Which MLB managers are on the hot seat in second half? Cardinals’ Oli Marmol, Blue Jays’ John Schneider, more

As we get primed for the second half, most of our focus will be devoted to the upcoming trade deadline and the various and sundry postseason races. The flipside of that latter consideration is the crop of teams who have already slipped from contention or may be in danger of doing so in the weeks to come. That, in turn, guides us by the hand to the unfortunate gaggle of big-league managers who may see their job security degrade along with their teams’ hopes of relevance in the standings. 

Look across Major League Baseball, and it’s hard to land on any theoretical firing that seems imminent. However, it’s much easier to find managers whose seats may be beginning to heat up, as the time-honored metaphor has it. In no particular order, let’s have a look at the skippers who may need to hold it steady or even improve in the second half in order to remain in their respective dugouts beyond 2024. 

Oliver Marmol, Cardinals 

Last year, the Cardinals on Marmol’s watch endured their first losing season since 2007 and their first 90-loss campaign since 1990. Those uncommon depths weren’t Marmol’s fault, but as we know blame tends to accrue to the skipper. A surprise spring contract extension through 2026 likely made Marmol a bit safer than you might think coming out of that 2023 flop, but he still merits a spot on this list. 

Marmol’s Cardinals right now are clinging to playoff position in the crowded National League wild-card race, but it’s a tenuous hold. As well, they’ve outplayed their fairly dismal run differential by quite a bit, and it’s possible they undergo a second-half correction on that front. If they do miss out on the postseason despite the rebuilt rotation and improved bullpen, then Marmol could find himself imperiled. 

Bud Black, Rockies

The Rockies are an altogether strange organization without a clear vision or top-down baseball-ops strategy. Probably related to that is that Black seems oddly inoculated against job pressure. Still, the reality is that the Rockies under Black haven’t managed a winning season since 2018, and right now they’re on pace for a second straight 100-loss season. The first and only 100-loss season in franchise history came last year under Black. If the losing continues, surely something has to change, right? 

Scott Servais, Mariners 

Servais has a close relationship with M’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, and he’s right now in line to guide them to a fourth straight winning season. That said, the standard in place – given the excellence of the young rotation and the presence of budding superstar Julio Rodríguez in the lineup – is higher than “just” topping .500. Seattle has seen its lead in the AL West whittled down by the steadily improving Astros, and it would hardly be shocking if Houston overtakes them. The AL wild-card race is a competitive one, and the M’s will open the second half in danger of falling out of playoff position. If that happens swiftly enough, then Servais might find himself on unsteady footing.

Pedro Grifol, White Sox

Earl Weaver couldn’t have crafted a winner out of the White Sox rosters with which Grifol has been saddled, but it’s hard to ignore all the losing. Since taking over prior to the start of the 2023 season, Grifol is 88-172, and this season finds his charges on pace for 117 losses. Now consider that general manager Chris Getz will likely pawn off multiple productive veterans leading up to the trade deadline, thus making a terrible team even worse for the stretch drive. Will Getz seek to deflect criticism by canning a manager he didn’t hire in the first place? It seems quite possible. 

John Schneider, Blue Jays 

Are the Jays the most disappointing team in baseball this season? It’s easy to make the case that they are. Coming off four straight winning seasons and consecutive playoff berths, Toronto right now is in last place in the AL East and on target to threaten 90 losses. That’s contrary to preseason expectations. You’ll recall that Schneider’s job seemed to be in danger coming off another early playoff exit in 2023, and the 2024 season thus far has done nothing to improve his standing. If the Jays indeed undertake a deadline sell-off, then GM Ross Atkins might seek to buy himself more time by parting ways with Schneider in the name of a fresh start. Among big-league managers, Schneider is probably on the hottest seat of all right about now. 

Mark Kotsay, A’s

To state the obvious, what’s afflicted Oakland is not the fault of Kotsay – it’s the calculated doing of owner/saboteur John Fisher and his revolting and deeply cynical destruction of the franchise. It’s all of that plus Fisher’s ham-fisted incompetence (a common trait among trust-funders). Still, it must be noted that Kotsay in less than three seasons on the job is already well more than 100 games under .500. There’s been some forward progress in 2024, but it’s not hard to imagine that the A’s decide they need fresh leadership as they abandon Oakland after the current season. 

Dave Martinez, Nationals 

Is Martinez’s time in D.C. running out? He’s in his seventh season as Nats skipper, and the rebuild since they won the belt and the title in 2019 has been a slow and halting one. There have been some strides in 2024, but some of that shine has come off lately. If they stumble badly across the second half of July and into August and slip out of wild-card contention, then Martinez could theoretically pay the price for the stalled organizational reset.