championship matches featuring some of the most talented men in the sport, including welterweight champion Leon Edwards defending his title against Belal Muhammad in the main event.

Edwards, the hometown favorite, and Muhammad are meeting in a rematch of a 2021 bout that ended prematurely after an accidental eye poke by Edwards. Both men are on lengthy unbeaten streaks that eventually led Edwards to the championship and Muhammad to a chance to get some revenge and become world champion.

The co-main event is another rematch of a fight that ended prematurely. Tom Aspinall will defend his interim heavyweight championship against Curtis Blaydes. The first meeting only lasted 15 seconds, ending when Aspinall landed a leg kick but suffered a knee injury as he returned his foot to the floor.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 304 fight card, odds

• Leon Edwards (c) -260 vs. Belal Muhammad +210, welterweight title
• Tom Aspinall (ic) -370 vs. Curtis Blaydes +290, interim heavyweight title
• King Green -120 vs. Paddy Pimblett +100, lightweights
• Christian Leroy Duncan -150 vs. Gregory Rodrigues +125, middleweights
• Arnold Allen -250 vs. Giga Chikadze +20, featherweights
• Nathaniel Wood -425 vs. Daniel Pineda +330, featherweights
• Molly McCann -360 vs. Bruna Brasil +280, women’s strawweights
• Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley, bantamweights
• Modestas Bukauskas -160 vs. Marcin Prachnio +135, light heavyweights
• Preston Parsons -140 vs. Oban Elliott +120, welterweights
• Muhammad Mokaev -140 vs. Manel Kape +120, flyweights
• Sam Patterson -350 vs. Kiefer Crosbie +275, welterweights
• Mick Parkin -280 vs. Lukasz Brzeski +230, heavyweights
• Shauna Bannon -180 vs. Alice Ardelean +155, women’s strawweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 304 picks, predictions

Edwards vs. Muhammad

Campbell: For whatever he lacks in name recognition, Muhammad more than makes up for in intangibles. He has supreme cardio, a better grappling game than Edwards and a deep well of confidence within himself that has been painstakingly cultivated through years of being overlooked on the elite level. Make no mistake, this will be a close fight that will very likely go the distance. But as long as he can prevent Muhammad from controlling him on the ground — in the same manner he was successful against Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington over his last few fights — this is still Edwards’ fight to win. The advantage in speed, athleticism and explosiveness that Edwards holds over Muhammad should be enough despite the seeming inevitability that this fight ends up being close and competitive.  

Brookhouse: I think this fight will neither be close nor will it go the distance. Edwards is simply the better fighter, as he was when they met the first time and the fight ended with a 19-8 Edwards advantage in significant strikes landed. Edwards’ confidence has only grown and over five rounds, I think he can wear Muhammad down and get the finish despite not being the greatest finisher on the roster. Muhammad is going to be there to be hit too often while trying to force the action and eventually he’ll run into something that hurts him.

Aspinall vs. Blaydes

Campbell: The only blemish on Aspinall’s eight-fight UFC journey was a 2022 loss to Blaydes, which occurred just 15 seconds into the fight when the native of England badly injured his knee. Not only did Aspinall return nearly one year to the day of the injury, he has looked as explosive and dynamic as ever in back-to-back early finishes of Marcin Tybura and Sergei Pavlovich, with the latter giving him the UFC interim heavyweight title. Blaydes remains the elite litmus test for any heavyweight looking to enter the title picture and all three times he has appeared ready to make his own move to the top, he saw his title hopes detonated in often brutal fashion via knockout. And even though Blaydes could have success taking Aspinall down and shouldn’t be taken lightly in this matchup, Aspinall has too many ways to finish the fight and remains motivated, regardless of whether full champion Jon Jones retires without fighting him this fall, to prove that he’s the best heavyweight on the planet. Give me Aspinall by convincing knockout. 

Mahjouri: It’s always tricky dubbing someone the future when their fights generally last seconds or minutes, but Aspinall is tough to deny. He seems like the full package: fast, powerful and technical. UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, renowned for his boxing, told CBS Sports that Aspinall has the fastest hands he’s ever seen from a heavyweight. Aspinall is also one of the division’s smartest fighters. Blaydes must score a takedown but we’ve yet to see anyone ground Aspinall. I also have doubts about Blaydes striking defense and ability to absorb Aspinall’s power, particularly after his quick loss to Sergei Pavlovich last year.

Green vs. Pimblett

Brookhouse: Green is a dangerous opponent for Pimblett. He’s also an opponent who was picked to face someone the UFC sees as a potential golden goose in Pimblett. Everyone is aware of Pimblett’s weaknesses, including UFC matchmakers who likely want to give him time and test his development. That doesn’t mean this fight is a gimmie for Pimblett, he could absolutely get crushed by Green. Still, Green’s flaws may be more of an issue than Pimblett’s in this fight. Pimblett is quick and he should be able to take advantage of Green’s wide-open nature. Pimblett could also score some takedowns and dominate the fight on the ground.

Mahjouri: I’ve never been more intrigued by a Pimblett fight in the UFC. There are still doubts about Pimblett’s competitive potential relative to his high profile but Green presents him with a suitable entry into the UFC’s official lightweight Top 15. It’s Pimblett’s striking defense that gives me pause. Pimblett is a dynamic striking and jiu-jitsu threat but lacks the offensive wrestling to expedite his ground game. If the fight comes down to who lands a knockout or knockdown blow, I favor Green’s intentional hands-down style over Pimblett’s bad habits of keeping his chin up and hands low. Green, 37, enters his 50th professional fight against an opponent eight years his junior, but I think Green has enough in the tank to make Pimblett pay.