Zach Eflin trade grades: Orioles get ‘A’ for landing veteran starter from division rival Rays

Major League Baseball’s trade deadline will pass on Tuesday, July 30. While things have been slow thus far this week, it appears that the dams have broken in St. Petersburg, Florida. That’s because, for the second time in a matter of hours, the Tampa Bay Rays have sent a notable veteran packing to a fellow American League contender. 

Early Friday morning, the Rays dealt outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners for a three-player package. (You can read our full analysis of that deal by clicking here.) Now, they’ve shipped right-handed starter Zach Eflin to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for three more players: outfielder Matthew Etzel, righty Jackson Baumeister, and utility player Mac Horvath.

As is tradition here at CBS Sports, we’re offering instant analysis on the most notable deadline deals, complete with grades on how each team fared. Before we get to that analysis, let’s again review the terms of the trade:

• Orioles receive: RHP Zach Eflin
• Rays receive: OF Matthew Etzel, RHP Jackson Baumeister, and UTL Mac Horvath.

Now, onto the good stuff.

Orioles grade: A

Ever since the Orioles reentered the competitive ranks, we’ve wanted them to leverage their prospect depth and lack of financial obligations to land above-average pitchers to improve their chances at winning the franchise’s first World Series since 1983. The Orioles have done just that twice this year: first springing ace Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers, and now lassoing Eflin from their division rival Rays.

Eflin, 30, made 50 starts over the last season and a half with the Rays. He compiled a 3.72 ERA (108 ERA+) and a 7.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Eflin isn’t a big-time bat misser or anything, but he seldom walks a soul and he limits quality of contact because of his ability to entice chases with a broad arsenal. (He throws five pitches 9% of the time or more, including a low-90s sinker, upper-80s cutter, and upper-70s curve.) If we had to guess, he’ll end up being one of the three or four best starters moved at the deadline.

On paper, anyway, Eflin looks like a pitcher who should have a smaller ERA than his current mark. His troubles stem from issues with runners on base. Opponents are batting .311/.348/.437 against him in those situations. For his career, they’ve posted a .778 OPS with a runner on board, as opposed to a .719 figure when no one is on base. 

Eflin joins an Orioles rotation that’s currently staffed by Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, and Albert Suárez. The Orioles are without injured starters Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells — each of those three has required elbow surgery this season. Nevertheless, Baltimore has found a way to rank seventh in rotation ERA and should fare even better now that they can slot Eflin into the middle of its starting five.

That the Orioles were able to swing this deal without giving up anyone we would rank in the top 10 of their farm system is a win. This trade is also perhaps a display of Baltimore’s newfound willingness to pay up financially. 

When the Rays signed Eflin as a free agent, they structured his deal in a backloaded manner that suggested they were going to trade him before next season. Eflin made $11 million last year, he’ll make another $11 million throughout the course of 2024. Come next season, though, his salary jumps to $18 million — or, nearly half the $43 million the Orioles spent on their Opening Day roster entering the 2022 season. Depending on what happens with Burnes, an impending free agent, it’s possible Eflin will be Baltimore’s highest paid player.

Rays grade: C

The Rays entered Friday four games back, yet it’s clear that the front office doesn’t believe this team is as good as their record indicates — likely because they have one of the worst run differentials in the American League. (Run differential is oftentimes a better indicator of a team’s strength than their actual record.) If you need evidence of that assertion, consider how Eflin is the second veteran the Rays have shipped off to a fellow AL contender.

As we wrote in the Arozarena analysis, these deals have crummy optics despite being logical baseball moves. In both instances, the Rays have violated the tacit understanding between front offices and fans, as well as front offices and their players that says winning is what matters. A team that has a decent chance at the postseason this late in the year (and FanGraphs had the Rays’ odds over 17%) shouldn’t be sending good players out, and especially not to their direct competition. Baseball is, at its heart, an entertainment business. The only reason any of this matters — the games, the titles, all of it — is because the teams, players, and fans imbue those things with greater meaning. Trades like the two the Rays made today are a good, unwelcome reminder that it’s all a form of kayfabe. 

If you disagree with any of the above, or with that line of thinking influencing our grade, then fair enough, bump them up a letter. But the point of the game isn’t surplus value or efficiency, and it’s unfortunate that we feel obligated to highlight that truth as often as we do in these kinds of pieces.

Baumeister, 22, was one of Baltimore’s second-round picks last summer. He’s started 18 times this season in High-A, amassing a 3.06 ERA and a 2.12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Baumeister’s best pitch is his fastball, a riser that plays up thanks to his flat and deep release point. He also has a downer curveball, among other secondary offerings, but each of them needs further refinement. The other issue here is command. Baumeister has an aggressive delivery that has helped fuel a walk rate of 5.48 per nine innings. Tampa Bay’s player development staff tends to do well with pitchers; they’ll have their hands full with both Baumeister and Brody Hopkins, but both have middle-of-the-rotation upside.

Horvath, 23, was the other of Baltimore’s second-round picks in 2023. In 71 games at High-A, he’s batted .232/.328/.417. He’s also seen action this season at second and third base as well as in the outfield. Horvath has above-average strength and he likes to lift and pull the ball at extreme rates, which means that he’s on the Isaac Paredes diet. At the same time, he’s also prone to strikeouts and pop-ups that limit his ability to hit for average. It’s unclear if the Rays intend to continue playing him across the diamond, or if they’ll pick a spot and have him settle down. Either way, he’ll go as far as his power takes him.

Etzel, 22, was a 10th-round selection last summer. He’s already reached Double-A, hitting .261/.338/.391 over 32 games. He’s a physical, athletic outfielder whose game has been more geared toward contact than power. 

Part of the Rays’ calculus here is undoubtedly shedding Eflin’s remaining financial commitments. With any luck on their part, they’ll use it to find the next Eflin.