Who would win MLB MVP? Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. making their case

Unlike most other professional sports leagues, Major League Baseball has had two MVPs for a long time. They are split into the American League and National League. 

This has been the case on an annual basis since 1924, though there have been MVPs as far back as 1911. For decades, the league split made perfect sense. The two leagues didn’t play each other at all. They were totally separate other than the World Series, and the awards were for the regular season, so why wouldn’t there be awards for each side? 

Nowadays, with year-round interleague play, it makes much less sense. It’s also tradition and I’m not in favor of changing it. I like dividing it up. What if we didn’t, though? What if there were simply an MLB MVP? 

With a quick shout-out to Bobby Witt, Jr., it seems like most of the debate would revolve around Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani. 

We’ve already had one of those. Judge won the 2022 MVP with Ohtani finishing second and the discussions the last six weeks or so got heated. Ohtani won the 2021 and 2023 AL MVPs, but he’s in the NL now. Both are going to take MVP honors this season with Ohtani becoming the 12th to win three MVPs — only Barry Bonds with seven has won more — and Judge becoming the 34th player to ever win two. 

If there were an MLB MVP, however, we’d be having the Judge vs. Ohtani debate again with a little Witt mixed in. Let’s check it out. All stats through Thursday, which means there would be three games left to swing things. 

Judge’s case

Few in history have ever been able to carry an offense like Judge. Of course, he did get help in the form of Juan Soto this season, but Judge still can form a one-man wrecking crew when he’s on. Outside of Judge and Soto, the Yankees‘ lineup has largely been inconsistent and lackluster. And yet, they won the AL East and might end with the best record in the AL. 

Judge is hitting .325/.461/.708 (226 OPS+) with 36 doubles, a triple, 58 homers, 144 RBI, 122 runs, 10 stolen bases and 10.8 WAR. He has spent most of his time on defense in center field, which is out of position for him. 

He leads the majors in home runs, RBI, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ and WAR. 

Judge has a lead here in so many ways. If someone believes the most valuable player is the best player, that should be Judge. If all-around play is rewarded, we’re talking about arguably the best hitter also putting in lots of time at a premium defensive position. If “value” means you have to be an important part of a playoff team, Judge has that and then some. This somewhat nebulous “fear” factor? C’mon. Judge is an incredibly fearsome presence when he digs in. He just checks off so many boxes. 

Ohtani’s case

The Dodgers won the NL West and might end with the best record in baseball. This is despite a pitching staff ravaged by injuries, not to mention Mookie Betts missing 46 games as well. There has been some help, obviously, as Ohtani isn’t doing it alone — but he has been the team’s heartbeat throughout the season. 

Ohtani is rehabbing his pitching elbow after offseason surgery, so he’s been relegated to designated hitter. From the DH, though, he’s hit .305/.387/.643 (188 OPS+) with 37 doubles, seven triples, 53 homers, 126 RBI, 131 runs, 56 stolen bases and 8.8 WAR. 

It would be difficult to make a case for Ohtani over Judge on any of the above mentioned criteria. Judge is having a better offensive season by most measures, even if it’s close. The team argument should be a wash. Both hitters are absurdly “fearsome,” if you’re into that sort of thing. Judge plays center field and Ohtani is only a DH. 

BUT. 

What about history? 

Ohtani is the first player ever to have a 50-50 season and that just feels special. Remember, Miguel Cabrera in 2012 beat out Mike Trout with relative ease for the AL MVP. The team argument might’ve factored — the Tigers made the playoffs and the Angels didn’t — but I think Cabrera winning the first Triple Crown since 1967 is what swung things heavily in his direction. 

Before Ohtani this season, we’d only seen five players ever even get to 40-40. And he didn’t just get to exactly 50 homers and 50 steals, he blew by 50 in both categories. 

Of course, in order for this argument to fully work, it feels like Judge has to fall short of 60 homers — because if Judge gets there, it’s historic that he has achieved two 60-homer seasons in a three-year span in the era of drug testing. 

If Judge fell short of 60 homers, I do think there would be some movement toward Ohtani due to the 50-50 milestone. 

Witt’s case

Witt is clearly below Judge and the whole 50-50 thing means Ohtani would very likely be slotted above him, too, I think. It’s hard to tell in this fictional world. I just didn’t want to neglect Witt for this exercise because he’s having a season that merits inclusion in the discussion. 

Witt is hitting .332/.389/.591 (171 OPS+) with 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 homers, 109 RBI, 124 runs, 31 stolen bases and 9.3 WAR. He leads the majors with 209 hits and would win the MLB batting title in this world where we eliminated awards and honors based on leagues. 

It is truly one of the greatest seasons in Royals history. George Brett’s 9.4 WAR in 1980 has long held the record for the franchise but Witt is now right there. In and of itself, WAR doesn’t decide which season is better, it’s just an easy number to illustrate how Witt is in the ballpark with Brett on this one season. 

To be clear, I personally think you could make a strong case for Witt to be voted over Ohtani here due to the whole DH vs. excellent defensive shortstop comparison. The argument would be that Ohtani’s offensive advantages over Witt are not enough to overcome the gap in defensive contributions. 

I’m just saying that I feel like the voting body would give Ohtani the nod. 

The Decision

I think Judge would pull this off with Ohtani in second, but it would not be unanimous. There would be plenty of Ohtani first-place votes. I think Witt might be able to grab some second-place votes, but not many. He’d be a firm third.