UFC 322: Keys to victory for champion Jack Della Maddalena as the betting underdog to Islam Makhachev

The defending champion rarely plays the B-side, but that’s where Jack Della Maddalena finds himself against Islam Makhachev at UFC 322. Makhachev enters Saturday’s pay-per-view main event as the favorite, but counting out the welterweight champ feels like a mistake. He has a better chance to beat Makhachev than most.

Makhachev’s legacy is the leading narrative for UFC’s return to New York City. The record-setting lightweight champion and active pound-for-pound king moves up in weight to chase a second divisional crown and, with it, an entry into the GOAT conversation. But the shadow Makhachev casts clouds judgment about the man already wearing gold.

“I’ve got everything to prove. But I like it that way,” Della Maddalena told MMA Fighting. “It gives me more motivation. A lot of drive to prove I’m the champion and then solidify my spot as the top guy.

“I’m definitely the underdog. I feel like a little bit I’m being written off. Come fight night, and after the fight, I think there’s going to be a lot of different opinions on it.”

Why the lack of respect? For starters, Della Maddalena is untested as welterweight champion. His win over Belal Muhammad was convincing, but many would sooner forget Muhammad’s grinding style and polarizing personality than acknowledge his talent. By contrast, Makhachev is revered. He set the record for lightweight title defenses, surpassing Khabib Nurmagomedov, B.J. Penn, Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson before vacating and moving up. 

Makhachev’s smothering grappling is a nightmare matchup for strikers, as has been the case with most fighters out of the Dagestani region. Size won’t necessarily save Della Maddalena. By his own admission, he won’t hold much of an advantage despite Makhachev’s 15-pound jump. The challenge lies not in power, but in control. There’s plenty to learn from their last title defenses. Makhachev finished elite striker Dustin Poirier; Della Maddalena outclassed dogged wrestler Muhammad. Poirier sees an opening for the champ.

“It’s all going to come down to the takedown defense of JDM,” Poirier told MMA Fighting. “If he can get back up to his feet, if he can use the fence, or stay off the fence, use his boxing, I think he definitely could give Islam a lot of troubles in the center of the octagon. He’s a great striker. He’s big and powerful.”

Della Maddalena’s secret weapon is hiding in plain sight. Craig Jones, two-time ADCC silver medalist and one of modern Jiu-Jitsu’s most innovative minds, is actively shaping JDM’s grappling evolution. His influence could redefine how Della Maddalena handles Makhachev’s pressure. So much so that American Top Team coach Din Thomas and welterweight contender Sean Brady pick the champ to upset Makhachev.

“He’s a breath of fresh air, and I’m with Brady on this one. I’m picking him to beat Islam,” Thomas told MMA Junkie. “I think that Craig Jones is the answer in this… I think the answer lies within Craig Jones’ approach of blending in a jiu-jitsu style that these guys aren’t familiar with. We’ve seen it when Alexander Volkanovski fought Islam, and we’ve seen it when Jack fought Belal.”

Della Maddalena stuffed six of Muhammad’s nine takedowns, but that wasn’t the key to victory. Muhammad couldn’t keep him grounded. Thomas believes that evolution is Jones’ imprint: Della Maddalena’s growing comfort in transitional grappling.

“I think Jack’s going to be very difficult to take down and hold down. He might be taken down, but I think he’s going to be very difficult to hold down if he gets taken down,” Thomas said. “I think on the feet, he’s so precise. I think he loses the first two rounds possibly, but I think he comes back and does damage later in the fight.”

Della Maddalena bloodied Muhammad at UFC 315, landing 200 strikes in 25 minutes. His longtime coach, Ben Vickers, wants to summon that same brutality against Makhachev. Vickers believes sustained pressure will expose a weakness Makhachev has rarely faced.

“I think Jack will knock him out…” Vickers told Submission Radio. “He’s not used to taking damage. He’s not used to being in tough fights with someone pushing the pace, and he’s been knocked out before.”

It’s a bold prediction, but not without precedent. Poirier already showed that Makhachev can be tested on the feet. If Poirier could trouble him in the twilight of his career, Della Maddalena — a sharper, fresher striker — could find similar success. 

Oddsmakers list Makhachev as nearly a three-to-one favorite. By contrast, a hypothetical fight with lightweight champ Ilia Topuria is considered a pick’em. Many fans and bettors see this as Makhachev’s coronation in a second division. But those closest to the challenger don’t share that certainty. 

“I think Maddalena is the toughest opponent in Islam’s career,” Nurmagomedov told Adam Zubayraev in a Russian-translated interview. “That’s my opinion, not Charles [Oliveira], no one else. None of those other fighters. Not even Ilia, if that fight were to happen. 

“Maddalena is twice the size of Ilia. Taller, bigger, stronger legs, bigger frame. His boxing is just as good. And, in grappling, he scrambles really well if you’ve watched him. For me, if I were preparing Islam for either Ilia or Maddalena, I’d be more concerned about Maddalena.” 

Makhachev’s longtime coach, Javier Mendez, has prepared accordingly. He admitted he’s watched more tape on Della Maddalena than any previous opponent — a rare statement from one of MMA’s most experienced minds.

“Jack is such a tough customer that if we overlook him, which we haven’t. I’ve actually viewed Jack’s fight with Belal five times,” Mendez told MMA Junkie. “I’ve never really done that. That’s how much I respect Jack.”

Makhachev shares his team’s respect for the challenge ahead. He’s built his camp around Della Maddalena’s strengths, splitting time between Russia, Dubai, and New Jersey to find the right sparring partners and body types.

“It’s going to be a hard fight, honestly,” Makhachev told MMA Junkie. “I saw his fight against Belal. He’s good, man. When he began fighting in the UFC, he had problems with wrestling, but now he’s improved because I’ve seen him training a lot with wrestlers and grapplers, and that’s why he’s champion right now. 

“He’s good everywhere. But we will see who’s the best fighter in the world very soon.”