UFC Fight Night — Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot: Fight prediction, odds, undercard for return to Brazil

Charles Oliveira is coming home. Oliveira fights in his home nation of Brazil for the first time since 2020 on Saturday. Lightweight contender Mateusz Gamrot assumes the antagonist role in their UFC Fight Night headliner.

Oliveira (35-11) last fought in Brazil five years ago where he beat Kevin Lee in the final event before the COVID-19 shutdowns. The fight took place in an empty arena, meaning “Do Bronx” hasn’t fought in front of Brazilian fans for six years. It’s bittersweet to think that the entirety of Oliveira’s title campaign — in which he finished Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje to become a fan-favorite star — took place outside of his home nation. Oliveira returns home empty-handed, but he’s eager to parlay a win over Gamrot into a ceremonial BMF title fight with Max Holloway, which he in turn hopes gets him another crack at the UFC title.

“It’s for my legacy,” Oliveira told CBS Sports through a Portuguese interpreter when asked why he demanded to fight on this card. “To be in front of my fans and feel the energy of the Brazilian people.”

Gamrot (25-3) has been waiting for a fight like this. Possibly the division’s best wrestler, Gamrot is not deterred by Oliveira’s ultra-dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu. If anything, he’s excited to face a rare opponent who will indulge in grappling. External factors give Gamrot a surge of confidence. Oliveira was originally preparing to fight a very different opponent in Rafael Fiziev, an elite striker, before Gamrot stepped in. Additionally, Gamrot sees Arman Tsarukyan’s success against Oliveira as a telling sign ahead of Saturday’s fight.

“Oliveira doesn’t like wrestlers,” Gamrot told CBS Sports. “He’s the most dangerous guy on the ground. I understand people don’t want to go to the ground with him. But not me. Wrestling and BJJ are in my DNA. 

“I love exchanging submissions and grappling. I’m happy because my previous opponents always try to stand up. Charles Oliveira will try to submit me or scramble with me.”

Check out the full interview with Mateusz Gamrot below.

Saturday’s Fight Night has a few worthwhile matchups and plenty of Brazilian representation for the home crowd. Two-time flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo continues his bantamweight campaign against rising contender Montel Jackson. Figueriedo returns after suffering a knee injury loss to Cory Sandhagen, in the fight preceding Sandhagen’s title shot against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 320. Jackson is on a six-fight winning streak in pursuit of his biggest win to date.

There’s also an all-action clash between welterweights Vicente Luque and Joel Alvarez. Luque has seen better days, but he’s one fight shy of potentially tying UFC welterweight records for most finishes and post-fight bonuses. Speaking of finishes, you won’t find a more consistent finisher than Alvarez. All 22 of his professional wins are by stoppage, including seven in the UFC. Alvarez is on a three-fight winning streak after being knocked out by top contender Tsarukyan in 2022.

Let’s take a closer look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event.

Odds via DraftKings

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Oct. 11 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: Farmasi Arena — Rio de Janeiro
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot: It’s easy to picture Gamrot neutralizing Oliveira. The Polish fighter, representing American Top Team, might have the best pure wrestling in the division. Gamrot averages more than five takedowns per 15 minutes, while Oliveira gives up more than half the attempts on him. Oliveira’s razor-sharp submission game takes the pressure off defending takedowns, but Gamrot has the skills to avoid being tapped. Don’t forget: Gamrot beat Tsarukyan in a brilliant five-round grappling display. What Oliveira has going for him is a two-pronged threat. He’s an incredibly potent offensive striker, and his questionable striking defense won’t come back to bite him in this fight. Oliveira can replicate and build on the striking success Dan Hooker had against Gamrot. Admittedly, I am concerned that Oliveira couldn’t finish Chandler over 25 minutes last year. My head says Gamrot, but my heart says Oliveira, and few people exemplify heart like “Do Bronx.” Oliveira via KO3