Yankees manager Aaron Boone teases possible lineup change for ALDS Game 3 with playoff elimination on the line

The American League Division Series between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays is relocating to the Bronx ahead of Tuesday’s Game 3. Other than the return home, not much thus far has gone the way of the Yankees, who dropped the first two games of this best-of-five series and thus find themselves on the cusp of elimination. 

Such straits can of course prompt managers to make changes, to try a different mix of talents and deployments in order to keep the season alive. That may indeed be the case with Yankees skipper Aaron Boone. On Monday, Boone was asked about the possibility of lineup changes for Game 3, and he said the following: 

“We’ll see. We’ll see. Yes, but it could be the exact same too. That’s something I’ll kind of work through here the rest of the day and try to have my decision by this evening where I’ll send it out. Could be one or two, but it could very well be the same too.”

That’s something of a non-answer, which is to say it’s common managerial phrasing. When asked more specifically about how veteran right-hander and deadline addition Shane Bieber, Toronto’s Game 3 starter, might prompt such changes, Boone said this: 

“Well, yeah, Shane Bieber, that is the thought. We’re going up against Shane Bieber. That’s how I’m going to formulate the lineup. Shane’s been a reverse this year, been kind of both throughout his career, more of a neutral guy. Then you also have some consideration to what they have in the bullpen, how you space things out a little bit. It starts with the opposing starter.”

The Yankees faced right-handed starters in Games 1 and 2, and Boone used the same starting lineup in each game: 

1. Trent Grisham, CF
2. Aaron Judge, RF
3. Cody Bellinger, LF
4. Ben Rice, 1B
5. Giancarlo Stanton, DH
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B
7. Ryan McMahon, 3B
8. Anthony Volpe, SS
9. Austin Wells, C

The likely path to change would be slotting in Paul Goldschmidt at first base instead of the lefty-hitting Rice even though Bieber is, as noted, right-handed. That would land Rice on the bench or perhaps put him behind the plate over Wells. That latter wrinkle, however, would constitute a notable defensive downgrade at a critical position.

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As for Bieber, yes he’s shown steep reverse-platoon splits this season, but the sample size — he’s thrown 40 ⅓ innings in his comeback from Tommy John surgery — is not sufficient to allow any meaningful conclusions. Over Bieber’s entire career, he shows traditional platoon splits for a right-hander, which means left-handed batters like Rice have been more productive against him at the level of offensive output. Against right-handed pitching this season, Goldschmidt has an OPS of just .619, while Rice has a mark of .860. 

It’s worth noting that run prevention has been a much bigger concern for New York in this series, as it permitted a total of 23 runs in the first two games. Speaking of all this, our Mike Axisa took a more detailed look at what the Yankees need to do to survive another game and perhaps pull off an ALDS miracle comeback.