Team USA has taken care of the hard part already at the 2024 Paris Olympics. With two easy wins in group play, the Americans have already clinched a spot in the knockout stage of the tournament. The only question now is who they will face once they get there. This is where Saturday’s matchup against Puerto Rico matters. A victory would give Team USA an undefeated 3-0 record and, depending on the final score, potentially the best point differential in the field as well. That would secure Team USA the No. 1 seed and a more favorable quarterfinal opponent.
An upset loss? Well, Team USA would still advance, but it wouldn’t be quite as clean. The top seed would be gone as Canada and Germany did manage to make it through the group stage unscathed. The road to gold would become that much more perilous, and that’s a fate Team USA is eager to avoid. So with that in mind, here are our best bets for Team USA’s group stage finale against Puerto Rico on Saturday at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Team USA vs. Puerto Rico
Picking against such an enormous 34.5-point spread here is always going to be complicated, but it is especially so given the point-differential tiebreaker at play here. Steve Kerr is on the record: Team USA wants the No. 1 seed. However… it is almost assured that seed with any sort of win. Team USA enters this game with a +43 point differential. Canada went 3-0 but finished with a +20 point differential. Germany went 3-0 as well and currently leads the point-differential standings at +47, but that’s only a four-point lead over Team USA. The Americans just don’t need a blowout to secure the No. 1 seed. Of course, there’s not much Puerto Rico can do to prevent one. It just lost by 41 to Serbia and was beaten by South Sudan in its opener. This might be the worst team in the field. So, tentatively, I’ll pick Team USA to cover simply for the sake of maintaining momentum going into the knockout stage. The Pick: Team USA -34.5
Puerto Rico scored just 66 points in its loss to Serbia. It takes two to tango where a point-total bet is concerned. Team USA is going to cruise to 100 or so points barring an outlier shooting performance, but that won’t mean much if Puerto Rico can’t put the ball through the basket. A hobbled Jose Alvarado isn’t going to cut it. The Pick: Under 189.5
Alvarado was great against South Sudan, scoring 26 points and posting five assists and two steals as well. He also hurt his ankle in that game, playing through the pain… before scoring only two points on 1-of-6 shooting against Serbia. Playing through pain against a Team USA roster well-equipped to keep him out of the paint, Alvarado is going to be overmatched whether or not Jrue Holiday, currently listed as questionable, is able to play. The Pick: Alvarado Under 15.5 Points
