Will Brinson’s NFL Week 15 picks, best bets: Bill Belichick’s future in Chapel Hill, Bills knock off Lions

Bill Belichick is coaching the North Carolina Tar Heels. Putting aside the fact that I now have to soufflé and eat on live video my column declaring it impossible and claiming Belichick’s interview with Chapel Hill was just a publicity stunt, this is one of the most fascinating moves in college football history and the biggest story of the next eight months. It’s not close, really, even if you include the 12-team playoff and the eventual national championship. 

Title teams come and go. Conference realignment’s muddied the waters in terms of how to value teams historically, at least for in the immediate moment. Belichick’s venture into collegiate athletics is a once-in-a-lifetime move that will be scrutinized beyond any single game. 

As an NC State fan, I’m not afraid to tell you I’m terrified over the whole “Chapel Bill” concept. Belichick is the greatest professional football coach in the history of the game (for now, Andy Reid’s dynasty pending) and he knows how to build and run a program. If it translates to the college level, the Tar Heels are going to be a problem. 

But if I take my fan pants off for a second and put on my professional football analyst pants for a moment, I think it’s fair to say no one knows how this will pan out. I’ve listened to roughly 40,000 minutes of podcasts and interviews and discussion on Belichick to Carolina over the last week and I feel qualified to tell you there’s a lot of confidence in both directions, even when it comes to fans of the school and diehard Belichick stans. 

And it’s fair! We’re talking about a 72-year-old coach with zero college coaching experience diving headfirst into an ACC program without any lengthy history of success at a time when the landscape is changing by the minute. Most longtime coaches either don’t know how to handle the issues surrounding NIL and the transfer portal or decided it wasn’t worth dealing with and got out of the game. 

Belichick’s close friend Nick Saban even walked away just a year ago, despite still finding plenty of success at Alabama. 

You can also use Saban to argue the other side of the coin: undoubtedly Belichick discussed this move with Saban before he made it. And Belichick presented Carolina administrators with a lengthy presentation as to how and why he’ll be successful building a professional program in Chapel Hill. NIL isn’t unlike a a salary cap now and Belichick got the Tar Heels to quintuple theirs. The portal isn’t unlike free agency now, and playing for Belichick should, in theory, be an attractive destination, especially given his promise to create an NFL pipeline. 

But when you hear Belichick’s old players discuss how he’d operate with young college kids, it’s also difficult to grasp the idea of the gruff Belichick working with what amounts to a large group of semi-professional, moody teenagers. Kids stick around longer and Belichick landing some “veterans” will certainly create a sturdier roster, but these kids can also leave after a single season, whenever they feel like and for whatever reason they want. 

You couldn’t pay me to take the Under, but seeing the Carolina win total set at 6.5 (with a juiced Over) or 7.5 (with the Over at plus money) is somewhat telling. That number will almost certainly creep up if Bill brings in piles of talent. And the Tar Heels schedule, simply by being an ACC team, isn’t overly challenging in 2025. 

But because of the hype and Belichick’s history of winning and the cost of what Carolina sunk into bringing the former Patriots coach to Chapel Hill, there’s almost no middle ground here. If Belichick wins less than eight games in his first year, it’s hard to view things as a success right out of the gate. Even an 8-4 season and a Pop Tarts Bowl berth, while a strong effort for a lot of college teams, won’t feel like a massive success given Belichick’s history of winning. 

We don’t know the time frame on this gambit either, given Belichick’s age. And we don’t know what the plan is after Bill just yet, given the rumors of a succession plan involving his son. If you told me he went 7-5 twice and left for the NFL or retired, I’d believe you. If you told me he made the playoff his first year, I wouldn’t threaten to eat more paper, because it’s at least believable. 

Everything is on the table outside of the middle ground. I’m both fascinated and petrified to watch. Onto the Week 15 best bets. 

Week 15 best bets 

Rams (+2.5) vs. 49ers

We have an official Rams 10 unit play watch in effect folks. Matthew Stafford is COOKING right now, having not thrown an interception for four weeks as the Rams got themselves right back into the playoff mix, winning three of four after a post-bye three-game win streak. Like that Hansel, they’re just so damn hot right now. Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp are playing incredible football, Blake Corum is mixing in well with Kyren Williams and the offensive line is getting healthy at the right time. The young defense is starting to play really well too, even though it gave up six touchdowns to Josh Allen last week (he’s not of this earth at the moment). The 49ers are devastated with injuries currently and find themselves losing more people by the moment. This San Francisco defense isn’t the elite unit it once was and Stafford should be able to move the ball. Brock Purdy‘s played well this season but he’s down weapons and banged up a bit himself. I think the Rams take care of business and keep their NFC West and postseason hopes alive. Worth noting: Los Angeles is 12-3 against the spread in its last 15 December games under Sean McVay. 

Bills (+1.5) at Lions

Speaking of Josh Allen, he’s en fuego right now. You almost NEVER see someone boost their MVP chances in a loss, but he did just that with his epic performance against the Rams that nearly got the Bills back into that game (if anything blame Sean McDermott for that one, although people are way over the top on criticizing Buffalo’s coach). The handicap here is almost more about the Lions injuries, particularly on defense, where they’ve been dealt a silly hand full of bad luck, having nearly double the second-closest team in terms of guys on IR on that side of the ball. If Alim McNeill and DJ Reader can’t go on Sunday, James Cook and Ray Davis could run wild. Allen will be active with his legs here too, knowing how important this game is to keep the Bills on pace with the Chiefs for the one-seed. I think we get plenty of scoring, with Detroit’s offense capable of shredding Buffalo’s run defense and Jared Goff having tons of weapons at his disposal, but ultimately the Bills come out of this one with a win.

A.J. Brown anytime touchdown (+130)

Longtime readers know I love a good narrative. There’s the Revenge Game, the Dead Cat Bounce and of course the oooooooooold Squeaky Wheel Game. And this is a prime spot for an A.J. Brown Squeaky Wheel Game. The Steelers are a very good defense and this should be an absolute rock fight on Sunday so scoring could be at a premium. I do not care, however. We just had a week’s worth of chatter about whether or not Jalen Hurts and AJB are actually friends or on the same page or if the Eagles are passing enough. What the hell is going on here? They’ve won NINE STRAIGHT GAMES coming out of their bye … how is there any dysfunction whatsoever with this team??? Regardless, there’s something going on, but we’re not talking about a bad team and a wide receiver moaning publicly. We’re talking about a good team with a great offense and an elite, dangerous deep-threat receiver who is going to get fed in this spot by Kellen Moore on some early deep shots. Even if he just catches a slant in the open field, Brown is always a threat to go the distance. He’s finding the end zone this week. 

Panthers (-2.5) vs. Cowboys

For the first time since 2022 (!), the Carolina Panthers are favored to win a football game. What a time to be alive. They should be favored, too, in this spot. Bryce Young is playing really good football right now. Carolina could be on a five-game winning streak if not for a Chuba Hubbard fumble against the Bucs, a Xavier Legette drop against the Eagles and Patrick Mahomes being a witch. The Panthers defense has dealt with a ton of injuries this year but has played much better over the last month-plus and will be a problem for a Cowboys offense that mostly sputters with Cooper Rush under center. The Carolina offensive line is much improved and giving Bryce time while clearing holes in the run game. The Panthers are just the better football team and are currently capable of hanging with good teams and beating bad teams. The Cowboys are a bad team and Carolina is going to roll in this spot.

Texans/Dolphins Over 47

We’ve got two teams vying for playoff position here, or in the case of the Dolphins, desperately trying to keep playoff hope alive. We have an indoor track. And, most importantly, we have a LOT of explosive playmakers on hand. Nico Collins is due for a monster game and C.J. Stroud also has Tank Dell at his disposal. I’m sure the Texans would love to just pound Joe Mixon every week if they could, but the Dolphins offense is playing too well to simply allow them to run the ball all game and keep up. Tua Tagovailoa has been on fire since his return to the lineup and his weapons are heating up too. Tyreek Hill is finally looking like he might be a little healthier and is also due for a blowup spot. Jaylen Waddle has been very good over the last two weeks and De’Von Achane hasn’t erupted the way we know he can with explosive runs, even though the production has been there through volume. If one team controls this game I suppose it could stay Under but both the Texans and Dolphins are capable of big plays that draw this game into a shootout.