UFC Fight Night — Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen: Predictions, odds, undercard, start time in Vancouver

VANCOUVER — Brendan Allen stands in the way of Reinier de Ridder’s audition for a UFC middleweight title shot. An impressive showcase at UFC Fight Night is paramount if De Ridder wants to improve his case for a fight with Khamzat Chimaev.

De Ridder (21-2) was originally scheduled to fight Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez on Saturday, part of a spiritual sweepstakes to find Chimaev’s next challenger. The other half of the equation is Nassourdine Imavov, who beat Caio Borralho last month. De Ridder is grateful that Allen stepped up on short notice, but knows a finish is crucial against an opponent less lauded than Hernandez.

“It still means something beating him,” De Ridder told CBS Sports of Allen. “He had close fights with Imavov and ‘Fluffy.’ At least he has history with top guys. I think if I’m the first guy, of the three, to finish him, that means something.”

There isn’t a rigid linear path to earning a title shot. Imavov (No. 2) will be ranked higher in the UFC’s official middleweight rankings even if De Ridder beats Allen. Imavov also has higher-ranked wins on his record. But De Ridder will have a couple of things going for him with another win: a 5-0 UFC run in 11 months, and a strength of schedule that makes him a reliable challenger in a pinch.

“I’ve done a lot this year. Imavov has done a lot as well, of course. I say we could have figured out together here as well. He could have said, ‘Yes.’ He could have shown up,” De Ridder said of Imavov. “I know there are a lot of reasons not to. He just fought, but if you really wanted to figure out who the next guy was, he could have been here.”

Allen (25-7) has a stubbornness to him. It’s served him well for most of his career, but sometimes raises eyebrows. Allen claims he has a case for having won his fights with Imavov and Hernandez, despite all official judges and polled media members scoring against him. Most believe Saturday’s main event will be competitive, but Allen didn’t seem very concerned with De Ridder.

“His strength is definitely weighing on guys and being durable. His jiu-jitsu isn’t bad at all,” Allen told CBS Sports. “I think I’m pretty good everywhere. Especially when I’m mentally good, locked and focused, I think I’m the best in the world. I think I’ll beat him everywhere.”

Check out the full interview with Reinier de Ridder below.

While De Ridder and Allen fight for supremacy near the top of the middleweight division, numerous fledgling contenders are working their way up the ranks. Jasmine Jasudavicius is Canada’s next hope for a UFC champion. The country hasn’t tasted UFC gold since Georges St-Pierre won the middleweight title in 2017. A win over Manon Fiorot, who recently fought women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko, puts Jasudavicius near the top of the queue.

“All of the above,” Jasudavicius told CBS Sports when asked if the pressure is stressful or a badge of honor. “I’m super excited to be put in this opportunity and this place. To be able to do this is unbelievable. I’m truly looking forward to it. Of course, I’m nervous, but that comes with it.”

“She puts a lot of pressure on people,” Fiorot told CBS Sports when breaking down the fight. “She goes forward every time. She loves to take people down and take the back. I punch and move, and fight with space.”

Aiemann Zahabi, younger brother of St-Pierre’s longtime coach Firas Zahabi, is another rising Canadian star. Zahabi accumulated six straight wins after a rough UFC start. Most recently, he won a controversial decision over former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo. To continue his ascent, he must vanquish recent title challenger Marlon Vera. “Chito” has his back against the wall after a first-time consecutive losses, but hopes his one-year hiatus, used to heal his body and shed his ego, produces results.

“We really didn’t like each other,” Vera said of his failed bid for the UFC bantamweight title against Sean O’Malley. “If I have to be honest, I’m not the most respectful f—ing person. I fought with my dick. I didn’t fight smartly at all. My whole thought process was, ‘I want to kill this guy. I want to hurt him. I want to step on his throat and throw a rug on his face.’ That’s literally how I fought. That’s not good. It’s probably the only time I fought like that. I learned from it. I paid the price. The biggest opportunity of my life, I blew it.”

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday, along with the latest odds, before we provide a prediction for the main event.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Oct. 18 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: Rogers Arena — Vancouver, Canada
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen: Saturday’s headliners bear many similarities. They’re submission specialists who stay in your face with high striking output. Neither are elite strikers nor wrestlers, and both have defensive lapses. Their finishing rates are bizarrely identical: both men have five knockout wins, two knockout losses, while Allen (14) has one more submission win than De Ridder (13). Allen is theoretically at a disadvantage fighting five rounds on short notice, but he has main event experience and doesn’t struggle with cardio. This could be a very close fight, as reflected by the betting odds. De Ridder has a wider submission array, more consistency and time to prepare. He might not have the sturdiest chin, but Allen doesn’t crack that hard. I see De Ridder edging out a close fight. De Ridder via Unanimous Decision