Vergil Ortiz vs. Erickson Lubin fight preview: What to expect when a pair of top 154-pounders clash

At 27 years old and with 23 professional fights on his resume, it’s fair to ask if Vergil Ortiz still qualifies as a prospect. On Saturday, Ortiz will attempt to move further from prospect and closer to world champion when he faces former title challenger Erickson Lubin.

Saturday’s fight continues a run of Ortiz fights against tough opposition that began after muscle disorder rhabdomyolysis sidelined him from August 2022 to January 2024. Prior to that time on the sidelines, Ortiz was a red-hot up-and-comer, racking up tertiary titles at welterweight while struggling to find elite opponents.

After Ortiz returned to action, he campaigned at 154 pounds, and after shaking off ring rust with first-round knockouts of Fredrick Lawson and Thomas Dulorme, Ortiz began to fight the kind of tricky opponents who are often avoided by fighters looking to climb their way to a title shot.

First was Serhii Bohachuk, who entered the fight after defeating Brian Mendoza. Ortiz was truly tested for the first time in his career in that fight, suffering two knockdowns but battling back to earn a majority decision victory.

Ortiz followed the win over Bohachuk with a fight against Israil Madrimov, who gave Terence Crawford all he could handle one fight prior, losing a narrow decision to the elite pound-for-pound mainstay. Ortiz took a few rounds to work out Madrimov’s awkward style, but ultimately took a decision win by wider margins than Crawford had managed.

Lubin continues Ortiz’s attempt to make his first shot at a world championship undeniable. Only two men have defeated Lubin as a professional: Jermell Charlo and Sebastian Fundora, both fighters who have held world championships. The fight with Fundora was a contender for Fight of the Year in 2022.

Lubin has not been active in recent years. Since a somewhat controversial decision over Jesus Ramos in 2023, Lubin has only fought once, beating Ardreal Holmes Jr. in May.

With a win over Lubin, a title shot should be more or less guaranteed for Ortiz. The Ortiz team was already gunning for a shot at WBO champ Xander Zayas when negotiations never got over the finish line, leading to the Lubin fight. Zayas is now reportedly set to face WBA titlist Abass Baraou in a Jan. 31 unification bout. The timing could work out for Ortiz to get a shot at whoever emerges as unified champion sometime in mid-2026.

Let’s take a closer look at the rest of the undercard with the latest odds before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Vergil Ortiz Jr. -1000 vs. Erickson Lubin +600, junior middleweights
• Darius Fulghum -500 vs. David Stevens +350, super middleweights
• Robin Sirwan Safar -700 vs. Derick Miller Jr. +425, cruiserweights
• Eric Priest -3500 vs. Esneiker Correa +1300, middleweights
• Amari Jones -2500 vs. Shady Gamhour +1100, middleweights

Ortiz vs. Lubin viewing information

• Date: Nov. 8 | Location: Dickies Arena — Fort Worth, Texas
• Start time: 8 p.m. ET (main event ringwalks approximately 11:30 p.m. ET)
• Where to watch: DAZN (subscription required)

Prediction

Lubin is a legit opponent for Ortiz, with good power and skills. Ortiz is, however, the better fighter overall. The past two fights have shown new dimensions to Ortiz while answering a lot of questions. Ortiz showed he can get up off the canvas and continue to fight for the win, not just to survive, against Bohachuk. And Ortiz proved he can handle a slick, awkward boxer against Madrimov.

Lubin has enough power in both hands that he could score a knockout, but Ortiz can return fire and is the better boxer. This is all to say that Ortiz is a -1000 favorite for a reason.

Lubin was stopped by both Charlo and Fundora. Though Ortiz has gone to decision in his two most recent fights (the only fights in his career to go the distance), this is the kind of fight where he can get back to stopping opponents. Pick: Vergil Ortiz via TKO8