UFC Fight Night prediction — Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis: Fight card, start time, odds, live stream

UFC Fight Night takes over Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday with a dynamite lightweight main event. Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint Denis are two of the division’s more reliable finishers, and they look to make a play for the official UFC top 10 on Saturday.

Moicano (19-5-1) has been a UFC fighter for 10 years, but he’s recently become a success story. Moicano’s active three-fight winning streak is the best since his first three fights with the promotion, and it’s coming against arguably better competition. Moicano found success not only in his performances but also with his voice. “Money” Moicano’s explosive and expletive-filled post-fight speeches have made him a hit among regular mixed martial arts viewers.

“Be yourself, but be a little louder. People will pay attention…” Moicano told CBS Sports. “If you try to play a character you don’t like, you’ll hate doing it all the time. For me, I usually talk the way I am. If people like it, I’m a little bit louder. Especially with the emotions. If you have the emotions, let it flow.”

Saint Denis (13-2, 1 NC) is the first French fighter not named Ciryl Gane to headline a UFC card in Paris. “The God of War” is true to his nickname, winning all his fights by stoppage. Saint Denis rode a five-fight win streak to the biggest opportunity of his career, fighting former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier in the co-main event of UFC 299. Saint Denis performed well in Round 1 but succumbed to a knockout blow in Round 2. Saint Denis, who fought Poirier with a staph infection, learned valuable lessons in defeat.

“Never underestimate anybody and be 100% healthy and prepared when you fight,” Saint Denis told CBS Sports. “Everything has been going very fast in my career. There were a lot of things at the time I wasn’t able to manage. When you become a huge fighter in the UFC, you sort of become your own CEO. All this together, I wasn’t able to manage it well. I had no pleasure in going to train anymore. I had to work on a lot of stuff to bring all parameters back to green.”

Check out the full interview with Benoit Saint Denis.

The co-main event also features a big French name as Nassourdine Imavov looks to continue his strong run at middleweight against another division stalwart in Brendan Allen. Imavov is coming off an impressive — and controversial — stoppage of veteran Jared Cannonier. The questionable referee decision left many fans wondering if it was the right call or not. Regardless of feeling, Imavov has only been beaten once in his last seven appearances and that was against former middleweight champion Sean Strickland in a light heavyweight contest. Allen, meanwhile, is also undefeated in his last seven.

“I thought the stoppage was a little early, but it wasn’t his fault,” Allen told CBS Sports about Imavov’s victory over Cannonier. “The punch that started it was very nice but the stoppage was very bad.”

The rest of the undercard is filled with many European talents with a few Americans looking to get back in the win column. Joanderson Brito is set for a featherweight fight with William Gomis in a featured slot. American Bryan Battle is back in an interesting matchup with Kevin Jousset at welterweight. And opening the main card is veteran lightweight Matt Frevola with he takes on French star Fares Ziam. 

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we get to a prediction and pick on the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Sept. 28 | Start time: 3 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: Accor Arena — Paris
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis: Saint Denis’ stubborn defensive gaps should prevent him from being an elite lightweight, but it’ll likely overwhelm Moicano. Saint Denis fights like the Tasmanian Devil, a nonstop whirlwind of a force. Saint Denis pairs crushing power punches with relentless wrestling and solid submissions. The combination makes him a finishing threat at nearly all times. While his 42% striking defense cost him against Poirier, Moicano’s striking isn’t quite at that level. Moicano is one of the top lightweight submission players with good striking defense. Saint Denis and Moicano have advantages in striking and jiu-jitsu respectively, but Saint Denis’ advantage is a bigger immediate threat. How effectively wrestling is used could be a determining factor, but I suspect Moicano’s imperfect chin will be his downfall at age 35. Saint Denis via KO2